Current Surveys of Manufacturing and Services An Overview of the Manufacturing and Services Programs Ron Farrar Service Sector Statistics Division 18 June :00

Overview of Manufacturing and Services Topic Areas  Importance of Manufacturing and Services Estimates  Annual Surveys  Quarterly/Monthly Surveys  Survey Processing  Benchmarking  Data Dissemination  Major Data Users  Story ideas  Wrap Up – strengths and weaknesses 2 1:34

Importance of Manufacturing and Service industry estimates  Provide the most comprehensive and timely data on Manufacturing and Services activity in the US  Significant inputs into estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP)  Estimates influence financial markets and affect business decisions  Provide indications of current economic trends 3 2:08

Finance Numbers Reveal the Recession 4 2:41

“Nearly 50 cents of every dollar spent on health care in this country is spent by federal, state or local government.” Rep. Paul Ryan “The Path to Prosperity” 5 5:06

Demo data 6:20

Annual Survey of Manufactures (ASM)  Annual since 1949 covering manufacturing sector (NAICS 31-33)  Published in years not covered by Economic Census  Sample of 50,000 manufacturing establishments  Supplemented by 200,000 administrative payroll records 7 8:22

Annual Survey of Manufactures (ASM)  Uses  Gross Domestic Product estimates  Index of Industrial Production  Producer Price Index weighting  To benchmark other manufacturing surveys  M3  MECS  Current Industrial Reports (CIRs)  General purpose business indicator 8 9:19

Annual Survey of Manufactures (ASM)  Mandatory survey, establishment based  High response rate  Extensive mail and telephone follow-up  Reviewed by staff of approximately 75 professional statisticians  Publication – Thanksgiving of the following year  i.e ASM published Thanksgiving :08

Annual Survey of Manufactures (ASM)  Data available  Industries at the six-digit NAICS level (1998-present)  Industries at SIC level ( )  Approximately 70 data items covering  Shipments  Costs  Employment  Inventories  Capital Expenditures  Approximately 1500 product classes 10 10:38

Annual Survey of Manufactures (ASM)  Data Available (continued)  State industry data (4-digit NAICS) for major items where significant (> 950) employment exists  Data available on American Fact Finder (AFF); located on under “Annual Economic Surveys” 11 11:26

Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders (M3)  Conducted monthly since 1957  NAICS Sector (Manufacturing)  Based upon data from manufacturing establishments with $500 million or more in annual shipments  Voluntary survey 12 12:08

Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders (M3)  Data Items Collected  Shipments  New Orders (net of cancellations)  Unfilled Orders  End-of-Month Inventories  Materials and Supplies  Work-in-process  Finished Goods Inventories  Advance Report  Highly Sensitive Indicator  Published about 18 working days following the reference month  Full Report  Includes durable and non-durable manufacturing estimates  Published about 23 working days following the reference month 13 12:40

Service Annual Survey (SAS)  NAICS Sectors:  22, Utilities  48/49, Transportation & Warehousing  51, Information  52, Finance & Insurance  53, Real Estate & Rental & Leasing  54, Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services  56, Administrative & Support and Waste Management & Remediation Services  61, Educational Services  62, Health Care and Social Assistance  71, Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation  81, Other Services (except Public Administration) 14 13:47

Service Annual Survey (SAS)  Sample of 70,000 companies  Mandatory survey with high response  Estimates benchmarked to the Economic Census  Data items collected  Revenue  E-commerce Revenue  Expenses  Data typically released in December of the year following the reference period, i.e. December 2010 for 2009 survey data 15 15:15

Quarterly Services Survey (QSS)  Conducted Quarterly since 2004  First new Census Bureau indicator in over 30 years.  NAICS Sectors: Coverage equal to SAS  Sample of 17,000 companies  Sub-sample of SAS  Voluntary Survey 16 16:22

Quarterly Services Survey (QSS)  Data Items Collected  Revenue  Class of Customer (Sectors 51, 54, & 56)  Business  Household  Government  Total discharges and number of in-patient days (hospitals) 17 17:08

Survey Processing  Mailout (includes faxed questionnaires)  Data Collection  Completed questionnaires are mailed or faxed back by respondents.  Internet reporting for M3, QSS, ASM and SAS.  Use of online reporting has grown steadily in recent years.  Fax reminders and telephone follow-up for delinquent respondents and edit failures :37

Survey Processing  Tabulation  Data edits identify cases that are inconsistent with previous reporting or are growing or declining faster than similar cases.  Put all responses on a calendar basis.  Impute for non-response based on response data of similar cases.  same approximate sales size  same kind of business 19 17:44

Benchmarking  Once a year we benchmark the QSS estimates to the SAS estimates and the M3 to the ASM.  The sampling error of the estimates is lower in the annual surveys.  Annual samples are larger than the quarterly samples.  Annual samples are mandatory and have better response.  Every 5 years we benchmark the quarterly and annual estimates to the Economic Census :28

Data Dissemination  Press Release  Manufacturer’s Shipments, Inventories, and Orders (M3)  Quarterly Services Survey  Service Annual Survey  Electronic  American Fact Finder for ASM  Census Bureau website: tables in Excel formatwww.census.gov  White House Briefing Room  CIDR for indicator data releases 21 20:32

Data demo 22 22:06

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Major Data Users  Leading Economic Indicators – used by policy makers, investors, large companies, consultants, etc.  Users  Federal Reserve Board – economic trends  Bureau of Economic Analysis- GDP  Council of Economic Advisors – economic analysis  Large service Firms – economic conditions and market analysis  Financial Markets – Wall Street and other markets  Consultants  Market Research Firms  Academia 26 26:56

Story Ideas – Manufacturing & Services  Example Headlines  Newspaper Publishers down 26.4% since 2005  Motion Picture Industry down 11.1% in first quarter 2011  Largest single quarter drop since 2006  The 11.1% trend reflects seasonal adjustment  Dentists up 9.1% in first quarter 2011  This follows roughly two years of declines  Total number of production workers in manufacturing down 4.5% since 1997  Aircraft industry runs opposite to this trend; up 13.3%  Kilowatt hours per employee in manufacturing up 36.8% since :03

Story Ideas – Manufacturing & Services  Example Headlines  Photofinishing down 48.7% since 2001  Decline decelerated to just ( -2.7% ) between 2008 and 2009  Revenue for Casinos up 47% since 2001,  declined slightly ( -2.7% ) between 2008 and 2009  Grew 9.1% in first quarter 2011  Architectural services rebounds from lagging 2009 and early 2010 with 12.5% year to year increase for 2010/11  One of the last service industries to rebound from the recession  The value of manufacturers new orders decreased 1.2% between March & April 2011, having increased 3.8% from February to March 28 30:04

Wrap-up and Overview 29 Quarterly/Monthly Estimates  Estimates at a higher level and include core data items  Estimates available shortly after reference period  Voluntary response  Small sample size  Less reliable Annual Estimates  Detailed estimates that include additional data items beyond core items  Estimates not as timely  Mandatory response  Larger sample size  More reliable 33:04

Thank You! Website address: Contact Information U.S. Census Bureau :38