ROLE, CHALLENGES & OPPORTUNITIES for NMHS in SERVICING RISK TRANSFER MARKETS Dr William Wright Team Leader ET1.2 - Expert Team on Observing requirements and standards for climate, National Climate Centre, Bureau of Meteorology, 700 Collins St, Melbourne 3001 Australia. Ph: (61 3)

OPPORTUNITIES Development of weather derivatives sector. Climate forecasting: potential in Australia and Pacific for savings of many millions of dollars, and lives and livelihoods. Well-developed capacity in Australia. Has been eagerly embraced by the agricultural industry, and predictions sought after by Government decision-makers. The Australian aid agency AusAID is funding ABoM to extend this capacity to Pacific small island developing states.

OPPORTUNITIES (Cont’d) Major products in Australia are : - seasonal predictions; - forecasts & warnings; - improved knowledge about underlying climate variability influences; - historical data; - climatologies; - gridded analyses; - geospatially-enabled products; - online, real-time access to many products The Australian Bureau, and others, also monitor climate change (CC), and issue and interpret CC scenarios (fundamental climate variables, extremes, sea-level rise) Underpinning all these services is a need for good, reliable, long-term climate data.

Disaster mitigation – other requirements Risk Assessment requires databases and maps of hazards WMO (2004) recommends: - comprehensive assessment of impacts; - integrated data management system for data specific to certain hazard types. - use best available technology (Internet & GIS) - free and unlimited access to databases - utilise international and regional programs to enhance collaboration and cooperation - individual countries should develop policies that emphasis preparedness over insurance, insurance over relief, and relief over regulation.

CHALLENGES Simply being able to predict disasters doesn’t mean all loss can be avoided! Uncertainty as to future impact of climate change (esp of extremes, & especially at Regional scale) Good services need good data – major challenges in this area NMHS not adequately resourced to provide stewardship of data

Observational quality WMO imposes uniform standards – but not all countries follow them. Automatic Weather Stations (AWSs) – can adversely affect climate record, esp if not well implemented. Maintenance problems – esp. in developing countries Quality control – inconsistent if done at all.

Data availability can be a problem… In many countries, data remains relatively inaccessible in hard copy format Inappropriate data management – need sound systems, software, interoperability Data should be exchanged internationally – but often isn’t. Training needs: observations; analysis and interpretation; communications

Summary of the data issue NMHS ability to provide services depends on : Data, plus understanding and knowledge of weather and climate, which depends on Good data and information collection and management systems, which Is often a challenge,especially in developing countries

RECOMMENDATIONS Need for adequacy in observing networks and to ensure sustainability over time; Need for systematic data rescue programmes/data management systems; Need to leverage regional and international cooperation to facilitate observing capacities and service provision “Governments need to realize that investment in these capacities is an investment towards their socio-economic development" NMHSs need systematic interface with users to understand their needs and requirements, and develop basic products that address these needs Need for awareness-raising among insurance/reinsurance companies, NMHSs, agricultural, finance and development ministries who need to participate in developing these markets