ENERGIZING AMERICA: THE ROLE OF OIL AND NATURAL GAS IN AMERICA’S ENERGY FUTURE Rayola Dougher API Senior Economic Advisor,

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Presentation transcript:

ENERGIZING AMERICA: THE ROLE OF OIL AND NATURAL GAS IN AMERICA’S ENERGY FUTURE Rayola Dougher API Senior Economic Advisor,

Oil & Natural Gas Industry: The Backbone of the American Economy  Supports more than 9 million jobs  Supplies more than 60% of our energy needs  Generates hundreds of billions of dollars in government revenue

Economic Impact of Oil and Natural Gas Industry on North Dakota’s Economy  Supports 37,000 North Dakotan jobs  Supports total value added to North Dakota’s economy of $3.9 billion or 11.8% of GSP

Oil Prices and Profits

Changes in Gasoline and Diesel Prices Mirror Changes in Crude Oil Prices

Oil prices relate to many uncertain factors Speculation, hedging, investment Global economic growth OPEC production decisions Exchange rates and Inflation Spare production capacity Global Oil Prices Non-OPEC supply growth Inventories Geo-political risks Weather

What Consumers are Paying for at the Gasoline Pump Average of gasoline components for January – June, 2011 as reported by EIA

First Quarter 2011 Earnings by Industry (net income/sales) Source: Based on company filings with the federal government as reported by U.S. Census Bureau and Oil Daily.

Who Owns “Big Oil”? (Holdings of Oil Stocks)

U.S. Energy Demand

Future U.S. Energy Demand The U.S. will require 20 percent more energy in 2035 than in 2009

Shale Gas Potential

Shale Gas Plays, Lower 48 States

Four-fold increase in shale gas production offsets declines in other U.S. supply, meeting consumption growth and lowering import needs U.S. dry gas trillion cubic feet per year Alaska Non-associated offshore ProjectionsHistory Associated with oil Coalbed methane Non-associated onshore Shale gas Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook % 9% 7% 9% 8% 20% 14% 8% 2% 8% 7% 46% 1% Tight gas 28% 22% 15 Net imports 11%

Oil Supply

Sources of Crude Oil Supply

Canadian oil sands development a boon to U.S. economy  For every two jobs supported in Canada, one job will be supported in the U.S  Canada’s oil sands can support 600,000 U.S. jobs by  For every US dollar spent on Canadian exports (i.e. crude oil) up to 90 cents is spent on imports of US goods and services to Canada.  $775 billion dollars added to our GDP over next 25 years.

Offshore Undiscovered Technically Recoverable Federal Oil (Bbl) and Natural Gas (Tcf) Resources

FILLING AMERICA’S GAS TANK Within 15 years Canada & US can provide all our liquid fuel needs FILLING AMERICA’S GAS TANK Within 15 years Canada & US can provide all our liquid fuel needs Oil from rest of world Biofuels Oil from Canada US oil production 32% 12% 45% 12% 16% 72% EIA forecastPotential Sources: EIA; Wood Mackenzie Sources of liquid fuel supply: 2026

$31.2 $263.4 $6.9 East Coast (PADD 1) Midwest (PADD 2) $2.1 $7.5 $0.6 $23.9 $61.6 $ Rockies (PADD 4) Gulf Coast (PADD 3) $42.2 $225 $12.7 West Coast, AK & HI (PADD 5) $27.2 $ $8.4 Potential Jobs and Government Revenue Jobs (thousands) 2015 = = 1, = 1,404 Revenue (billions $) 2015 = $ = $ = $800.1 Figures may not add exactly due to rounding. Source: Wood Mackenzie Report, “U.S. Supply Forecast and Potential Jobs and Economic Impacts ( )”, September 7,

Taxes

THE PRESIDENT’S PLAN Taxing success: Taxing oil & natural gas industry THE PRESIDENT’S PLAN Taxing success: Taxing oil & natural gas industry A tax of $90 billion or more on the oil & natural gas industry ‘Fairness?’ $86 million a day in revenue from oil & gas Oil and gas income tax rate 41.1% versus 26.5% for S&P

Proposed Tax Increases on the American Oil and Gas Industry (billions of dollars)

Effective Tax Rates Among Industries (averaged over )

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