Should hotels in Thailand damaged by the December 2004 tsunami be rebuilt on the beach? ORIANA FU

26 Dec 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake & tsunami n Greatest earthquake in 40 years n Magnitude 9.0 on Richter scale n Generation of disastrous tsunami in 11 countries bordering the Indian Ocean

Causes Cause: slippage of about 600 miles (1,000 km) of the boundary between the India and Burma plates off the west coast of northern Sumatra n Location: Beneath the Indian Ocean west of Sumatra, Indonesia n Overriding plate: Burma plate n Subducting plate: Indian plate India plate moves toward the northeast at a rate of about 6 cm/year relative to the Burma plate

Convergence of other plates at the Sunda trench strains the area  partitioned into thrust- faulting Releases of stresses that develop as the India plate subducts beneath the overriding Burma plate

Effects Economic Damage/ casualties Ecological/ Environmental Impacts the deadliest tsunami in recorded history The earthquake was the fourth most powerful recorded since 1900 Specifically 25,000 hectares of mangroves  $118.2 mn 30% of 97,250 hectares of coral reefs  mn 20% of 600 hectares of seagrass beds were damaged  $2.3 mn Area According to International Monetary Fund, limited effect on economies severe damage inflicted on ecosystems spread of solid and liquid waste and industrial chemicals, water pollution India: 0.25 per cent of GDP Indonesia: percentage points (more than offset by reconstruction aid) Thailand: 0.5-1percentage point ($US1.5 billion relief package) U.S. Geological Survey: 283,100 killed 14,100missing 1,126,900 displaced 90,000 houses destroyed Humanitarian great deal of humanitarian aid needed Epidemics provide sanitation facilities and fresh drinking water to contain spread of diseases great deal of humanitarian aid needed Epidemics provide sanitation facilities and fresh drinking water to contain spread of diseases Nations all over the world provided over USD 3 billion in aid for damaged regions

Most affected countries Southeast Asia and beyond: Indonesia, Sri Lanka, India, Thailand, the Maldives, Somalia, Myanmar, Malaysia, Seychelles and others. Many other countries, especially Australia and those in Europe, had large numbers of citizens travelling in the region on holiday. Countries like Sweden and Germany lost over 500 citizens in the disaster. Source: wikipedia

The issue Balance the RISKS and BENEFITS of rebuilding the resorts

RISKS n Possible aftershock  numerous detected (The U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center: 68 aftershocks as of Dec 29)  Largest (magnitude of 7.1) occurred about 3 hours after the main shock  13 have magnitudes of 6.0 or larger  know from past experience that the number of aftershocks will decrease with time  However, the number of aftershocks can be quite variable  overall trend: fewer aftershocks as time goes by  Seismologists are not able to predict the timing and sizes of individual aftershocks  other great (M > 8) earthquakes have occurred in the region?  M along the subduction zone from southern Sumatra  M  M  M  evidence shows that great earthquakes or earthquake couplets occur about every 230 years 500 yr  Fault slipped ~ 10m  10000mm/20mm/yr =500 yr Same area, only 36 years apart

n Possible tsunami  no reports  No existing system of instruments in the Indian Ocean to know if a tsunami has been generated  Based on historical earthquake-tsunami records  What other significant tsunamis have occurred in the region?  M earthquake (no official records of tsunami)  Krakatau explosion, 36,000 fatalities  M, 1m high tsunami  M earthquake, thousands fatalities  many fatalities  M numerous victims  M, > 300 fatalities  Depth of aftershocks quite variable  important consideration  Many are strike-slip earthquakes (as opposed to thrust)  not likely to generate tsunamis  Only earthquakes with magnitude 7.9 or above: likely to generate destructive tsunamis  CONCLUSION: chance is small, but finite  the great tsunami of 26 December is extremely unlikely to reoccur in the near future

n Economic losses Whole country  relatively marginal economic impact  tourism and fishing - small percentages; % of GDP (directly or indirectly?)  2004 growth: 6.1%  2005 forecast: %  Standard Chartered Bank estimates: decrease less than 1 percent  countries' infrastructures  true cost  Phuket, accounts for about 1.3%  much of the Phuket tourism has been rerouted to other Thai resort towns  using gross domestic product only?  The loss was huge in houses, boats, ports, hotels, clinics, roads and railways, and all will have to be rebuilt. Individuals  Individual lives, livelihoods of millions of families in South Asia  Houses, boats  Lots are not insured  the poor who will suffer, rather than the overall economy  Mostly affected the sea-side fishermen  Main income for hotels, resorts  Psychological impact: psychosocial trauma  Costs that cannot be measured  true cost

Benefits n Investment opportunities  A surge in the construction industry ($2 bn expected to be invested)  Production of raw materials like cement and steel that supply it n Tourism  CNN/TIME survey: tourism not deterred.  France: consideration for taking a holiday in the region rose 2%  Main source of income for those living near the beach or hotel business  Thailand is confident in meeting target of million visitors  arrival figures have picked up  Projected Hotel occupancy: 70-80% for the final three months of 2005  a landmark year for Thai tourism  more than 60 major cultural festivities and sports events to celebrate the Thai king's 60th year on the throne  hopes to reach 20 million foreign visitors annually by 2008

Should this be done? Yes n Hard to weigh benefits and losses n Relatively rare chance for such a large-scale disaster to reoccur in future n Afterall, costs in terms of human lives are immeasurable “The great dilemma of environmental reasoning stems from this conflict between short-term & long-term values… To combine the two visions to create a universal environmental ethic is…very difficult” (E.O.Wilson, 2002)

Recommendations 1. tsunami warning system in the Indian Ocean  Identify and map areas of risk  Tectonic faults  Seafloor topography  Study effects of past tsunamis  Computer models for prediction  Estimated cost: $250-$400 mn 2. Construction:  tsunami walls in front of populated coastal areas  floodgates and channels to redirect the water from incoming tsunamis  natural factors such as tree cover on the shoreline, coconut palms and mangroves  Slow Water: Forests, ditches, slopes, or berms can slow down waves and filter out debris 3. Avoid Inundation Areas  Site Buildings or infrastructure away from hazard area or locate on a high point 4. Better materials concrete, masonry and heavy steel frames tend to withstand a tsunami if it is unaccompanied by an earthquake 5. Better communication channels 6. Education