Declines in mountain snowpack Philip Mote, Alan Hamlet, Dennis Lettenmaier University of Washington With thanks to NRCS and Iris Stewart ftp://ftp.atmos.washington.edu/philip/SNOWPAPER/

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

1 Climate change and the cryosphere. 2 Outline Background, climatology & variability Role of snow in the global climate system Contemporary observations.

Advertisements

© Hawkins. PROJECTED TEMPERATURE CHANGES Virtually all climate simulations project warming, but with a wide envelope of temperature change Virtually all.

Long-term trends in snowpack in the Pacific Northwest Philip Mote, Alan Hamlet, and Dennis Lettenmaier.

Hydrologic Outlook for the Pacific Northwest Andy Wood and Dennis P. Lettenmaier Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering for Washington Water.

Alan F. Hamlet Anthony L. Westerling Tim P. Barnett Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering.

What we know about global climate change Philip Mote (206) University of Washington.

The West’s declining snowpack: is global warming to blame? Philip Mote Climate Impacts Group University of Washington.

Alan F. Hamlet, Phil Mote, Martyn Clark, Dennis P. Lettenmaier Center for Science in the Earth System Climate Impacts Group and Department of Civil and.

Alan F. Hamlet JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Washington Hydrologic Implications of Climate.

Optimized Flood Control in the Columbia River Basin for a Global Warming Scenario 1Dept. of Civil and Env. Engineering, UW 2CSES Climate Impacts Group,

Alan F. Hamlet Philip W. Mote Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO Center for Science in the Earth System Climate Impacts Group and Department of Civil and Environmental.

Dennis P. Lettenmaier Alan F. Hamlet JISAO Climate Impacts Group and the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Washington July,

Alan F. Hamlet Anthony L. Westerling Tim P. Barnett Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering.

Alan F. Hamlet Dennis P. Lettenmaier Center for Science in the Earth System Climate Impacts Group and Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering.

What we know about global climate change Philip Mote (206) University of Washington.

Implications of 21st century climate change for the hydrology of Washington October 6, 2009 CIG Fall Forecast Meeting Climate science in the public interest.

Alan F. Hamlet Marketa McGuire Elsner Ingrid Tohver Kristian Mickelson JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering University.

Alan F. Hamlet Philip W. Mote Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO Center for Science in the Earth System Climate Impacts Group and Department of Civil and Environmental.

Alan F. Hamlet Andy Wood Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO Climate Impacts Group and the Department of Civil Engineering University of Washington September,

Alan F. Hamlet Anthony L. Westerling Tim P. Barnett Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering.

Hydrologic trends in the West Philip Mote Climate Impacts Group University of Washington Alan Hamlet, Martyn Clark, Dennis Lettenmaier With thanks to Dave.

Optimized Flood Control in the Columbia River Basin for a Global Warming Scenario 1Dept. of Civil and Env. Engineering, UW 2CSES Climate Impacts Group,

Washington State Climate Change Impacts Assessment: Implications of 21 st century climate change for the hydrology of Washington Marketa M Elsner 1 with.

Alan F. Hamlet Philip W. Mote Martyn Clark Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO/SMA Climate Impacts Group and Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering.

Exploring the Roles of Climate and Land Surface Changes on the Variability of Pan-Arctic River Discharge Jennifer C. Adam 1, Fengge Su 1, Laura C. Bowling.

1. Introduction 3. Global-Scale Results 2. Methods and Data Early spring SWE for historic ( ) and future ( ) periods were simulated. Early.

Michael Dettinger US Geological Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA Dan Cayan, USGS/SIO Iris Stewart, SIO Noah Knowles, USGS Recent.

Alan F. Hamlet, Philip W. Mote, Nate Mantua, Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering University.

Global climate change and Oregon’s water resources Philip Mote Climate Impacts Group University of Washington Alan Hamlet (UW), Iris Stewart (UCSD) With.

Land Cover Change and Climate Change Effects on Streamflow in Puget Sound Basin, Washington Lan Cuo 1, Dennis Lettenmaier 1, Marina Alberti 2, Jeffrey.

Climate Change in the Pacific Northwest: Impacts and Planning Philip Mote UW Climate Impacts Group University of Washington Climate Science in the Public.

Alan F. Hamlet Philip W. Mote Martyn Clark Dennis P. Lettenmaier Center for Science in the Earth System Climate Impacts Group and Department of Civil and.

The Role of Antecedent Soil Moisture on Variability of the North American Monsoon System Chunmei Zhu a, Yun Qian b, Ruby Leung b, David Gochis c, Tereza.

Alan F. Hamlet, Philip W. Mote, Nate Mantua, Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering University.

Alan F. Hamlet, Nathalie Voisin, Dennis P. Lettenmaier, David W. Pierce Center for Science in the Earth System Climate Impacts Group and Department of.

Introduction 1. Climate – Variations in temperature and precipitation are now predictable with a reasonable accuracy with lead times of up to a year (

Alan F. Hamlet, Philip W. Mote, Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Washington.

Alan F. Hamlet, Philip W. Mote, Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Washington.

Long-term climate and water cycle variability and change Dennis P. Lettenmaier Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Washington.

Opportunities for UCLA/JPL water-related collaborations: Western U.S. focus Dennis P. Lettenmaier Department of Geography University of California, Los.

Global Warming and Its impacts on the Pacific Northwest Dr. Nathan Mantua University of Washington Climate Impacts Group Dr. Nathan Mantua University.

Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources in Idaho Prepared by Zion Klos PhD Student, College of Natural Resources …feel.

Assessing the Influence of Decadal Climate Variability and Climate Change on Snowpacks in the Pacific Northwest JISAO/SMA Climate Impacts Group and the.

SNOW SEASON FRACTIONAL FLOW 4 Trends in Eurasian Arctic runoff timing and their relationship to snow cover changes Amanda Tan 1, Jennifer C. Adam 2, Dennis.

Hydrologic Forecasting Alan F. Hamlet Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of.

Alan F. Hamlet, Philip W. Mote, Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Washington.

Alan F. Hamlet, Philip W. Mote, Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Washington.

UBC/UW 2011 Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium Friday, September 30, 2011 DIAGNOSIS OF CHANGING COOL SEASON PRECIPITATION STATISTICS IN THE WESTERN.

Alan F. Hamlet, Philip W. Mote, Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Washington.

Use of Climate Forecasts in Hydrologic Prediction Applications Alan F. Hamlet Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group Dept. of Civil and.

Alan F. Hamlet, Philip W. Mote, Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Washington.

California’s climate. Sierra Nevada snow depth, April 13, 2005 April 1 snowpack was 3 rd largest in last 10 years cm snow Source:

Alan F. Hamlet, Philip W. Mote, Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Washington.

Estimating Changes in Flood Risk due to 20th Century Warming and Climate Variability in the Western U.S. Alan F. Hamlet Dennis P. Lettenmaier.

JISAO Center for Science in the Earth System Climate Impacts Group

Hydrologic Implications of 20th Century Climate Variability and Global Climate Change in the Western U.S. Alan F. Hamlet, Philip W. Mote, Dennis P. Lettenmaier.

Challenges in western water management: What can science offer?

Effects of Climate Variability and Change on the Columbia River Basin

Hydrologic implications of 20th century warming in the western U.S.

Hydrologic Implications of 20th Century Warming in the Western U.S.

Alan F. Hamlet Prof. Dennis P. Lettenmaier (Chair) Phd Final Exam

Hydrologic Implications of 20th Century Warming in the Western U.S.

Climate impacts on the Pacific Northwest environment: Hydrology and water resources Dennis P. Lettenmaier Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering.

Trends in Runoff and Soil Moisture in the Western U.S

Hydrologic Forecasting

Hydrologic response of Pacific Northwest Rivers to climate change

Effects of Temperature and Precipitation Variability on Snowpack Trends in the Western U.S. JISAO/SMA Climate Impacts Group and the Department of Civil.

Changing Precipitation Statistics in the West, and Evidence of Frequency of Recurrence from Paleoclimatic Streamflow Reconstructions Alan F. Hamlet Anthony.

Hydrologic Changes in the Western U.S. from

Evaluating Recent 20th Century Changes in Cool Season Precipitation and Hydropower Variability in the Western U.S. in the Context of Paleoclimatic Reconstructions.

Presentation transcript:

Declines in mountain snowpack Philip Mote, Alan Hamlet, Dennis Lettenmaier University of Washington With thanks to NRCS and Iris Stewart ftp://ftp.atmos.washington.edu/philip/SNOWPAPER/

Trends , relative to 1950 value Data from NRCS, CA DWR, BC SRM 824 snow courses/SNOTEL Relative to 1950 value VIC simulation 1/8° long x 1/8° lat, west of Continental Divide Daily weather data, 1/1/ /30/97 interpolated to VIC grid points from Coop stations Long-term trends interpolated from USHCN stations

Trends , relative to 1950 value

relative trends vs DJF temperature Obs VIC

Correlations between Nov-Mar climate and Apr 1 SWE X-direction: precip Y-direction: temp Coldest locations insensitive to temperature Cascades very sensitive

At almost every USHCN station, winters warmed + signs: warming but not statistically significant

Winters wetter in much of the West Drier in some of Northwest (PDO)

April 1 SWE trends, a P a T

Regional average April 1 SWE Obs o VIC x

Changes in SWE vs changes in precip 1930s to 1990s to 1990s Obs SWEVIC SWEPrecipObs SWEVIC SWEPrecip Cascades-14%+1%+4%-29%-16%-5% Rockies+11%+2%+9%-16%-9%+1% California+3%-14%+10%-2%-25%-1% Interior+9%-6%+10%-22%-18%+2%

Trends in Simulated Average APR 1 SWE for the Cascades in WA and OR ( ) Effects of TMP and PCP -54% Effects of TMP -26%Effects of PCP -28% SWE (mm)

Stewart et al., 2004; Stewart et al., in press, J. Clim. Spring-pulse dates Centers of Mass By several measures, Western snowfed streamflow has been arriving earlier in the year in recent decades Spring pulse Center time

Trends in timing of peak snowpack Change in Date

As the West warms, winter flows rise and summer flows drop Figure by Iris Stewart, Scripps Inst. of Oceanog. (UC San Diego)

March June Relative Trend (% per year) Trends in fraction of annual runoff for cells with more than 50 mm of SWE on April 1

Trends/15yr in snow days in Switzerland From Scherrer et al., GRL 2004

Northern Hemisphere spring snow extent Courtesy Ross Brown

Conclusions Observations show substantial declines in western snowpack Changes in timing of melt, peak snowpack, and seasonality of flow Dependence on elevation shows temperature playing a dominant role ftp://ftp.atmos.washington.edu/philip/SNOWPAPER/