Statistical Decision Errors in Morality Tales #1 The Boy Who Cried Wolf

H0: There is no beast eating the flock

The townsfolk arm themselves and run to the flock. The boy who is watching the flock awakens the town one night with cries of, “The wolf! The wolf!!” The townsfolk arm themselves and run to the flock. No wolf! Type I error – the classic shepherd’s False Alarm

The boy who is watching the flock awakens the town one night with cries of, “The wolf! The wolf!!” The townsfolk go back to bed (after all, the last alarm was a false alarm). But a the wolf IS eating the flock!!! Type II error – the classic townsfolk’s Miss

While the shepherd boy dreams of little shepherd girls, the wolf eats the flock!! Type II error – the shepherd boy’s Miss

The boy who is watching the flock awakens the town one night with cries of, “The wolf! The wolf!!” The townsfolk arm themselves and run to the flock. No wolf! But a bear is eating the flock!!! Type III error – the shepherd boy’s Misspecification