1 Introduction to Complex Systems: How to think like nature Russ Abbott Sr. Engr. Spec. Rotn to CCAE  The Aerospace Corporation. All Rights Reserved. Innovation: evolution generalized

2 Innovative environments The Internet The inspiration for net-centricity and the GIG Goal: to bring the creativity of the internet to the DoD What do innovative environments have in common? What do innovative environments have in common? Other innovative environments The scientific and technological research process The market economy Biological evolution

3 Innovative environments Innovation is always the result of an evolutionary process. Randomly generate new variants—by combining and modifying existing ones. Select the good ones. (Daniel Dennett, Darwin's Dangerous Idea) Requires mechanisms: For creating stable and persistent design instances so that they can serve as the basis for new possibilities. For combining and modifying designs. For selecting and establishing the better ones.

4 Designs in various environments Recorded asCreated by How instantiated Established InternetSoftware Programmers who know the techniques Self-instantiatingBy users Scientific knowledge A publication Scientists who know the literature The publication is the instantiation By peer review Market economy Trade secrets Product developers who know the tricks Entrepreneurial manufacturing Consumers Biological evolution DNA Combination and mutation Reproduction Whether it finds a niche Entities: nature’s memes An implicit design Construction, combination and mutation Implementation of a level of abstraction Whether it finds a niche All bottom-up

5 How does this apply to organizations? To ensure innovation: Sounds simple doesn’t it? Creation and trial Encourage the prolific generation and trial of new ideas. Establishing successful variants Allow new ideas to flourish or wither based on how well they do.

6 Initial funding Prospect of failure ApprovalsEstablishment Biological evolution Capitalism in the small. Nature always experiments. Most are failures, which means death. (But no choice given.) None. Bottom-up resource allocation defines success. Entrepreneur Little needed for an Internet experiment. Perhaps some embarrassment, time, money; not much more. Few. Entrepreneur wants rewards. Bottom-up resource allocation. Bureaucracy Proposals, competition, forms, etc. Who wants a failure in his/her personnel file— when “mission success” is the corporate motto? Far too many. Managers have other priorities. Top-down resource allocation. New ideas aren’t the problem. Trying them out Innovation in various environments Getting good ideas established

7 Exploratory behavior How can the human genome, with fewer than 25,000 genes produce –A brain with trillions of cells and synaptic connections? –The filling out of the circulatory and nervous systems? Cell growth followed by die-off produce webbing in duck feet and bat wings but not in human fingers. Military strategy of “probing for weakness.” Ant foraging. Corporate strategy of seeking (or creating) marketing niches. The general mechanism is: Prolifically generate a wide range of possibilities Establish connections to new sources of value in the environment. The general mechanism is: Prolifically generate a wide range of possibilities Establish connections to new sources of value in the environment. Mechanism generation Function explore Purpose use result Bottom up

8 Like water finding a way down hill Microbes attempting to get into your body must first get past your skin and mucous membranes, which not only pose a physical barrier but are rich in scavenger cells and IgA antibodies. Next, they must elude a series of nonspecific defenses—and substances that attack all invaders regardless of the epitopes they carry. These include patrolling phagocytes, granulocytes, NK cells, and complement. Infectious agents that get past these nonspecific barriers must finally confront specific weapons tailored just for them. These include both antibodies and cytotoxic T cells. From a tutorial on the immune system from the National Cancer Institute: How do they find the open pathways? It’s not “invaders” vs. “defenders.” Through evolutionary exploratory behavior, some will inevitably find a way. How do they find the open pathways? It’s not “invaders” vs. “defenders.” Through evolutionary exploratory behavior, some will inevitably find a way. Quite a challenge! We are very well defended! But we still get sick! Some “invaders” will make it past these defenses. The problem is not even that some get through, it’s that they exploit their success. Innovative organizations make that inevitability work in their favor. Innovation is the (disruptive) invader not the defender.