International Monetary System, 1870–1973 Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 18-1

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved Preview Goals of macroeconomic policies Gold standard International monetary system during Bretton Woods system: Collapse of the Bretton Woods system International effects of U.S. macroeconomic policies

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved Macroeconomic Goals “Internal balance” describes the macroeconomic goals of producing at potential output (or at “full employment” or with sustainable and effective use of resources) and of price stability (or low inflation).  An unsustainable use of resources (over-employment) tends to increase prices and an ineffective use of resources (underemployment) tends to decrease prices.  Volatile aggregate demand and output tend to create volatile prices. And volatile prices makes planning for the future more difficult, imposes a cost of adjusting prices, and arbitrarily redistributes income between lenders and borrowers.

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved Macroeconomic Goals (cont.) “External balance” describes a current account that is not “too” negative or “too” positive.  A large current account deficit can make foreigners think that an economy can not repay its debts and therefore make them stop lending, causing a financial crisis.  A large current account surplus can cause protectionist or other political pressure by foreign governments (ex., pressure on Japan in the 1980s and China in the 2000s).

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved Macroeconomic Goals (cont.) “External balance” can also mean a balance of payments equilibrium:  a current account (plus capital account) that matches the non-reserve financial account in a given period, so that official international reserves do not change.

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved Gold Standard, Revisited The gold standard from 1870–1914 and after 1918 had mechanisms that prevented flows of gold reserves (the balance of payments) from becoming too positive or too negative.  Prices tended to adjust according the amount of gold circulating in an economy, which had effects on the flows of goods and services: the current account.  Central banks influenced financial asset flows, so that the non-reserve part of the financial account matched the current account in order to reduce gold outflows or inflows.

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved Gold Standard, Revisited (cont.) Price specie flow mechanism is the adjustment of prices as gold (“specie”) flows into or out of a country, causing an adjustment in the flow of goods.  An inflow of gold tends to inflate prices.  An outflow of gold tends to deflate prices.  If a domestic country has a current account surplus in excess of the non-reserve financial account, gold earned from exports flows into the country—raising prices in that country and lowering prices in foreign countries.  Goods from the domestic country become expensive and goods from foreign countries become cheap, reducing the current account surplus of the domestic country and the deficits of the foreign countries.

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved Gold Standard, Revisited (cont.) Thus, price specie flow mechanism of the gold standard could automatically reduce current account surpluses and deficits, achieving a measure of external balance for all countries.

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved Gold Standard, Revisited (cont.) The “Rules of the Game” under the gold standard refer to another adjustment process that was theoretically carried out by central banks:  The selling of domestic assets to acquire money when gold exited the country as payments for imports. This decreased the money supply and increased interest rates, attracting financial inflows to match a current account deficit. This reversed or reduced gold outflows.  The buying of domestic assets when gold enters the country as income from exports. This increased the money supply and decreased interest rates, reducing financial inflows to match the current account. This revered or reduced gold inflows.

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved Gold Standard, Revisited (cont.) Banks with decreasing gold reserves had a strong incentive to practice the rules of the game: they could not redeem currency without sufficient gold. Banks with increasing gold reserves had a weak incentive to practice the rules of the game: gold did not earn interest, but domestic assets did. In practice, central banks with increasing gold reserves seldom followed the rules. And central banks often sterilized gold flows, trying to prevent any effect on money supplies and prices.

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved Gold Standard, Revisited (cont.) The gold standard’s record for internal balance was mixed.  The U.S. suffered from deflation, recessions and financial instability during the 1870s, 1880s, and 1890s while trying to adhere to a gold standard.  The U.S. unemployment rate 6.8% on average from 1890–1913, but it was less than 5.7% on average from 1946–1992.

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved Interwar Years: 1918–1939 The gold standard was stopped in 1914 due to war, but after 1918 was attempted again.  The U.S. reinstated the gold standard from 1919–1933 at $20.67 per ounce and from 1934–1944 at $35.00 ounce, (a devaluation the dollar).  The UK reinstated the gold standard from 1925–1931. But countries that adhered to the gold standard for the longest time, without devaluing their currencies, suffered most from reduced output and employment during the 1930s.

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved Bretton Woods System: 1944–1973 In July 1944, 44 countries met in Bretton Woods, NH, to design the Bretton Woods system:  a fixed exchange rates against the U.S. dollar and a fixed dollar price of gold ($35 per ounce). They also established other institutions: 1.The International Monetary Fund 2.The World Bank 3.General Agreement on Trade and Tariffs (GATT), the predecessor to the World Trade Organization (WTO).

