Hector simulation We found simulation largely depending on: Model initialization scheme Lateral boundary conditions Physical processes represented in the model

Hector simulation – case WRF initial conditions 1km resolution WRF domain WRF lateral boundary conditions

16 th November 2005 – single `cell’

16 th November 2005

30 th November 2005 – multi-cell

30 th November 2005

10 th February 2006 –squall -like

10 th February 2006

10 th February T, w

6 th February weak

6 th February

6 th February 2006

Hector simulation – case Radar observedWRF simulated Precipitation

Hector simulation – case Observed and simulated radar reflectivity along the W-E cross section of Hector Observed Simulated

Hector simulation – case Observed (red) and simulated (green) surface latent and sensible heat flux Over the sea Over the land

Hector simulation – case Dornier observed (red) and WRF simulated (green) low level variables Temperature Relative humidity U wind component V wind component

Hector simulation – case Egret observed (red) and WRF simulated (green) high level variables Temperature U wind component V wind component

Hector simulation – case Simulated aerosol effect ? Simulated total rain water Time

Hector simulation – case Simulated aerosol effect ? Simulated total cloud water Time

Hector simulation – case Simulated aerosol effect ? Simulated total cloud ice Time

Hector simulation – case Simulated aerosol effect ? Simulated total snow water Time

Summary Two modes of simulation Two modes of simulation –OF – doesn’t work too well in generality –DA – gives good agreement for a lot of cases, but the statistics show too low cloud fraction. Aerosol effects are present for the 6 th February case. Aerosol effects are present for the 6 th February case. –Need more simulations of different cases to see how robust this is.