TECHNOLOGICAL AND BIOLOGICAL MITIGATION POTENTIALS AND OPPORTUNITIES major findings from the IPCC WG III contribution to the Third Assessment Report JOSÉ.

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Presentation transcript:

TECHNOLOGICAL AND BIOLOGICAL MITIGATION POTENTIALS AND OPPORTUNITIES major findings from the IPCC WG III contribution to the Third Assessment Report JOSÉ ROBERTO MOREIRA Biomass Users Network - Brazil CLA Chapter 3 WG III July 18, 2001

NO SHORTAGE OF FOSSIL FUELS

DECOUPLING BETWEEN ECONOMIC GROWTH AND C EMISSION HAS OCCURRED BUT NOT ENOUGH USA China Japan Former USSR

DECOUPLING BETWEEN ECONOMIC GROWTH AND C EMISSION HAS OCCURRED BUT NOT ENOUGH

TRANSPORTATION IS A MAJOR CONCERN

Mitigation options Energy efficiency Decarbonisation –energy sources –CO2 removal and storage Biological carbon sequestration Reducing other greenhouse gases from industry, agriculture, waste management

GHG emissions per kilometer for different vehicle technologies Source: Moomaw et al, IPCC, 2001 gCeq/km

Mitigation options Energy efficiency Decarbonisation –energy sources –CO2 removal and storage Biological carbon sequestration Reducing other greenhouse gases from industry, agriculture, waste management

Long term technical potential renewable and nuclear energy supply Nuclear EJ/yr on average over 100 years 2100 Total Energy Demand for SRES scenario ranges EJ/yr

Mitigation options Energy efficiency Decarbonisation –energy sources –CO2 removal and storage Biological carbon sequestration Reducing other greenhouse gases from industry, agriculture, waste management

Carbon dioxide storage capacities Source: Moomaw et al, IPCC, 2001 Emissions to be avoided: GtC up to 2100

Mitigation options Energy efficiency Decarbonisation –energy sources –CO2 removal and storage Biological carbon sequestration Reducing other greenhouse gases from industry, agriculture, waste management

Biological mitigation potential: 100GtC up to 2050 Emissions to be avoided: GtC upto 2100

Mitigation options Energy efficiency Decarbonisation –energy sources –CO2 removal and storage Biological carbon sequestration Reducing other greenhouse gases from industry, agriculture, waste management

Mitigation potential till 2020(cost<$100/tC) Source: Moomaw et al, IPCC, 2001 Compare to: 3,000-15,000 MtC/yr average to be avoided over 100 years

SRES Range Technological Opportunities Carbon Equivalent Emissions Technology improvements have the potential to reduce emissions by 2010 and 2020 to levels below those in 2000

Conclusions Technologies are available in the short term to stop the growth of global GHG emissions Technologies are available today to mitigate climate change in the long term The real problem of controlling emissions is to overcome the many political, economic, social and behavioural barriers to implementing mitigation options