U.S. Withdrawal from Vietnam in 1961 D. Sean Baer Caroline Efrati

The Background Cold War context (Korean Conflict). Laos Indo-China/French Conflict Geneva Conference Agreements with Diem Newly elected U.S. President

U.S. Interests Stopping the spread of Communism Democracy building in Southeast Asia Supporting European allies Supporting South Asian allies Maintaining a strong image internationally Support from U.S. citizens Human costs Financial costs

Other Players’ Interests Diem North Vietnamese/Ho Chi Minh China Soviet Union French Other Allies

U.S.’s Ultimate Objectives Stop the spread of Communism in SE Asia Stop Communist insurgency in Vietnam Maintain democracy and market economy in South Vietnam

Our Options Withdrawal Conventional Warfare Counterinsurgency –COIN 1 –COIN 2

The Argument for Withdrawal Negotiate now while we have influence No other major European ally willing to significantly participate Do not want to be seen as aggressor Save Americans’ lives Negotiations worked in Laos Save face in the long-run

Problems with Withdrawal Could be seen as a sign of weakness against Communism in the short-run Some Communist influence in South No guarantee that North Vietnamese would keep their word for negotiations

Problems with Other Options Conventional warfare: –Does not deal with political issues of the insurgency –Possibility of failure (French) –Costs too great: American lives and financial costs Counterinsurgency: –COIN 1: Can’t trust Diem to carry out reforms –COIN 2: Gov’t reforms during war = weak gov’t, open to coup or military failures –Middle ground

Summary Withdrawal presents the best option to maintain our long- term influence in Southeast Asia without being seen as the aggressor