How to win a Presidential Election

The rules of the game Electoral College

Electoral College Vote Distribution, largest to smallest, 2004 and 2008 California 55Mass. 12South Carolina 8Hawaii 4 Texas 34Indiana 11Connecticut 7Idaho 4 New York 31Missouri 11Iowa 7Maine 4 Florida 27Tennessee 11Oklahoma 7New Hampshire 4 Illinois 21Washington 11Oregon 7Rhode Island 4 Pennsylvania 21Arizona 10Arkansas 6Alaska 3 Ohio 20Maryland 10Kansas 6Delaware 3 Michigan 17Minnesota 10Mississippi 6D.C. 3 Georgia 15Wisconsin 10Nebraska 5Montana 3 New Jersey 15Alabama 9Nevada 5North Dakota 3 North Carolina 15Colorado 9New Mexico 5South Dakota 3 Virginia 13Louisiana 9Utah 5Vermont 3 Kentucky 8West Virginia 5Wyoming 3

Sure things REPUBLICAN STATES: –AL: 9, AR: 3, AK: 6, GA: 15, ID: 4, IN: 11, KS: 6, KY: 8, LA: 9, MS: 6, MT: 3, NE: 5, NC: 15, ND: 3, OK: 7, SC: 8, SD: 3, TX: 34, UT: 5, VA: 13, WY: 3. –Total: 176 DEMOCRATIC STATES –CA: 55, CT: 7, DE: 3, DC: 3, HI: 4, IL: 21, ME: 4, MD: 10, MA: 12, NJ: 15, NY: 31, RI: 4, VT: 3 –Total: 169

The purple states The West: –Arizona: 10 EV, Colorado: 9 EV, Nevada: 5 EV, –New Mexico: 5 EV, Oregon: 7 EV, Washington: 11 EV The Midwest: –Minnesota: 10 EV, Iowa: 7 EV, Missouri: 11 EV, Ohio: 20 EV, Pennsylvania: 21 EV, Michigan 17 EV, Wisconsin: 10 EV Border states: –Tennessee: 11 EV, West Virginia: 5 EV The South: Florida: 27 EV The North: New Hampshire: 4 EV

Number of visits as of 6/24/04 Bush: PA: 29 FL: 20 MO: 17 OH: 14 - GA: 13 -CA: 13 -TX: 13 IA: 11 Kerry: IA: 71 NH: 68 - CA: 29 - NY: 27 FL: 23 PA: 19 IL: 14 OH: 12 Check mark indicates a purple state. Why visit the others?

The rules of the game Electoral College Problems with the Electoral College? What if we used a straight popular vote?

The rules of the game Electoral College Campaign finance Swing voters vs. base voters

The Campaign Hire a good campaign team: Partisan Professional Specialized

The Campaign Organization Campaign Chairman Campaign Manager Fundraising Director Finance Chairman Communications Director Press Secretary Policy Director(s) Political director Issues director(s) Field director Opposition research director Pollster Advertising consultant Media consultant State campaign chairs State field directors

The Campaign Hire a good campaign team Choose where to campaign Choose which voters to target Choose which issues to emphasize Choose an advertising strategy: –Positive, substantive, attack, and contrast –examplesexamples

The Campaign Hire a good campaign team Choose where to campaign Choose which voters to target Choose which issues to emphasize Choose an advertising strategy Debate (and spin it afterwards) Turn out voters

The Electoral Calendar First Monday following First Wednesday in December: Electors meet in their state capitols and cast their formal votes for president January 6, 2009: The President of the Senate opens and counts the votes January 20, 2009: The newly elected (or re-elected) president is inaugurated