1 GFNORTE: 4Q07 Results February, 2008. 2 1.4Q07 Overview. 2.Asset Quality. 3.Stock Metrics. 4.Final Considerations. Contents.

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Presentation transcript:

1 GFNORTE: 4Q07 Results February, 2008

2 1.4Q07 Overview. 2.Asset Quality. 3.Stock Metrics. 4.Final Considerations. Contents

3 Yearly Recap Performing Loan Growth19%32% 2007 Net Income Stock Price P/BV ,185 Net Interest Margin 11% % 7% % 6, ROA2.8%2.6% ROE24.9%22.6% Book Value Past Due Loan Ratio1.4%1.5% 22%10% CONSTANT MILLION PESOS

4 Quarterly Net Income CONSTANT MILLION PESOS 1,685 1,018 4Q044Q05 1,560 4Q06 1,263 4Q07

% 12% (36%) (28%) (2%) 9%9% 12% 6%6% 798% 1%1% 10% 67% (95%) ,384 6, ,292 7,899 25,283 14,432 10,851 1,867 (3,293) 6,810 (2,645) 31 Change 15,069 5, ,782 8,072 23,141 12,931 10, (3,255) 6,185 (1,588) 610 QoQ YoY 24% 17% 21% (82%) (5%) 14% 13% 16% 3,283% (8%) 8%8% 170% (130%) 4Q064Q07 4,881 1, ,914 6,795 3,841 2, (694) 1,685 (921) (36) 3,931 1, ,010 5,941 3,395 2,546 (12) (756) 1,560 (341) 122 Income Statement CONSTANT MILLION PESOS Net Interest Income Service Fees Recovery FX and Trading Non Interest Income Total Income Non Interest Expense Net Operating Income Non Operating Income, Net Income Tax Net Income Provisions Subs & Minority Interest

6 Comparable Results Net Interest Income14, ,384 20% MILLION PESOS Non Interest Income7,1857,899 10% Total Income21,70025,283 17% Non Interest Expense13,15714,432 10% 2006 Accounting Standards ‘07 Operating Profit8,53410,851 27%

7 Non Interest Expense CONSTANT BILLION PESOS EFFICIENCY RATIO Non Interest Expense % 56.8% % % 2007 Accounting Changes 52.9% 3.4 pp

8 Net Interest Margin vs CETES PERCENTAGE CETES NIM 4Q051Q062Q063Q064Q061Q072Q073Q07 99% 111% 4Q

9 Core Deposits CONSTANT BILLION PESOS Mix Demand Time Demand Time Total Deposits4Q054Q074Q %23% 13% 14% 21% 30% 63% 37% 100% 64% 36% 100% 66% 34% 100%

10 CONSTANT BILLION PESOS Performing Loan Portfolio 4Q063Q074Q07 QoQ Change YoY Commercial Corporate Government Total Consumer 23%10% 47%19% 60%0%0% 32%10% 29%7%7% Q063Q074Q

11 Performing Consumer Loan Portfolio CONSTANT BILLION PESOS 4Q053Q074Q Q063Q074Q07 QoQ Change YoY Car Loans Credit Card Loans Payroll Loans Consumer 10%3% 41%9% 20%1%1% 29%7%7% Mortgage Loans 31%9%363328

12 AUTO MORTGAGE PAYROLL & PERSONAL Consumer Loans ORIGINATION IN CONSTANT BILLION PESOS

13 Credit Cards THOUSANDS OF NEW CARDS

14 Increase in risk adjusted profitability. New products: Mujer Banorte / Inmediata / Platinum / Empuje Negocios. Ya Bájale: record level of balances transferred. Ps $3.0 billion pesos (+47% YoY). Diversification of distribution channels. Development of existing portfolio. Campaigns to promote usage and commercial alliances. Credit Card: 2007 Achievements

15 Capitalization Ratio Tier 1 Tier 2 TOTAL Percentage Tier 1 PERCENTAGE 10.2% 3.6% 13.8% % 13.3%12.2% 2.8%5.1% 16.1%17.4% 83%70%

16 Credit Ratings = Notches Over Investment Grade Baa1 BBB BBB- International Rating Fitch Moody’s Standard & Poor’s Agency Positive Stable Outlook Date Sep-07 Dec-07

