Technological Life Cycle The S-curved miracle. The S-curved technological progress time Technological performance index Natural bottleneck Emerging stage.

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Technological Life Cycle The S-curved miracle

The S-curved technological progress time Technological performance index Natural bottleneck Emerging stage — new invention Technological Progress stage — application innovation Mature stage — market penetration Decline stage

Technological market value Market value Technological development Application growth Emerging Application Technological maturity Technological substitution Technological succession time Critical stage Up to the technological limit

Multiple-generation technologies time Technological performance index Generation I Generation II Generation III Envelope route of TLC

Interaction between Technology and Market Science-technology push Driven by scientific discovery and inventions New market definition and new industry creation Market pull Driven by the transformation of demographics User-involved innovation

Market value of Product life cycle Market value Prototyping stage Growing stage Launching stage Substitution stage Decline stage time Time lag relative to technological innovation Mature stage

Product/process innovation Innovation rate TimeChaotic stageDominate design stage Product innovation Process innovation New wave innovation

Diffusion of innovation Comparative advantage Compatible with existed behavior/value Relative complexity Testability for adoption Visibility of performance

Competition of diffusion time Cumulative Adoption rate 100% Quick diffusion and dominate the market Delaying diffusion and diminish the competitiveness

Bandwagon effect for quick diffusion time Adoption rate Quick diffusion by mass communication Delaying diffusion by means of word-of-mouth promotion

Reference Rogers, Evertt M. (1995), Diffusion of Innovation, Fourth edition, Free Press, New York. Utterback, James M. (1994), Mastering the Dynamics of Innovation, Harvard Business School Press, Boston, MA.