Modeling Developing Country Emissions Geoffrey J. Blanford, EPRI Global Climate Change Seminar May 21, 2008 Washington, DC.

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Presentation transcript:

Modeling Developing Country Emissions Geoffrey J. Blanford, EPRI Global Climate Change Seminar May 21, 2008 Washington, DC

2 © 2008 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Global CO 2 Emissions: Changing of the Guard 2010 Projection

3 © 2008 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Non-Annex B Emissions will surpass Annex B before 2010

4 © 2008 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Reading the Data on Developing Countries Rapid growth in energy use and emissions China is the major player, both in rate and scale: –618 GW installed capacity in 2006 –106 GW newly installed source: J. Kejun (2007) Have modeling scenarios caught up? What are the implications for global stabilization goals?

5 © 2008 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Energy-related CO 2 emissions in China

6 © 2008 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Energy-related CO 2 emissions in China

7 © 2008 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Energy-related CO 2 emissions in China

8 © 2008 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Energy-related CO 2 emissions in China

9 © 2008 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Energy-related CO 2 emissions in China

10 © 2008 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Modeling the Kaya Identity Population × per capita income = GDP × energy intensity = Primary Energy × carbon intensity = Emissions Energy use per capita

11 © 2008 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. The Kaya Identity in China Carbon Intensity of Energy Population Emissions Per Capita Income Energy Intensity of GDP source: G. Marland (2008) Carbon Intensity of GDP

12 © 2008 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in China 2000 – 2010: 9.6% 2010– 2030: 7.5%

13 © 2008 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Total Primary Energy in China

14 © 2008 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Comparison to Asian Experience China’s per capita income in 2003: $5,000 (year 2000 $US PPP) 7 Asian countries are wealthier than China: Year of $5,000 income level 2003 Income Hong Kong1978$29,600 Singapore1967$27,000 Japan1961$24,000 Taiwan1977$19,900 Korea1982$17,600 Malaysia1980$12,100 Thailand1992$7,700

15 © 2008 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Per Capita Income Projection for China

16 © 2008 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Energy Intensity Projections for China

17 © 2008 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Per Capita Energy Use Projections for China

18 © 2008 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Per Capita Energy Use Projections for China

19 © 2008 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Global CO 2 Emissions

20 © 2008 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Global CO 2 Emissions

21 © 2008 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Is 450 (CO 2 only) Feasible?

22 © 2008 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Is 450 (CO 2 only) Feasible? HistoryNew MERGE Baseline

23 © 2008 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Is 550 (CO 2 only) Feasible? HistoryNew MERGE Baseline

24 © 2008 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Conclusions There is considerable uncertainty about future growth… … but, the scenario shown here is plausible, consistent with current observations and historical experience If developing countries continue to grow along this baseline path, aggressive stabilization targets quickly become impossible to meet (without overshoot) Annex B countries must find a way to engage China

25 © 2008 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Back-up slides

26 © 2008 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Observed Data using PPP: *Russian data

27 © 2008 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Observed Data Using MER:

28 © 2008 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Historical Per Capita Energy Use