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved International Monetary Fund The IMF was constructed to lend to countries with persistent balance of payments deficits (or current account deficits), and to approve of devaluations.  Loans were made from a fund paid for by members in gold and currencies.  Each country had a quota, which determined its contribution to the fund and the maximum amount it could borrow.  Large loans were made conditional on the supervision of domestic policies by the IMF: IMF conditionality.  Devaluations could occur if the IMF determined that the economy was experiencing a “fundamental disequilibrium”.

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved International Monetary Fund (cont.) Due to borrowing and occasional devaluations, the IMF was believed to give countries enough flexibility to attain an external balance, yet allow them to maintain an internal balance and stable exchange rates.  The volatility of exchange rates during 1918–1939, caused by devaluations and the vagaries of the gold standard, was viewed as a source of economic instability.

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved Bretton Woods System: 1944–1973 In order to avoid sudden changes in the financial account (possibly causing a balance of payments crisis), countries in the Bretton Woods system often prevented flows of financial assets across countries. Yet, they encouraged flows of goods and services because of the view that trade benefits all economies.  Currencies were gradually made convertible (exchangeable) between member countries to encourage trade in goods and services valued in different currencies.

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved Bretton Woods System: 1944–1973 (cont.) Under a system of fixed exchange rates, all countries but the U.S. had ineffective monetary policies for internal balance. The principal tool for internal balance was fiscal policy (government purchases or taxes). The principal tools for external balance were borrowing from the IMF, restrictions on financial asset flows and infrequent changes in exchange rates.

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved Macroeconomic Goals Suppose internal balance in the short run occurs when production at potential output or “full employment” equals aggregate demand: Y f = C(Y f – T) + I + G + CA(EP*/P, Y f – T)(18-1) An increase in government purchases (or a decrease in taxes) increases aggregate demand and output above its full employment level. To restore internal balance in the short run, a revaluation (a fall in E) must occur.

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved Macroeconomic Goals (cont.) Suppose external balance in the short run occurs when the current account achieves some value X: CA(EP*/P, Y – T) = X (18-2) An increase in government purchases (or a decrease in taxes) increases aggregate demand, output and income, decreasing the current account. To restore external balance in the short run, a devaluation (a rise in E) must occur.

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved Macroeconomic Goals (cont.) Fiscal expansion (G  or T  ) Exchange rate, E XX II 1 Internal balance achieved: output is at its full employment level External balance achieved: the current account is at its desired level

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved Macroeconomic Goals (cont.) Fiscal expansion (G  or T  ) Exchange rate, E XX II Overemployment + excessive CA deficit underemployment + excessive CA deficit underemployment + excessive CA surplus Overemployment + excessive CA surplus

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved Macroeconomic Goals (cont.) But under the fixed exchange rates of the Bretton Woods system, devaluations were supposed to be infrequent, and fiscal policy was supposed to be the main policy tool to achieve both internal and external balance. But in general, fiscal policy can not attain both internal balance and external balance at the same time. A devaluation, however, can attain both internal balance and external balance at the same time.

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved Macroeconomic Goals (cont.) Fiscal expansion (G  or T  ) Exchange rate, E XX II 1 3 Devaluation that results in internal and external balance: by making domestic goods cheaper, aggregate demand, output and the current account increase. 2 4 Fiscal policy that results in internal or external balance: by reducing demand for imports and output or increasing demand for imports and output. At point 2, the economy is below II and XX: it experiences low output and a low current account

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved Macroeconomic Goals (cont.) Under the Bretton Woods system, policy makers generally used fiscal policy to try to achieve internal balance for political reasons. Thus, an inability to adjust exchange rates left countries facing external imbalances over time.  Infrequent devaluations or revaluations helped restore external and internal balance, but speculators also tried to anticipate them, which could cause greater internal or external imbalances.

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved External and Internal Balances of the U.S. The collapse of the Bretton Woods system was caused primarily by imbalances of the U.S. during the 1960s and 1970s.  The U.S. current account surplus became a deficit in  Rapidly increasing government purchases increased aggregate demand and output, as well as prices.  Rising prices and a growing money supply caused the U.S. dollar to become overvalued in terms of gold and in terms of foreign currencies.

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved Fig. 18-3: U.S. Macroeconomic Data, 1964–1972 Source: Economic Report of the President, Money supply growth rate is the December to December percentage increase in M1. Inflation rate is the percentage increase in each year’s average consumer price index over the average consumer price index for the previous year.

