Malthusian Pessimism In his 1798 theory, English economist and demographer Reverend Thomas Malthus predicted that, because population growth is exponential while agricultural productivity growth follows a linear trend, food demand would inevitably eventually outstrip supply capacity—thereby causing mass starvation and/or the need for population control measures to equilibrate supply and demand. This fatalistic vision of population growth was taken up by Paul Ehrlich in his 1968 The Population Bomb as well as by Lester Brown. The argument was popularised in the 1970s by bestseller Limits to Growth (Meadows et al.)

The Counter-Evidence According to Lomborg, the Malthusian premise regarding the respective patterns of population and productivity growth does not hold. Empirical evidence shows that population growth is rarely exponential while agricultural production rarely grows linearly. According to the UN, food production is 23% greater today than in 1961 (WRI 1996-97).

More Food than Ever In general, Lomborg argues, food per capita is higher than ever despite significant population growth. Calorie intake per person has increased in both the developed and the developing world, and the proportion of world population that is starving has fallen. And despite increasing demand fuelled by population growth, food prices have fallen dramatically. This implies that foodstuffs have become less scarce.

The Green Revolution The unprecedented advances in agricultural productivity are largely due to the advent of a number of new technologies, collectively known as the “Green Revolution.” High yield crop varieties, pioneered by Nobel Peace Prize winner Norman Borlaug, germinate earlier in the year, grow faster, and are more resistant to disease and drought. Irrigation and water control improve soil fertility and hence yields. Increased use of fertilizers and pesticides improves plant growth and prevents losses resulting from disease and insects.

The Green Revolution – consequences ≥30% rise in maximum yields (accounting for 20-50% of productivity growth) Additional income to farmers estimated at $4 billion per annum In 1997, 18% of total agricultural land was irrigated, up from 10.5% in 1961 Since 1950, the use of fertilizer has increased nine-fold.

Regional Distribution Improvements in the supply of food per capita have not been equitably distributed among nations. Sub-Saharan Africa has remained largely stagnant, with the rate of increase of the population outstripping growth between 1980-1995. Lomborg sees this as the result of poor policies. In contrast, the economic reforms instituted in China in the late 1970s have paved the way for increased agricultural production per capita and rapidly growing rural incomes.