The Clean Air For Europe (CAFE) program: Scientific and economic assessment Markus Amann International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

The CAFE approach Based on peer-reviewed scientific knowledge Using best available, quality-controlled real-world data With close involvement of stakeholders: Integrated assessment of cost-effective policy measures with the IIASA RAINS model: 1.Project future emissions and air quality resulting from full implementation of current EU legislation 2.Explore scope and costs for further measures 3.Analyze cost-effective policy scenarios

Economic drivers assumed for the CAFE baseline scenario, EU-25

Land-based emissions CAFE baseline “with climate measures”, EU-25

Scope for further technical emission reductions CAFE baseline “with climate measures”, EU-25

Loss in life expectancy attributable to fine particles [months] Loss in average statistical life expectancy due to identified anthropogenic PM2.5 Calculations for 1997 meteorology CAFE baseline Maximum technical Current legislation emission reductions

Vegetation-damaging ozone concentrations AOT40 [ppm.hours]. Critical level for forests = 5 ppm.hours Calculations for 1997 meteorology CAFE baseline Maximum technical Current legislation emission reductions

Excess acid deposition to forests Percentage of forest area with acid deposition above critical loads, Calculation for 1997 meteorology CAFE baseline Maximum technical Current legislation emission reductions

Excess nitrogen deposition threatening biodiversity Percentage of ecosystems area with nitrogen deposition above critical loads Calculation for 1997 meteorology CAFE baseline Maximum technical Current legislation emission reductions

Multi-pollutant/multi-effect analysis for identifying cost-effective policy scenarios SO 2 NO x VOCNH 3 PM HealthAcidificationEutrophication Ozone RAINS computer model CAFE policy targets for 2020

Optimized emission reductions for EU-25 of the CAFE policy scenarios [2000=100%]

Emission control costs of the CAFE policy scenarios

Distribution of costs [€/person/year] *) excluding costs for road sources

EU-wide instruments and measures considered by the Commission National emission ceilings –for PM2.5, SO 2, NO x, NH 3, VOC Air quality limit values for PM2.5 –Focus on population-weighted urban background concentrations Further strengthening of emission limit values for vehicles (Euro-5, Euro-6) Product standards for small combustion sources Structural funds for substitution of coal combustion in households in accession countries Etc. Additional local measures subject to subsidiarity principle

Conclusions Emissions in the EU-25 will continue to decline in the future with progressing implementation of current legislation (except ammonia) However, air quality problems will remain. Different problems will persist in different regions of Europe There is scope for further emission reductions The Commission will propose cost-effective steps for further air quality improvement in Europe. Member States need to accept their shares in cooperative solutions.