July 23, 2009 Climate Change and Energy National and Regional Perspective Ken Mitchell, Ph.D. Energy and Climate Change Coordinator U.S. EPA; Atlanta, Georgia

Global Climate Change  Some Key Messages:  Human activities have led to large increases in heat-trapping gases over the past century  Global average temperature and sea level have increased, and precipitation patterns have changed  The global warming of the past 50 years is due primarily to human-induced increases in heat-trapping gases  Human “fingerprints” also have been identified in many other aspects of the climate system, including changes in ocean heat content, precipitation, atmospheric moisture, and Arctic sea ice  Global temperatures are projected to continue to rise over this century; by how much and for how long depends on a number of factors, including the amount of heat-trapping gas emissions and how sensitive the climate is to those emissions US GCRP, 2009

Climate Change and Energy  An EPA Priority  Reducing greenhouse gases is a top priority for Administrator Jackson  Some key actions taken:  Endangerment Finding  Mandatory Reporting  Renewable Fuels Standard

Proposed Endangerment Finding  Current and projected concentrations of the mix of key greenhouse in the atmosphere threaten the public health and welfare of current and future generations  carbon dioxide (CO2)  methane (CH4)  nitrous oxide (N2O)  hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)  perfluorocarbons (PFCs)  sulfur hexafluoride (SF6)

Proposed Endangerment Finding  “Cause or contribute finding”  The combined emissions of CO2, CH4, N2O, and HFCs from new motor vehicles and motor vehicle engines contribute to the atmospheric concentrations of these key greenhouse gases and hence to the threat of climate change  Federal Register notice 4/24/09  Comment period closed 6/23/09

Mandatory Reporting of GHGs  Required by FY08 omnibus appropriations legislation  Federal Register Notice 4/10/09  Comment Period Closed 6/09/09 Inventory of U.S. GHG Emissions and Sinks:

Covered Chemicals  Anthropogenic GHG emissions covered under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and other fluorinated gases  carbon dioxide (CO2)  methane (CH4)  nitrous oxide (N2O)  hydrofluorocarbons (HFC)  perfluorocarbons (PFC)  sulfur hexafluoride (SF6)  nitrogen trifluoride (NF3)  hydrofluorinated ethers (HFE)  Expressed in metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (mtCO2e)

Who Reports?  Primarily facility, with limited exceptions (e.g., fuel importers, vehicle and engine manufacturers) SectorReporters Electricity GenerationPower plants TransportationVehicle and Engine Manufacturers IndustrialAll large industrial emitters, including those in the following industries: MetalsIron and Steel, Aluminum, Magnesium, Ferroalloy, Zinc, and Lead MineralsCement, Lime, Glass, Silicon Carbide, Pulp and Paper Chemicals HCFC-22, Ammonia, Nitric Acid, Adipic Acid, SF6 from Electrical Equipment, Hydrogen, Petrochemicals, Titanium Dioxide, Soda Ash, Phosphoric Acid, Electronics, Titanium Dioxide Oil and GasComponents of oil and gas systems, Underground coal mining OtherLandfills, Wastewater Treatment, Ethanol, Food Processing AgricultureManure Management Upstream Suppliers* Petroleum Refineries, Gas Processors, Natural Gas Distribution Companies, Coal Mines, Importers/Exporters, Industrial Gases (e.g., HFCs, N2O, PFCs, CO2) *Some upstream suppliers will also be reporting their direct emissions (e.g., refineries)

Thresholds, Methods, and Frequency  Threshold  Capacity-based threshold, where appropriate and feasible; Emissions-based threshold of 25,000 metric tons of CO2e/yr for other sources  Methods  Direct measurement, where available, and facility-specific calculation for other sources  EPA direct reporting system for fuel quantity and quality information  Frequency  Annually for New Reporters (facilities reporting quarterly for existing mandatory programs continue quarterly reports)  First reports submitted to EPA March 31, 2011 for CY2010  Engine manufacturers report for model year 2011

Proposed Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS2)  Proposed revision to current RFS (RFS1) as required by the Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA)  Significant increase in renewables to displace petroleum consumption  Lifecycle analysis for GHGs

Volume Changes Over Time

Greenhouse Gas Reduction Thresholds  Required GHG reduction thresholds for the various categories of fuels  Evaluated over the full lifecycle  Compared to the lifecycle emissions of 2005 petroleum baseline fuels Lifecycle GHG Thresholds Specified in EISA (percent reduction from 2005 baseline) Renewable fuel a 20% Advanced biofuel*50% Biomass-based diesel 50% Cellulosic biofuel 60% a The 20% criterion generally applies to renewable fuel from new facilities that commenced construction after December 19, * EPA is proposing to exercise the 10% adjustment allowance provided for in EISA for the advanced biofuels threshold to as low as 40%

Preliminary Emissions Impacts PollutantChange in total U.S. inventory 1 in 2022 in comparison to RFS1 mandate NOx2.5 to 3.0% HC0.6% PM101.0% PM2.50.3% CO-3.1 to -5.8% Ethanol29 to 33% Acetaldehyde28 to 38% Benzene-1.5 to -3.5% GHG-150 to -160 million tons per year on average (over 30 to 100 years respectively) 1 Includes all upstream and downstream emissions

What about Region 4?

Some key facts about Region 4….  Home to 20% of the population (with a large EJ component)  We generated about 24% of electricity in U.S. (burning coal is a primary fuel source) in 2007  Responsible for about 24% of U.S. CO2 emissions (from power production) in 2007  We use more fuel and drive more miles than any other Region Energy Information Administration Federal Highways Administration U.S. Census Bureau

2007 CO 2 Emission from Power Generation in R4 States Source: Energy Information Administration 20%

2007 Electricity Generation (Electric Power Industry) in R4 States Source: Energy Information Administration 23%

Energy Efficiency  Reduce energy use in buildings  Energy Star  Green Buildings  Connection to water  WaterSense  Energy efficient infrastructure  Connection to materials management  WasteWise  Green remediation opportunities  Promote more fuel efficient vehicles/fuels, better transit options, and smart planning and growth

BioEnergy  Southeast could dominate this industry  Some activities to promote bioenergy production and use in the SE  Southeastern Diesel Collaborative  Biodiesel production in communities and technical training for schools  Agriculture and other Waste-to-Energy projects

Adaptation to Climate Change Impacts  Many concerns for the Southeast….  Most coastline in the lower 48 states  Large at-risk population  Prone to frequent natural disasters  Significant forestry, agriculture, infrastructure, and ecosystem resources  Adaptation planning underway and transportation will be an important consideration Ocean surface temperature during the peak hurricane season, August through October, in the main development region for Atlantic hurricanes. Higher sea surface temperatures in this region of the ocean have been associated with more intense hurricanes. As ocean temperatures continue to increase in the future, it is likely that hurricane rainfall and wind speeds will increase in response to human-caused warming. US GCRP, 2009

What about air quality?  Potential impact of climate change on:  Ozone  Particulate matter  Toxics  Pollen Courtesy of Sustaining the Environment and Resources for Canadians

Questions? Ken Mitchell, Ph.D. Energy and Climate Change Coordinator U.S. EPA; Atlanta, Georgia