Knowledge Transfer University of Colorado—LASP Knowledge Transfer and Empirical Modeling Team D. Baker(CU/LASP) R. Weigel(CU/LASP) D. Vassiliadis(NASA/GSFC) A. Klimas(NASA/GSFC) R. McPherron(UCLA) G. Siscoe(BU) N. Crooker(BU) H. Spence(BU) H. Singer(SEC/NOAA) T. Onsager(SEC/NOAA) N. Arge(SEC/NOAA)

Knowledge Transfer University of Colorado—LASP National Space Weather Program Components

Knowledge Transfer University of Colorado—LASP OUR GOAL: Transform Information into Wisdom KnowledgeInformationWisdom “Before you become too entranced with gorgeous gadgets and mesmerizing video displays,let me remind you that information is not knowledge, knowledge is not wisdom, and wisdom is not foresight. Each grows out of the other, and we need them all. " Arthur C. Clark

Knowledge Transfer University of Colorado—LASP Modeling the Solar- Terrestrial System Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling Using Models to Support Customers Knowledge Transfer Science and Technology Center Goals Establish meaningful links and benefits to society Promote links to federal agencies, National Labs, industry, etc. Make an impact on nation’s scientific and/or technological base Add value of national and international impact Innovate in knowledge transfer CU/LASP Partnership with NOAA/SEC SEC is the nation’s official source of space weather alerts and warnings Serves the nation to reduce adverse effects of space weather disturbances on human activities

Knowledge Transfer University of Colorado—LASP Knowledge Transfer Challenges Transition Models to Forecasting Tools Disseminate Results to Space Physics Community Exchange Information with Agency Programs Share Knowledge with CISM Industrial Partners

Knowledge Transfer University of Colorado—LASP Knowledge Transfer Challenges Transition Models to Forecasting Tools Disseminate Results to Space Physics Community Exchange Information with Agency Programs Share Knowledge with CISM Industrial Partners

Knowledge Transfer University of Colorado—LASP Knowledge Transfer in CISM CISM CU/LASP CISM Liaison for Model Evaluation and Test Product Development NOAA/SEC SW Operations R&DSystems University of California Stanford University SAIC University of Colorado NCAR/HAO NOAA/SEC Universi ty of Texas, El Paso Rice University Alabama A&M University NCSA Boston University Dartmouth College

Knowledge Transfer University of Colorado—LASP Atmospheric & Ionospheric Coupling Precipitation And Loss Seed Population Solar Wind Drivers Solar Source Observational Situation— Continuous views of sun in UV, x-rays, visible wavelengths (SOHO, NOAA/SXI, RHESSI, etc.) Continuous data from ACE Excellent data on plasma sheet sources of seed population (CLUSTER, GEOTAIL, POLAR, etc.) Excellent data from SAMPEX, NOAA/POES, POLAR/PIXIE Continuous coverage with SNOE and TIMED SOHO RHESSI ACECLUSTER SAMPEX TIMED SNOE POLAR Studying the Solar- Terrestrial Chain

Knowledge Transfer University of Colorado—LASP Status of Empirical Modeling Work Empirical Model Suite contains a working Sun- to-Earth chain Compiled a set of community- developed empirical models L 1 -Earth Propagation Surface dB/dt MeV Electron Flux External Field VBVB Solar Boundary Measurements ACE Measurements SW Propagation Ap

Knowledge Transfer University of Colorado—LASP Sun Earth Mount Wilson Observatory Solar Magnetograms Wang-Sheely Model modified by Arge Solar Wind Velocity Baker Model modified by Smithtro running at SEC Sun-to-Earth Modeling and Forecasts

Knowledge Transfer University of Colorado—LASP Sun Earth Mount Wilson Observatory Solar Magnetograms Wang-Sheely Model modified by Arge Solar Wind Velocity CISM Energetic Electron Models, dB/dt Model, and Ap model Sun-to-Earth Modeling and Forecasts