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved Fig. 18-3: U.S. Macroeconomic Data, 1964–1972 Source: Economic Report of the President, Money supply growth rate is the December to December percentage increase in M1. Inflation rate is the percentage increase in each year’s average consumer price index over the average consumer price index for the previous year.

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved Problems of a Fixed Exchange Rate, Revisited Another problem was that as foreign economies grew, their need for official international reserves grew to maintain fixed exchange rates. But this rate of growth was faster than the growth rate of the gold reserves that central banks held.  Supply of gold from new discoveries was growing slowly.  Holding dollar denominated assets was the alternative. At some point, dollar denominated assets held by foreign central banks would be greater than the amount of gold held by the Federal Reserve.

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved Problems of a Fixed Exchange Rate, Revisited (cont.) The Federal Reserve would eventually not have enough gold: foreigners would lose confidence in the ability of the Federal Reserve to maintain the fixed price of gold at $35/ounce, and therefore would rush to redeem their dollar assets before the gold ran out.  This problem is similar to what any central bank may face when it tries to maintain a fixed exchange rate.  If markets perceive that the central bank does not have enough official international reserve assets to maintain a fixed rate, a balance of payments crisis is inevitable.

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved Collapse of the Bretton Woods System The U.S. was not willing to reduce government purchases or increase taxes significantly, nor reduce money supply growth. These policies would have reduced aggregate demand, output and inflation, and increased unemployment.  The U.S. could have attained some semblance of external balance at a cost of a slower economy. A devaluation, however, could have avoided the costs of low output and high unemployment and still have attained external balance (an increased current account and official international reserves).

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved Collapse of the Bretton Woods System (cont.) The imbalances of the U.S., in turn, caused speculation about the value of the U.S. dollar, which caused imbalances for other countries and made the system of fixed exchange rates harder to maintain.  Financial markets had the perception that the U.S. economy was experiencing a “fundamental equilibrium” and that a devaluation would be necessary.

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved Collapse of the Bretton Woods System (cont.) First, speculation about a devaluation of the dollar caused investors to buy large quantities of gold.  The Federal Reserve sold large quantities of gold in March 1968, but closed markets afterwards.  Thereafter, individuals and private institutions were no longer allowed to redeem gold from the Federal Reserve or other central banks.  The Federal Reserve would sell only to other central banks at $35/ounce.  But even this arrangement did not hold: the U.S. devalued its dollar in terms of gold in December 1971 to $38/ounce.

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved Collapse of the Bretton Woods System (cont.) Second, speculation about a devaluation of the dollar in terms of other currencies caused investors to buy large quantities of foreign currency assets.  A coordinated devaluation of the dollar against foreign currencies of about 8% occurred in December  Speculation about another devaluation occurred: European central banks sold huge quantities of European currencies in early February 1973, but closed markets afterwards.  Central banks in Japan and Europe stopped selling their currencies and stopped purchasing of dollars in March 1973, and allowed demand and supply of currencies to push the value of the dollar downward.

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved International Effects of U.S. Macroeconomic Policies Recall from chapter 17, that the monetary policy of the country which owns the reserve currency is able to influence other economies in a reserve currency system. In fact, the acceleration of inflation that occurred in the U.S. in the late 1960s also occurred internationally during that period.

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved International Effects of U.S. Macroeconomic Policies (cont.) Source: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. Figures are annual percentage increases in consumer price indexes.

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved International Effects of U.S. Macroeconomic Policies (cont.) Evidence shows that money supply growth rates in other countries even exceeded the rate in the U.S. This could be due to the effect of speculation in the foreign exchange markets.  Central banks were forced to buy large quantities of dollars to maintain fixed exchange rates, which increased their money supplies at a more rapid rate than occurred in the U.S.

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved Table 18-2: Changes in Germany’s Money Supply and International Reserves, 1968– 1972 (percent per year)

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved Summary 1.Internal balance means that an economy enjoys normal output and employment and price stability. 2.External balance roughly means a stable level of official international reserves or a current account that is not too positive or too negative. 3.The gold standard had two mechanisms that helped to prevent external imbalances  Price specie flow mechanism: the automatic adjustment of prices as gold flows into or out of a country.  Rules of the game: buying or selling of domestic assets by central banks to influence flows of financial assets.

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved Summary (cont.) 4.The Bretton Woods agreement in 1944 established fixed exchange rates, using the U.S. dollar as the reserve currency. 5.The IMF was also established to provide countries with financing for balance of payments deficits and to judge if changes in fixed rates were necessary. 6.Under the Bretton Woods system, fiscal policies were used to achieve internal and external balance, but they could not do both simultaneously, so external imbalances often resulted.