17 Subsidiaries

18 Recovery Banking NET INCOME IN MILLION PESOS Total AUM IN BILLION PESOS Loan Book Assets % 29% (5%) Projects 85%

19 Long Term Savings AFORE INSURANCE ANNUITIES Total ROE: 16% ROE: 24% ROE: 20% NET INCOME IN MILLION PESOS

20 Other Finance Companies FACTORING WHAREHOUSING 1511 LEASING Total ROE: 23% ROE: 30% ROE: 13% NET INCOME IN MILLION PESOS

21 Other Subsidiaries BROKERAGEMICROLENDING (20) (30) 2007 ROE: 33% NET INCOME IN MILLION PESOS

22 Banorte USA MILLION DOLLARS INB Performing Loans Efficiency ROE Net Income (70%) Net Interest Margin % % 21.5% % 46.4% 4.6% 11% 25% 11% 26%

23 Business Indicators Customers AUM Infrastructure

24 Customers Bank Afore Insurance MILLIONS

25 BILLION PESOS Assets Under Management Bank Brokerage House Long Term Savings

26 Infrastructure Distribution Channel 2007 Branches ATM´s POS 1,051 3,674 27,857 Employees17, ,140 21,453 15, % 17% 30% 9%

27 2. Asset Quality

28 Asset Quality Past Due Loans Loan Loss Reserves RESERVE COVERAGE PAST DUE LOAN RATIO Total Loan Portfolio CONSTANT BILLION PESOS 4Q063Q074Q % 172% 132% 4Q063Q074Q07 1.5% 1.4% 4Q063Q074Q07 1.5%

29 Reserve Creation from Loan Book Mortgage Corporate / Commercial Government Credit Card , Other Consumer Total2,818 % of Total % of total CONSTANT MILLION PESOS

30 Loan Book Performance Mortgage Corporate / Commercial Government Credit Card 14% 60% 41% 31% Other Consumer 30% Total32% ROE 38% 19% 31% 16% 21% 3.6% 0% 6.5% 0.8% (0.2%) Loan Growth Net Credit Losses 23%0.9% 2007

31 3. Stock Metrics

32 Stock Performance IPC: 341 Banorte: Inbursa: 244

33 Stock Turnover: Daily Volume MILLION DOLLARS CAGR = 72%

34 Market Capitalization 7, ,174 1, , , CAGR = 48% MILLION DOLLARS

35 LatAm Bank’s Performance Bradesco (23%) Banco de Chile 46% Unibanco 55% (4%) Banco Macro Bancolombia 11% ItaúBanorte 7% 44% Inbursa 2007 RETURNS IN DOLLARS 34%

36 LatAm Valuations P/BV P/E Bradesco 54.6 Santander - Chile 8.7 Bancolombia 6.2 Unibanco 18.3 Banco do Brasil 41.7 GFNorte 7.9 Itaú 55.1 BILLION DOLLARS

37 4. Final Considerations

38 Financial Penetration 7% 6% 14% 38% BANK CREDIT TO PRIVATE SECTOR AS % OF GDP 8% 10% 12% 26% 10% 8% 7% 15% +23 pp

39 LatAm Comparison 34% 33% 13% 24% 72% ChileColombiaAverageArgentinaMexico Bank Other 15% 9% 33% Brazil 22% Peru CREDIT TO PRIVATE SECTOR AS % OF GDP

40 Challenges 2008 Infrastructure 80 new branches + 20 refurbishments. 600 new ATM’s substitutions. 12,000 POS’s. SME’s Low bancarization levels. New secular growth story. Specialized products & sales force. Asset Quality Improve origination & follow up process. Efforts to reduce reserve requirements.

41 Challenges 2008 Banorte USA Microlending Alternate channels Greater revenue synergies. New products. Calibration of business model. Emphasis on profitability & asset quality. Seek new alliances. Middle & lower income segments. Government banking Increased loan demand. Emphasis on payrolls.

42 Medium Term Challenges Adequate reading of uncertain environment. Asset quality & profitability. Investment: Competitive infrastructure. Cost containment. Alternate distribution channels. Funding costs and capitalization.

43