Knowledge Transfer University of Colorado—LASP WSA Driving Electron Flux Models Surface dB/dt Ap FIR model of Vassiliadis et al and Threshold Model of Weigel et al L 1 -Earth Propagation MeV Electron Flux External Field VBVB Solar Boundary Measurements ACE Measurements SW Propagation

Knowledge Transfer University of Colorado—LASP Sun Earth Mount Wilson Observatory Solar Magnetograms Wang-Sheely Model modified by Arge Solar Wind Velocity CISM Surface dB/dt Models Sun-to-Earth Modeling and Forecasts

Knowledge Transfer University of Colorado—LASP ACE Data Driving dB/dt Model Surface dB/dt Model of Weigel et al., 2002 L 1 -Earth Propagation Surface dB/dt MeV Electron Flux External Field VBVB Solar Boundary Measurements ACE Measurements SW Propagation Ap

Knowledge Transfer University of Colorado—LASP Knowledge Transfer Challenges Transition Models to Forecasting Tools Disseminate Results to Space Physics Community Exchange Information with Agency Programs Share Knowledge with CISM Industrial Partners

Knowledge Transfer University of Colorado—LASP Sharing Knowledge with Space Physics Community Common framework allows for rapid addition of new models and ensemble prediction Models are presented to research community on a web site with documentation and links to other resources

Knowledge Transfer University of Colorado—LASP Submitting a Model Ballistic Propagation Surface dB/dt MeV Electron Flux External Field VBVB Solar Boundary Measurements ACE Measurements SW Propagation Ap

Knowledge Transfer University of Colorado—LASP Submitting a Model Weimer Propagation Surface dB/dt MeV Electron Flux External Field VBVB Solar Boundary Measurements ACE Measurements SW Propagation Ap

Knowledge Transfer University of Colorado—LASP Knowledge Transfer Challenges Transition Models to Forecasting Tools Disseminate Results to Space Physics Community Exchange Information with Agency Programs Share Knowledge with CISM Industrial Partners

Knowledge Transfer University of Colorado—LASP DoD Customers and Operations Civilian Customers and Operations DoDSEC Rapid Prototyping Centers Verification Documentation CCMC Model Access Validation Metrics Model Flow Space Weather Model Development Communication Targeted Space Weather Research NSF/AF/ONR Living With a Star NASA Multi-University Research Initiatives AF/ONR Core Space Science Research Space Weather Research Community Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling NSF

Knowledge Transfer University of Colorado—LASP Knowledge Transfer Challenges Transition Models to Forecasting Tools Disseminate Results to Space Physics Community Exchange Information with Agency Programs Share Knowledge with CISM Industrial Partners

Knowledge Transfer University of Colorado—LASP Knowledge Sharing with Industrial Partners Boeing Lockheed-Martin SAIC Lockheed-Martin Johnson Space Center Marshall SFC Metatech, Inc. Lockheed-Martin MRC Ball Aerospace Goddard SFC Aerospace Corp.

Knowledge Transfer University of Colorado—LASP Timeline and Milestones Implement other empirical models based on feedback from NOAA/SEC and validation results Work with physics-based modelers to develop a common framework for model output, interaction, and presentation Begin model validation and benchmarking Develop new models based on weaknesses exposed in validation Coupled Global SW/Mag/ITM Available to Transition Coupled Mag/ITM/Ring Current/Rad Belt Model Available to Transition --Standard Mag/ITM/R C/RB Model Runs on Web --Custom Solar/Solar Wind/Mag/I TM Runs Available Seminar Series Established Industrial “Space Weather Fellowships” Established Forecasting Tools Community Dissemination Industrial Partners CISM Presence at Space Weather Week Three Empirical Models Available for Transition --Standard Model Runs on Web --Custom Model Runs Available

Knowledge Transfer University of Colorado—LASP CISM Vision