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved Summary (cont.) 7.Internal and external imbalances of the U.S.—caused by rapid growth in government purchases and the money supply—and speculation about the value of the U.S. dollar in terms of gold and other currencies ultimately broke the Bretton Woods system. 8.High inflation from U.S. macroeconomic policies was transferred to other countries late in the Bretton Woods system.

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved Fig. 18-1: Internal Balance (II), External Balance (XX), and the “Four Zones of Economic Discomfort”

CHAPTER 19 MONETARY SYSTEMS PRESENT Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved Preview Arguments for flexible exchange rates Arguments against flexible exchange rates Foreign exchange markets since 1973 Interdependence of large countries The Chaing Mai Initiative for East Asian countries

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved Introduction The Bretton Woods system collapsed in 1973 because central banks were unwilling to continue to buy over-valued dollar denominated assets and to sell undervalued foreign currency denominated assets. In 1973, central banks thought they would temporarily stop trading in the foreign exchange market, and would let exchange rates adjust to supply and demand, and then would reimpose fixed exchange rates soon. But no new global system of fixed rates was started again.

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved Arguments for Flexible Exchange Rates 1.Monetary policy autonomy  Without a need to trade currency in foreign exchange markets, central banks are more free to influence the domestic money supply, interest rates, and inflation.  Central banks can more freely react to changes in aggregate demand, output, and prices in order to achieve internal balance.

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved Arguments for Flexible Exchange Rates (cont.) 2.Automatic stabilization  Flexible exchange rates change the prices of a country’s products and help reduce “fundamental disequilibria”.  One fundamental disequilibrium is caused by an excessive increase in money supply and government purchases, leading to inflation, as we saw in the US during 1965–1972.  Inflation causes the currency’s purchasing power to fall, both domestically and internationally, and flexible exchange rates can automatically adjust to account for this fall in value, as purchasing power parity predicts.

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved Arguments for Flexible Exchange Rates (cont.)  Another fundamental disequilibrium could be caused by a change in aggregate demand of a country’s products.  Flexible exchange rates would automatically adjust to stabilize high or low aggregate demand and output, thereby keeping output closer to its normal level and also stabilizing price changes in the long run.

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved Fig. 19-1: Effects of a Fall in Export Demand Reduction in aggregate demand Depreciation leads to higher demand for and output of domestic products Fixed exchange rates mean output falls as much as the initial fall in aggregate demand

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved Arguments for Flexible Exchange Rates (cont.)  In the long run, a real depreciation of domestic products occurs as prices fall (due to low aggregate demand, output and employment) under fixed exchange rates.  In the short run and long run, a real depreciation of domestic products occurs through a nominal depreciation under flexible exchange rates. Fixed exchange rates can not survive for long in a world with divergent macroeconomic policies and other changes which affect national aggregate demand and national income differently.

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved Arguments for Flexible Exchange Rates (cont.) 3.Flexible exchange rates may also prevent speculation in some cases.  Fixed exchange rates are unsustainable if markets believe that the central bank does not have enough official international reserves.

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved Arguments Against Bretton Woods System 4.Symmetry (not possible under Bretton Woods)  The U.S. is now allowed to adjust its exchange rate, like other countries.  Other countries are allowed to adjust their money supplies for macroeconomic goals, like the U.S. could.

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved Arguments Against Flexible Exchange Rates 1.Uncoordinated macroeconomic policies  Flexible exchange rates lose the coordination of monetary polices through fixed exchange rates. a)Lack of coordination may cause “expenditure switching” policies: each country may want to maintain a low-valued currency, so that aggregate demand is switched to domestic products at the expense of other economies In contrast, “expenditure changing” fiscal policies are thought to change the level of aggregate demand in the short run for both domestic and foreign products.

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved Arguments Against Flexible Exchange Rates (cont.) b)Lack of coordination may cause volatility in national economies: because a large country’s fiscal and monetary policies affect other economies; aggregate demand, output, and prices become more volatile across countries if policies diverge. Volatile aggregate demand and output, especially in export sectors and import-competing sectors, lead to volatile employment. Volatility, not stabilization, may occur.

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved Arguments Against Flexible Exchange Rates (cont.) 2.Speculation and volatility in the foreign exchange market may become worse, not better.  If traders expect a currency to depreciate in the short run, they may quickly sell the currency to make a profit, even if it is not expected to depreciate in the long run.  Expectations of depreciation lead to actual depreciation in the short run.  Earlier we assumed that expectations do not change when temporary economic changes occur, but this assumption is not valid if expectations change quickly in anticipation of even temporary economic changes.

