Verification of USDA-MARC Heat Stress Forecasts

USDA-MARC Heat Stress Overview Contributions by the National Weather Service Verification of USDA-MARC Heat Stress Forecasts Fostering Agency Relationships

USDA-MARC Heat Stress Overview

Heat waves can have a significant financial impact on feedlot cattle producers Cattle Risk Factors Genetics Health Production Status Previous Exposure to Heat Stress Impacts of Heat Stress

Normal Recognizing Heat Stress No signs of stress

Stage 1 Recognizing Heat Stress Elevated breathing rate Restless Spend increased time standing

Stage 2 Recognizing Heat Stress Slight drooling Animals may group together

Stage 3 Recognizing Heat Stress Excessive drooling or foaming

Stage 4 Recognizing Heat Stress Open mouth breathing

Stage 5 Recognizing Heat Stress Extremely elevated breathing rate with pushing from flanks Open mouth breathing with tongue protruding

Stage 6 Recognizing Heat Stress Breathing is labored, and respiration rate may decrease Head down Not necessarily drooling Individual animals may be isolated from herd

Breathing Rate Equation Studies have shown breathing rate to be a good indicator of cattle heat stress Breathing rate varies as cattle attempt to maintain thermal balance MARC researchers developed the breathing rate equation to predict the animal’s response to different weather conditions Forecasting Heat Stress

Important Weather Parameters Temperature Wind Speed Humidity Solar Radiation Forecasting Heat Stress

Breathing Rate =(2.83 X Temperature) + (0.58 X Humidity) – (0.76 X Wind Speed) + (0.429 X (100 – Cloud Cover)) – Forecasting Heat Stress Predicted Breathing RateHeat Stress Category <= 90 breaths per minuteNormal 91 – 110 breaths per minuteAlert breaths per minuteDanger > 130 breaths per minuteEmergency

Contributions by the National Weather Service

Verify weather elements which are used in the breathing rate equation Identify which element(s) cause the greatest discrepancy between forecast breathing rate and observed breathing rate Provide meteorologically-based recommendations for the breathing rate equation Research Goals

Download observational data from NCDC Acquire archived forecast data from USDA-MARC Develop verification scripts Develop a verification grid Verify heat stress forecasts Map generation of heat stress forecast verification Verification

Observational data ASOS and AWOS sites Surface temperature, surface dew point, surface wind speed, cloud cover up to 12,000 FT Sky Cloud Product Satellite derived product Cloud cover above 12,000 FT Verifying Weather Elements

14 Separate Python Scripts Verification Grid Production Data Quality Control Data Ingest Data Verification Verification Scripts

Verification Grid

GFE (Graphical Forecast Editor) used for verification image production Forecast domain enlarged to include entire heat stress forecast domain Modified scripts used to produce daily precipitation maps Modified GFE SerpTool for final image production Verification Image Production

HTML script with JavaScript embedded Allows for quick and easy navigation of available images Allows the user to select from a host of weather elements Allows the user to select individual forecast days or date ranges Verification Image Display

Finish verifying all of April – September 2008 Begin downloading data for 2009 Continue raising awareness of the USDA-MARC’s work on heat stress Future Plans for the Study

Questions