Getting Students to Graduate: The National Context Thomas Bailey National Center for Postsecondary Research Community College Research Center Teachers College, Columbia University Presented at Higher Education in Michigan: Looking Back and Looking Ahead Ann Arbor, Michigan December 10, 2009

What is the Problem? International comparisons Skill needs of the contemporary economy  Some college is necessary for access to decent jobs  Employer needs Continued inequality in higher ed access and completion for low income and minority students

Solution—Increase in Degrees and Certificates Obama Administration  An additional 5 million CC awards by 2010 Gates Foundation  Double the percentage of low-income young people who earn a post-secondary credential by age 26 (from 30 percent to 60 percent) Lumina Foundation  Increase share of population with high quality credentials from 40 to 60 percent by 2050 Cherry Commission  Double the number of graduates with degrees

Community College Degrees have Value in the Labor Market Benefits of an Associate Degree (compared to a high school degree)  Men earn 15 to 30 percent more  Women earn up to 50 percent more Certificates  Positive for women  Uncertain for men Varies by field Earnings benefit of an associate degree is at least half of the benefit of a B.A. Some value in credits even without degrees

Community College Graduation Rates No single definition of graduation rate or student outcomes Student Right to Know (SRK) most commonly available –“Three” year rate for 1 st time, full time, degree seeking students US Rate—22 %

Michigan SRK Grad Rates State graduation rate—15.3% (2004) 2,700 out of almost 18,000 graduate Lowest—Bay Mills—5.7% Highest—Alpena—33.7%

Criticisms of SRK Only full time, first time students The time period is too short Institutional graduation rates count transfers (without graduation) as “non- completers”

Accuracy of the SRK Graduation Rate (National Data) Institutional Rate Individual Rate Three year22.9 %25.5% Six year28.3%45.7% Source: BPS 96/2001

“CC First” PSE Students Total Credits Earned in All PSE Within Eight Years (NELS)

“CC First” PSE Students Percent Distribution by Highest Outcome in All PSE Within Eight Years (NELS)

“CC First” PSE Students in Lowest SES Quartile Percent Distribution by Highest Outcome in All PSE Within Eight Years (NELS)

“CC First” PSE Students who are Black Percent Distribution by Highest Outcome in All PSE Within Eight Years

“CC First” PSE Hispanic Students Percent Distribution by Highest Outcome in All PSE Within Eight Years (NELS)

“CC First” PSE Black Students Percent Distribution by Highest Outcome in All PSE Within Eight Years (NELS)

“CC First” PSE Students in Associate Programs Percent Distribution by Highest Outcome in All PSE Within Eight Years (NELS)

“CC First” PSE Students in Various Groups Percent Distribution by Highest Outcome in All PSE Within Eight Years (NELS)

Educational Access and SES Experience by 2000 for HS Class of 1992

“CC First” PSE Students Percent Distribution by Highest Outcome in All PSE Within Six Years (BPS96)

“CC First” PSE Independent Students in Two Lowest Household Income Quartiles Percent Distribution by Highest Outcome in All PSE Within Six Years (BPS96)

Efforts to Increase Graduation Rates? Many definitions of outcomes—shifting role of community colleges Focus on developmental education Institutional Incentives—Washington State Student Achievement Initiative

What is “Graduation?” Transfer programs growing faster than terminal programs Fast growth of certificates, non-credit, and certifications Many intermediate measures of performance consistent with varied goals of CC students

Many Alternative Outcome Measures Source: Pete Ewell, NCHEMS, “Milestone Events”in a Student Enrollment Pathway GEDABE ESL First College Credit X Credits– 1 Term College-Level [“College Path”] Y Credits–1 Year College-Level [“Transfer Ready”] [“Workforce Ready”] CertificateAssociate Degree Employment [Field Earnings] BA Degree Basic Skills Conversion Rate SRK Completion Rate “Workforce Ready”Employment Rate Skills-Deficient Completion Rate Start Developmental Work Reading Writing Math Complete Developmental Work Reading Writing Math “College Path”Completion Rate Developmental Completion Rate “Milestone Events”in a Student Enrollment Pathway GEDABE ESL First College Credit X Credits– 1 Term College-Level [“College Path”] Y Credits–1 Year College-Level [“Transfer Ready”] [“Workforce Ready”] CertificateAssociate Degree Employment [Field Earnings] BA Degree Basic Skills Conversion Rate SRK Completion Rate “Workforce Ready”Employment Rate Skills-Deficient Completion Rate Start Developmental Work Reading Writing Math Complete Developmental Work Reading Writing Math “College Path”Completion Rate Developmental Completion Rate

Washington State Research Partnership Study of ABE to college transition based on state longitudinal data base –Transition is rare –No detectable earnings benefit with less than 30 credits Introduction of IBEST—ABE to college initiative Development of the Student Achievement Initiative rewarding colleges for intermediate points

For more information: Please visit us on the web at where you can download presentations, reports, CCRC Briefs, and sign-up for news announcements. Community College Research Center Institute on Education and the Economy, Teachers College, Columbia University 525 West 120th Street, Box 174, New York, NY Telephone: CCRC funders include: Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, Lumina Foundation for Education, The Ford Foundation, National Science Foundation (NSF), Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Institute of Education Sciences of the U.S. Department of Education