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved Arguments Against Flexible Exchange Rates (cont.)  Such speculation tends to increase the fluctuations of exchange rates around their long run values, as currency traders quickly react to changing (interpretations of) economic news.  In fact, volatility of exchange rates since 1973 has become larger.  But how big of a problem is this?

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved Arguments Against Flexible Exchange Rates (cont.) 3.Reduction of trade and international investment caused by uncertainty about exchange rates.  But precisely because of a desire to reduce this uncertainty, forward exchange rates and derivative assets were created to insure against exchange rate volatility.  And international investment and trade have expanded since the Bretton Woods system was abandoned.  And controls on flows of financial asset flows are often necessary under fixed exchange rate systems, in order to prevent capital flight and speculation.

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved Arguments Against Flexible Exchange Rates (cont.) 4.Discipline: if central banks are tempted to enact inflationary monetary policies, adherence to a fixed exchange rates may force them not to print so much money.  But the temptation may not go away: devaluation due to inflationary monetary policy may still occur.  And inflation is contained in the country that creates it under flexible exchange rates: the U.S. could no longer “export” inflation after  And inflation targets may be better discipline than exchange rate targets.

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved Arguments Against Flexible Exchange Rates (cont.) 5.Illusion of greater monetary policy autonomy  Central banks still need to intervene in the foreign exchange market because the exchange rate, like inflation, affects the economy a great deal.  But for the U.S., exchange rate stability is usually considered less important by the Federal Reserve than price stability and low unemployment.

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved Since 1973 In 1975, IMF members met in Rambouillet, France to allow flexible exchange rates, but to prevent “erratic fluctuations”. In 1976 in Kingston, Jamaica, they amended the articles of agreement for IMF membership to formally endorse flexible rates,  but prevented members from “manipulating exchange rates…to gain an unfair competitive advantage”: no expenditure switching policies were allowed.  The articles allowed “surveillance” of members by other members to be sure they were acting fairly.

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved Since 1973 Due to contractionary monetary policy and expansive fiscal policy in the U.S., the dollar appreciated by about 50% relative to 15 currencies from 1980–1985.  This contributed to a growing current account deficit by making imports cheaper and U.S. goods more expensive.

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved Fig. 19-3: Nominal and Real Effective Dollar Exchange Rate Indexes, 1975–2006 Source: International Monetary Fund, International Financial Studies.

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved Since 1973 (cont.) To reduce the value of the U.S. $, the U.S., Germany, Japan, Britain, and France announced in 1985 that their central banks would jointly intervene in the foreign exchange markets in order to reduce the value of the dollar.  The dollar dropped sharply the next day and continued to drop as the U.S. continued a more expansionary monetary policy, pushing down interest rates.  Announcement was called the Plaza Accords, because it was made at the Plaza Hotel in New York.

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved Since 1973 (cont.) After the value of the dollar fell, countries were interested in stabilizing exchange rates.  U.S., Germany, Japan, Britain, France, and Canada announced renewed cooperation in 1987, pledging to stabilize exchange rates.  They calculated zones of about +/- 5% around which current exchange rates were allowed to fluctuate.  Announcement was called the Louvre Accords, because it was made at the Louvre in Paris.

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved Since 1973 (cont.) It is not at all apparent that the Louvre accord succeeded in stabilizing exchange rates.  The stock market crash in October 1987 made production, employment and price stability the primary goals for the U.S. central bank, and exchange rate stability became less important.  New targets were (secretly) made after October 1987, but central banks had abandoned these targets by the early 1990s.

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved Since 1973 (cont.) Many fixed exchange rate systems have nonetheless developed since  European monetary system and euro zone (studied in chapter 20).  The Chinese central bank currently fixes the value of its currency.  ASEAN countries have considered a fixed exchange rates and policy coordination. No system is right for all countries at all times.

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved Interdependence of “Large” Countries Previously, we assumed that countries are “small” in that their policies do not affect world markets.  For example, a depreciation of the domestic currency was assumed to have no significant influence on aggregate demand, output and prices in foreign countries.  For countries like Costa Rica, this may be an accurate description. However, large economies like the U.S., EU, Japan, and China are interdependent because policies in one country affect other economies.

