CCI-HYDR - Climate change impact on hydrological extremes along rivers and urban drainage systems ADAPT – Towards an integrated tool for deciding about adaptation measures – case study: floods Follow-up committee meeting 12 November, Uccle

Overview Derivation of potential climate change scenarios for Belgium Statistical analysis of trends and cycles in rainfall, evapotranspiration and flow series Final selection climate change scenarios for Belgium Impact modelling along rivers and urban drainage systems Flood risk modelling Identification of adaptation scenarios Modelling the effects of adaptation measures Evaluating adaptation measures CC scenarios Occurrence of low and high flows Adaptation to high flows CCI-HYDR ADAPT

CCI-HYDR project - content

CCI-HYDR project - questions

Adapt – project: preliminary results Dender case Social flood impact

Dender case High RT 100Low RT 100Current RT 100

Social hot spots

Social risk modelling – SFI tool Exposure and flood characteristics Adaptive capacity Social flood impact Vulnerability SFI = E x Vp/Ac* * Based on Hilhorst 2004

Indicators of social flood impact Flood characteristics IndicatorThreshold levelData Water level> 30 cm Ourthe: HACH Dender: CCI-Hydr Speed of water riseSudden: no or limited warning time Velocity> 2m/s duration> 12 hours

Indicators of social flood impact Exposure –Location of houses by means of Cadmap and land use maps

Indicators of social flood impact Vulnerability of people indicatordata AgeProportion > 75yNIS Financial situationNIS Health statusHealth survey: Not available at district level Family structureProportion lone parentsNIS NationalityProportion non-belgian nationality (strata 3) NIS Property typeProportion people in one-storey houses To be calculated NationalityProportion non-belgian nationality (strata 3) NIS

Indicators of social flood impact Adaptive capacity of society –Non-technical measures –Availability or resources and distribution across the population –Institutional structure –Human capital –Social capital –Risk spreading processes –Information –Perception of people Data gathered by interviews, policy documents and media

Social risk modelling Weighting –Flood characteristics: water level is most important –Vulnerability: equal weights –Adaptive capacity: equal weights State of affairs – Flood characteristics: in progress –Vulnerability: finalized –Adaptive capacity: in progress

Social flood impact knowledge table High risk area: most severe social flood impacts Medium risk area: social flood impacts can be severe, but less severe than in red cases Low risk area: less severe social flood impacts

GIS output Buildings Adaptive capacity VulnerabilityFlood map

Social impact map

Output: number of affected people per impact categorie Geraardsbergen and Ninove

Scenarios What is a scenario? –An image of the future that are neither predictions nor forecasts but an alternative image of how the future might unfold. (Nakicenovic et al. 2000) Why using scenarios? –Taking socio-economic change into account –To deal with uncertainty –To raise awareness

Socio-economic scenarios Lieven aanvullen? Narrative storylines: IPCC –Containing key elements of socio-economic change Technology Governance Social and political values Demography Economy Estimating parameters (data?) –Ecological vulnerability –Social vulnerability –Economic vulnerability

Stakeholder participation Who? –Decisionmakers at all levels, experts, water managers, interest groups and citizens Why? –Increase social support –Take into accounts stakeholder knowledge How in the Adapt project? –Which measures are feasible in the area? (interviews with water managers) –Which measures are acceptable? (interviews with decisionmakers, public officers, experts and focus groups with interest groups and citizens) –Which criteria are most preferred? (interviews)

ADAPT project - questions