Global Climate Change: Uncertainties, Risks, and Values in Determining Public Policy “Climate Affairs: A Notion Whose Time Has Come?” Talk presented at the 10th Kuehnast Program University of Minnesota 11 October 2002 Michael H. Glantz, NCAR, Boulder, Colorado

Climate Affairs: aspects of climate Climate VariabilityClimate Variability (seasonal to inter-annual) Climate FluctuationsClimate Fluctuations (decade scale) Climate ChangeClimate Change “Deep” climate change (new global climate state) Extreme Meteorological EventsExtreme Meteorological Events (where weather meets climate) SeasonalitySeasonality

Perceptions of Climate Climate as a hazard Climate as a resource Climate as a constraint In every society climate is a mix of all three, but the proportions vary from one country to the next.

Perception of Climate’s Impacts on Agriculture Weather USDA 1984

Reality of Climate’s Impacts on Agriculture Weather USDA 1984

…as a hazard This is the way that we tend to view climate Its anomalies can often lead to death and destruction There is also a misery factor (lost photos,h having to live in a gym for weeks, loss of pets, heirloom losses, etc Governments most concerned about climate as a hazard. Governments have responsibility for early warnings.

… as a resource Adequate and reliable precipitation, temperature, seasonality, among other climate conditions make climate a resource for many countries As a resource, it provides for adequate food production and water resources in a region Experience from similar ecosystems of coping with climate conditions including extremes can be considered a part of that resource Reliable and credible forecasts on all time scales can be considered a resources as well The careful use of climate information can make a hostile climate less so

… as a boundary constraint In the early 1900s climate was viewed as a constraint to personal as well an national economic development prospects Hot and tropical climates, it was argued, made the people lazy and unproductive in a workplace, whereas seasonal climates of the Northern Hemisphere were invigorating to people and nations This view was challenged as racist but was more or less in place until the mid 1970s!! Global warming will change present constraints while creating new ones

El Niño as a Hazard-Spawner El Niño has not been accepted as a natural hazard even though it meets all criteria However, all would agree that El Niño is a hazard- spawner in the sense that its occurrence has been associated with the likelihood of droughts, floods, fires, etc. around the globe. The same can be said of La Niña

Weather and climate stories are big news items

Global warming and the weather

Media Headlines Worldwide: El Niño

Fostering the notion of Climate Affairs (the purpose) Foster education on climate-society-environment issues Understand how climate affects society and environment Understand how society affects climate and environment Make climate information “usable” –By the public –By policy makers –By businesses

TIME magazine (January 1984): climate connection overlooked

Fostering Climate Affairs (why now?) Climate issues: –Increasingly important to governments, corporations, the public Perceptions: –Climate anomalies getting more frequent, costly and deadly Global warming: –Looming in the 21 st century

Reasons for Concern (climate-related anomalies) Droughts & floods Hurricanes & cyclones Ice storms & frosts Forest and bush fires El Niño & La Niña Infectious diseases Global warming Other (locust, dust storms, haze, etc.)

Need to improve communicating science

Need to improve society’s understanding of science

Area of Concern (the impacts of anomalies) Food production Food security Water resources –Quantity –Quality Energy Public health Public safety Economy Environment Other

What do we need to know? Climate science Climate impacts On ecosystems On societies Climate policy & law Climate politics Climate economics Climate ethics & equity

Climate Science Understand the climate system Understand its components Society is a component

Modeling the Climate System Climate Change Impacts on the United States, USGCRP, 2000

The Climate System IPCC, 1996

Time Series for El Niño (red) and La Niña (blue)

Ocean temperature profile, Equatorial Pacific

Popularizing El Nino

Global Warming What’s happening? Why? Who’s doing it? Who’s affected by it? How do we know?

Climate Impacts On ecosystems –Terrestrial & marine On societies –Industrialized & agricultural Human impacts on the atmosphere –Direct & indirect Methods to assess impacts –Quantitative & qualitative

Venezuelan Mud slides December 1999

Hurricane Mitch from Space

Superstorm 1993 (March 12-15) From the Caribbean to Canada

ENSO: What it can do (based on what it has done in the recent past)

Climate Policy & Law Air pollution, acid rain, ozone depletion, global warming Energy consumption, land-use practices, GHGs emission controls Trans-boundary water issues, coastal ocean issues, air-shed management

International Response to US Pullout of Kyoto Process

Climate Politics White House effect versus greenhouse effect Conservation versus exploitation –Greenpeace versus Wise-Use Technophiles versus technophobes Dependence on free market mechanisms Local, national, regional, global politics

Climate Economics Discount Rates Risk assessments Welfare of present versus future generations Forecast value assessments Prevent, mitigate or adapt to climate variability and changes

Climate Equity and Ethics Inter- versus intra- generational equity Environmental justice Downwind Downstream Disasters and poverty North-South views Polluter Pays Principle Precautionary Principle Nature’s Bank analogy

Where all that C02 comes from (total emissions since 1950 in billions of tons)

Could the 21 st century become … The Climate Century?