Cumulative emissions scenarios IPCC Mitigation TS2001.

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Presentation transcript:

Cumulative emissions scenarios IPCC Mitigation TS2001

Emissions 2004

Energy share by economic region

Growth by region

Emissions growth by cause IPCC 2007 Mitigation TS

Total fuel mix to 2005

Electricity production G8 Renewable Energy Taskforce 2001 report “business as usual” “diversify + renewables scenario” ~ B

“Diversible Renewables”- breakdown G8 Renewable Energy Taskforce 2001 report

Total system cost/year G8 Renewable Energy Taskforce 2001 report

Making up ones mind …. IPCC Mitigation TS2001

Stabilisation costs “Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change” CUP 2006

CO2 prices “Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change” CUP 2006 Longer term with trading

Induced Technology Change effect “Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change” CUP 2006

Mitigation “Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change” CUP 2006

11 Wedges …. “Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change” CUP 2006

Wedges 1 Potential wedges: Strategies available to: reduce the carbon emission rate in 2055 by 1 GtC/year, or to reduce carbon emissions from 2005 to 2055 by 25 GtC. “Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change” CUP All these happening?

6-10 Current or nearly current engineering ? “Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change” CUP 2006

11-15 Societally harder ? “Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change” CUP 2006

IPCC 2007 Mitigation, TS. Biofuels

Evolving costs for alternatives (data of 2001) G8 Renewable Energy Taskforce 2001 report

External costs G8 Renewable Energy Taskforce 2001 report

Stabilisation scenarios “Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change” CUP 2006

IPCC 2007 Mitigation, TS.

Forest management IPCC Mitigation TS2001

When to act … “Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change” CUP 2006

11 Wedges …. “Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change” CUP 2006

Carbon capture and storage

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