Donald Kohn Fed Vice Chairman (hot). Inflation Risks (factors that suggest or permit raising rates) Increasing wage pressures (Bloomberg: labor costs.

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Presentation transcript:

Donald Kohn Fed Vice Chairman (hot)

Inflation Risks (factors that suggest or permit raising rates) Increasing wage pressures (Bloomberg: labor costs rose fastest pace last quarter in 25 years) Low unemployment (currently at 4.4% and declining—BLS) Inflation expected to remain above 2% (WSJ cites estimates of 2.5% in 2007) Possible minimum wage hike from new Democratic congress (not immediate) Industrial production steady

Low Growth Risks (factors that suggest or permit cutting rates) Growth moderating (Q3 data showing 2.2% annualized rate were above expectations, down from 5.6% Q1, 2.6% Q2; 2007 growth forecasts are low) Favorable inflation expectations and indicators: in October, CPI down 0.5%, PPI down 1.6%, core PCE up only 0.1% points. Declining energy prices (crude oil down to $54 from $68 in August, despite Monday’s rise) Weakening housing market (Bloomberg: new home sales down 2.4%, single-family homes down 23%, a loss of up to 1% of GDP) Recent dollar weakening (plus expected ECB rate hikes; euro below $1.30 on Friday, rebounded Wednesday on higher Q3 data) Lagged effects of past rate hikes (VARs suggest a peak after three quarters, with effects extending further) Inverted yield curve suggests low confidence in future growth

Overall: Hold Steady Why? Declining growth indicators suggest rate cuts within the next six months, but to do so now would be premature. Despite recent downward revisions in inflation expectations, core inflation remains above 2% which remains our primary concern.