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved Interdependence of “Large” Countries (cont.) If the US permanently increases the money supply, the DD-AA model predicts for the short run: 1.an increase in U.S. output and income 2.a depreciation of the U.S. dollar. What would be the effects for Japan? 1.an increase in U.S. output and income would raise demand of Japanese products, thereby increasing aggregate demand and output in Japan. 2.a depreciation of the U.S. dollar means an appreciation of the yen, lowering demand of Japanese products, thereby decreasing aggregate demand and output in Japan.  The total effect of (1) and (2) is ambiguous.

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved Interdependence of “Large” Countries (cont.) If the U.S. permanently increases government purchases, the DD-AA model predicts: 1. an appreciation of the U.S. dollar. What would be the effects for Japan? 1.an appreciation of the U.S. dollar means an depreciation of the yen, raising demand of Japanese products, thereby increasing aggregate demand and output in Japan. What would be the subsequent effects for the U.S.? 1.Higher Japanese output and income means that more income is spent on U.S. products, increasing aggregate demand and output in the U.S. in the short run.

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved Interdependence of “Large” Countries (cont.) In fact, the U.S. has depended on saved funds from many countries, while it has borrowed heavily.  The U.S. has run a current account deficit for many years due to its low saving and high investment expenditure.

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved Fig. 19-5: Global External Imbalances, 1999–2006 Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook, April 2007.

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved Interdependence of “Large” Countries (cont.) But as foreign countries spend more and lend less to the U.S.,  interest rates are rising slightly  the U.S. dollar is depreciating  the U.S. current account is increasing (becoming less negative).

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved Fig. 19-4: U.S. Real Interest Rate, 1997–2007 Source: Global Financial Data. Real interest rates are defined as ten-year government bond rates less average inflation over the preceding twelve months. The data are twelve-month moving averages of monthly real interest rates so defined.

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved Chiang Mai Initiative In May 2000, ASEAN countries (Thailand, Brunei, Singapore, Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia) plus China, South Korea, and Japan met in Chiang Mai, Thailand.  They agreed to establish a network of financing for countries with balance of payments deficits.  They also considered coordinating monetary policies to fix their currencies, or to create a common currency, in the future.

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved Chiang Mai Initiative (cont.) ASEAN +3 countries wanted to avert another crisis like the one that occurred in  Banks did not insure (hedge) against a decline in the value of domestic assets, and when value of those assets dropped below the value of foreign currency liabilities after devaluations occurred, many went bankrupt.  Banks expected that that the exchange rate would be fixed, but since 1997 banks have insured against this exchange rate risk.  Thus, one of the reasons for having a fixed exchange rate (to avoid a banking crisis) has been already reduced by banks.

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved Chiang Mai Initiative (cont.) Some countries are interested in developing export goods sectors (ex., clothing, toys, computers).  These sectors would benefit from a low valued domestic currency because exports would be cheap in foreign markets. Some believe that China currently has an undervalued currency for this reason.  But controls on asset flows are necessary to keep investors from buying domestic assets at the fixed exchange rate, thereby driving up the demand of domestic currency and threatening the stability of the fixed exchange rate.

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved Chiang Mai Initiative (cont.) But not all countries may want to follow a fixed exchange rate: central banks may instead target an inflation rate, depending on macroeconomic policy and development goals.  And central banks can directly respond to exchange rate fluctuations caused by rapid changes flows of financial assets, if necessary.  Also, long run changes in the demand of exports (ex., Korean toys) or in supply factors (ex., productivity of labor in Korea) may make fixed exchange rates outdated.

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved Chiang Mai Initiative (cont.) Each major ASEAN member contributed $150 million to a fund for balance of payments problems, and may withdraw up to 2 times their contribution in U.S. dollars, euros or yen if the need arises.  In addition, bilateral loans maybe made between ASEAN and other participating countries.  But it is unclear whether the total fund of about U.S. $ 1 billion is sufficient to maintain a fixed currency rate.

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved Summary 1.Arguments for flexible exchange rates are that they allow monetary policy autonomy, can stabilize the economy as aggregate demand and output change, and can limit some forms of speculation. 2.Arguments against flexible exchange rates are that they allow expenditure switching policies, can make aggregate demand and output more volatile because of uncoordinated policies across countries, and make exchange rates more volatile.

Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved Summary (cont.) 3.Since 1973, countries have engaged in 2 major global efforts to influence exchange rates:  The Plaza accord reduced the value of the dollar relative to other major currencies.  The Louvre accord was intended to stabilize exchange rates, but it was quickly abandoned. 4.Models of large countries account for the influence that domestic macroeconomic policies have in foreign countries.