Journal of Environmental Law and Litigation University of Oregon School of Law Eugene, OR 11 Sep Symposium: Advocating for an Environment of Equality: Legal and Ethical Duties in a Changing Climate Climate Change and Sustainable Energy Law for Human Development Prof. David R. Hodas Widener University School of Law Wilmington DE

New Paradigms and System Integration V2G concept and update Wind and Solar Potential Energy Efficiency Design of domestic laws and regulations is almost entirely determinative of energy system - need to more than just get the prices correct Design of International Climate Law regime will determine the human development path of all nations, from rich to poor – but especially for poor nations (assuming a rule of law is in place for the poor nation)

Traditional Fuel Use in Africa Traditional renewables: firewood, crop residue, biomass waste from industrial activity In almost all sub-Saharan African countries except it is the largest source of energy; overall 59% of sub-Saharan energy is from traditional renewable sources, but without South Africa it rises to 87% –Angola: 69% –Cameroon: 80% –Congo: 91% –Ethiopia: 93% –Ghana: 73% –Kenya: 78% –Mozambique: 93% –Nigeria: 83% –IEA: “African countries have no excuse for their citizens’ energy poverty

“The consequences for the global climate of policy inaction is shocking” “The world’s energy system is at a crossroads. Current trends in energy supply and consumption are patently unsustainable” “It is not an exaggeration to claim that the future of human prosperity depends on how we tackle the two energy challenges facing us today: securing the supply of reliable and affordable energy supply; and effecting a rapid transformation to a low-carbon, efficient and environmentally benign system of energy supply” “Preventing catastrophic and irreversible damage to the global climate ultimately requires a major decarbonization of the world energy sources” Source: ???? The stone age did not end due to a lack of stones, and fossil fuel age will not end for a lack of fossil fuels Could end for lack of money: $26 trillion investment needed by 2030 to meet energy growth – much of it just to keep exisiting oil fields going Could end due to technology jump shift from fossil fuel to renewables and energy efficiency

The Trillion Ton Cap Limit warming to 2 degree C Next 40 – 50 years – maximum emissions 1 trillion tons CO 2 equivalent Who gets to emit how much? When?

The UK (population 60 million) emits more CO2 than Egypt, Nigeria, Pakistan and Vietnam (total population 472 million) The state of Texas (population 23 million) has a deeper footprint than the whole sub- Saharan Africa (720 million people) The 19 million people living in New York have a deeper footprint than the 766 million people living in the 50 least developed countries The distribution of current emissions points to an inverse relationship between climate change vulnerability and responsibility Source: UNDP 2007/2008 Development Report

Five human development tipping points  Reduced agricultural productivity  Heightened water insecurity  Increased exposure to extreme weather events  Collapse of ecosystems  Increased health risks

Disaster risk is skewed towards developing countries 1 in 19 people are affected in developing countries The corresponding number is 1 in 1,500 in OECD countries A risk differential of 79

Heightened water insecurity – glacial melting Glacial melting posses threats to more than 40 percent of the world’s population. In the arid cost of Peru, 80 percent of fresh water originates from glacial melt. The flow of the Indus, could decline as much as 70 percent In Central Asia, losses of glacial melt into Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers could restrict water for irrigation and hydroelectric power Source: UNDP 2007/2008 Development Report

By mid-2007, actual multilateral financing delivered through UNFCCC amounted to US$ 26 million This is equivalent to one week spending in floods defenses in the UK Amounts are not the only problem. Timing and fulfillment of pledges present further limitations Developed Country investments dwarf adaptation funds Source: UNDP 2007/2008 Development Report

Source: UNDP Development Report 2007/2008

Source: UNDP 2007/2008 Development Report

Global 2ºC pathways and their risks

Emergency pathways: details 2050 CO 2 emissions relative to 1990 Maximum rate of reductions Chance of exceeding 2ºC Peak concentration (Co 2 /CO 2-eq ) ppm Trajectory 1 (least stringent) 50% below3.4%/yr35-71%445 /500 Trajectory 2 65% below4.4%/yr30-66%435 / 485 Trajectory 3 (most stringent) 80% below6.0%/yr24-56%425 / 470 Baer and Mastrandrea (2007) Carbon concentrations in these scenarios peak and decline (rather than stabilize).

Sharing Global CO 2 Emission Reductions Among One Billion High Emitters Hakravarty et al (PNAS May, ) Uses “common but differentiated responsibilities” Allocate emission reductions among high emission individuals Establish per capita emission floor for world’s lowest CO 2 emitters

16 Income and Capacity: showing projected national income distributions in 2010, and capacity in green

Mumma/Hodas Model Global Cap All nations subject to cap Differentiated Allocation of emissions rights Kyoto fundamentally flawed harms LDCs makes CDM and forestry offsets unworkable and leakage unsolvable 3 categories of nations Maximize efficiency e.g., 1 watt solar LED lights – substitute for kerosene and candles— save 190 million tons CO2 save 1.3 million barrel oil/day save $47 billion/year Rule of Law