Structure and Performance Trends in Irish Agriculture 1973-2003 Alan Matthews Trinity College Dublin.

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Presentation transcript:

Structure and Performance Trends in Irish Agriculture Alan Matthews Trinity College Dublin

Task of the paper In the light of the immediate challenges to the future of farming… … to examine performance and structural change in Irish agriculture in the 30 years since EU membership Part of the ‘context and rationale for the development of alternative farm enterprises’

Declining role of farming

Fewer numbers at work in farming..

More multiple job-holding

Trend in gross agricultural output

Trends in input use

Ratio of input costs to output

The cattle breeding herd

Growth in milk yields

Growth in sheep and pig numbers

Declining terms of trade

Aggregate farming income

Number and average size of farms

Increase in minimum viable size

Increased scale in dairying

Sweeping change in the pig sector

Widespread distribution of suckler cows

Land market has collapsed

What can we say about growth? Growth momentum appears to be exhausted …not because of the exhaustion of productivity growth… …but because of constraints on increasing output… …the change in policy priorities to give more emphasis to environmental values… …and reducing economic incentives

What can we say about income? Stability in the aggregate income from farming has been supported by increased direct payments …but no budget to pay further compensation in the unreformed sectors.. … and inflation is eating away at the real value of existing payments.. …off-farm income will continue to increase in importance in farm households

What can we say about structures? Rapid structural change at the enterprise level.... and increasing minimum viable farm size.... contrast with the unchanging pace of decline in farm numbers and employment regardless of economic conditions.... and the constipated state of the land market

What can we say about structures? Support to drystock enterprises is encouraging farmers to hold on to land because of the subsidies this attracts while most of the income is coming from off the farm....but drystock is now totally uncompetitive at market prices.. Would funds be better directed at creating viable alternative enterprises to maintain rural areas?