The Idea of a Virtual Drought The implementation of emergency plans can falter from lack of use Some emergency agencies require “a demonstration of plans” (FEMA) Conditions thus far (OK until last week) suggest that this would be beneficial

A day long affair involving interested stakeholders and officials during which droughts are simulated, drought plans are tested and drought preparedness is evaluated. Virtual Drought

Why Test Drought Plans? 3Clarify roles, responsibilities and interests 3Improve lines of communication 3Capture the social components of drought response 3Provide opportunity to improve drought plan

Interstate Commission on the Potomac River Basin Drought Exercise, 1978 n Water supply utilities in Maryland, District of Columbia and Virginia participated n The exercise was performed to evaluate reservoir operating procedures n An interactive simulation model, PRISM, was used

Benefits of the Exercise n The need for conjunctive system management was recognized n Detailed studies to develop an efficient operating rule were jointly funded n An interstate water management agreement was reached in 1983 The process is now repeated each year to maintain drought preparedness

1 st Virtual Drought Exercise n Held on August 4, 1993 in Seattle, WA in conjunction with the Green River DPS n Included federal, state and local managers and stakeholders as well as tribal representatives n Participants negotiated drought management decisions n Demonstrated the capabilities of the Shared Vision Model n Achieved a high level of realism

Considerations in Virtual Drought Design n Objectives of exercise n Who should participate n Information requirements of participants n Format, agenda and rules of the exercise n Choice of virtual scenario n How model will be used in modes of interaction

Expected Gains from a VDE n JISAO Involvement n Enhanced ability to respond to drought n Improved understanding of roles, responsibilities and interests n Improved lines of communication n Identification of required plan refinements

Requirements of a VDE n Facilitator n Participation of managers and stakeholders n Media or public affairs representatives n Information to support decision making during the Virtual Drought Scenario n A Shared Vision Model n Guidelines for the exercise: including rules, meta rules, and agenda

Briefing n The objectives are stated n The rules are described n Initial conditions are introduced

Simulation (Repeated until the drought subsides) n Participants utilize Shared Vision Models n Participants discuss management strategies and negotiate a decision n A decision is made and implemented n Management actions implemented in Shared Vision Model and virtual scenario unfolds n Update information for participants

Debriefing Lessons learned are evaluated n Operational n Institutional n Modeling Lessons put into action