Sacred & Secular Religion and Politics Worldwide Pippa Norris and Ronald Inglehart

Structure I. Theories of secularization Religiosity & existential security II. Research design III. Evidence IV. Conclusions Advanced industrial societies have become steadily more secular during the last 50 years Yet the world as a whole has more people with traditional religious beliefs than ever before

Book Contents

I:Theories of secularization Max Weber – Enlightenment Rationality The loss of faith Emile Durkheim - Functionalism The loss of purpose due to functional differentiation Stark and Finke - Religious market theory “After nearly three centuries of utterly failed prophesies and misrepresentations of both present and past, it seems time to carry the secularization doctrine to the graveyard of failed theories, and there to whisper ‘requiescat in pace’” Stark and Finke Acts of Faith. Public ‘demand’ for religion is constant Supply-side competition among clergy energizes religiosity Established churches dampen competition Religious participation explained by religious pluralism and freedom of religion

Theory of secularization & security A#1 Societies differ in levels of basic human security A#2 Societies differ in their predominant religious culture Religious values Eg Importance of religion Importance of God Religious Participation Eg Attend religious services Daily prayer or meditation Religious Political Activism Eg Member religious groups Support religious party Religious beliefs Eg Within each religion Moral attitudes Demographic trends H1 H2 H3 H4 H5

II. Research design?

World Values Survey

Classification of societies Catholic (28) Protestant (20) Orthodox (12) Muslim (13) Eastern (6) Post industrial Eg Austria, Belgium, Ireland, Italy Eg Australia, Britain, Finland, Germany, US Industrial Eg Argentina, Croatia, Mexico, Poland Eg Estonia, Latvia Eg Belarus, Bulgaria, Greece, Romania Eg Turkey,Eg South Korea, Taiwan Agrarian Eg Dominican Rep, El Salvador, Peru Eg South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda Eg Armenia, Moldova Eg Algeria, Egypt, Indonesia, Nigeria Eg China, India, Viet Nam Sources: Type of predominant religion: CIA World Factbook; Type of society: HDI UNDP

Core Measures INDIVIDUAL RELIGIOUS PARTICIPATION Apart from weddings, funerals and christenings, how often do you attend religious services? How often do you pray to God outside of religious services? RELIGIOUS VALUES How important is God in your life? How important is religion in your life? RELIGIOUS BELIEFS Do you believe in heaven? Do you believe in hell? Do you believe in life after death? Do you believe people have a soul?

Measures of religious participation

Evidence Cross-national  Comparisons by type of society Time-series  Trends in survey data (WVS, Gallup, EB) Generational comparisons  By birth cohort Sectoral comparisons  Individual-level within societies

III: Evidence

Note: Religious participation: Q185 “Apart from weddings, funerals and christenings, about how often do you attend religious services these days? More than once a week, once a week, once a month, only on special hold days, once a year, less often, never or practically never.” The proportion who attended ‘Once a week or more.’ Source: World Values Survey (pooled surveys, )

Religiosity by type of society

Religiosity & Development

Trends in belief in God Ref Gallup polls & WVS Nation Change b.Sig. (P) Sweden Netherlands Australia Norway Denmark Britain Greece West Germany Belgium Finland France Canada Switzerland India Japan Austria Italy United States Brazil ALL

Trends in European church attendance, Source: Eurobarometer annual surveys

Religious participation in the United States, Note: Q: “How often do you attend religious services?” Never/ At least once a week or more often. Source: US General Social Survey N.43,204 Never Once a week+ Never At least weekly

US denominational identities Note: “What is your religious preference? Is it Protestant, Catholic, Jewish, some other religion, or no religion?” The graph excludes religious identities adhered to by less than 3% of Americans. Source: US General Social Survey N. 43,532 Protestant None Catholic

Strength of US religious identities, Note: Q: “Would you call yourself a strong/not very strong [religious affiliation]?” No religion/ Strong affiliation. Source: US General Social Survey N.43,204 Strong affiliation None

Religious participation by cohort Postindustrial Industrial Agrarian

Religiosity & household income, postindustrial societies Source: WVS

Supply-side theory?

Indicators of supply-side Religious pluralism: the Herfindahl Index (Alesina 2002) The state regulation of religion: Scale measured by Mark Chaves and David E. Cann (1992). Freedom House religious freedom scale, Religious Freedom Index

Religious freedom index: Classification: US State Dept International Religious Freedom, 2002.

Indicators in postindustrial societies

Indicators in post-communist societies Human development index Religious pluralism

Failure of religious markets theory

Yet religious population expands

Religion & demographic trends (Source: World Bank 2003)

Fertility rates by type of society Type of society Nati ons Annual population growth rate (%), Annual population growth rate (%), Most secular Moderate Most religious Total Type of society: Based on mean macro-level religious values measured on the 10-point to ‘importance of God’ scale, WVS Nations: Number of societies Source: World Bank 2003 World Development Indicators. Washington DC: World Bank:

IV: Conclusions

Conclusions 1. Virtually all advanced industrial societies are moving towards more secular orientations. 2. Yet the world as a whole now has more people with traditional religious beliefs than ever before 3. The religion gap becomes increasingly salient on the global agenda, yet the consequences for international conflict remain unclear. Further details/chapters:

Details:

Values & participation

Model AModel BModel C DevelopmentDevelopment + Religious Orientation Development + Religious Orientation + Religious culture b(s.e.)BetaSig.B(s.e.)BetaSig.B(s.e.)BetaSig. SOCIETAL DEVELOPMENT Level of human development (HDI 1998) N/s N/s Levels of economic inequality (Gini coeff.) RELIGIOUS ORIENTATION Religious values (4-point scale) Religious beliefs (4-point scale) TYPE OF RELIGIOUS CULTURE Catholic societies N/s Protestant societies N/s Orthodox societies N/s Muslim societies Constant Adjusted R Models of religious participation