NESTED GLOBAL INVERSION WITH A FOCUS ON NORTH AMERICA: COMPARISON WITH 1994-2003 BOTTOM-UP RESULTS IN CANADA Jing M. Chen, University of Toronto Main Contributors:

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Presentation transcript:

NESTED GLOBAL INVERSION WITH A FOCUS ON NORTH AMERICA: COMPARISON WITH BOTTOM-UP RESULTS IN CANADA Jing M. Chen, University of Toronto Main Contributors: Feng Deng, Weiimin Ju, Misa Ishizawa, Gang Mo, & Ken Yuan, University of Toronto Kaz Higuchi, Douglas Chan, Doug Worthy, & Lin Huang, Environment Canada Shamil Maksyutov, National Institute of Environmental Studies, Japan TRANSCOM Annual Meeting, Purdue, April 2007

Upscaling Methodologies Used in Fluxnet Canada/ Canadian Carbon Program 1. Tall tower CO 2 concentration data Site to Landscape 2. Remote sensing and ecosystem modeling (bottom-up) Site to Region 3. Atmospheric inverse modeling (top-down) Region and Globe

Bottom-up Modeling

Comparison of InTEC-modeled and measured NEP at various sites Data sources: Andy Black, Harry McCaughey, Paul Jarvis, Alan Barr, Brian Amiro, Hank Margolis source sink

Datasets Used in Bottom-up Modeling Using InTEC  Land cover 1995  LAI 1994  NPP 1994  Monthly Climate  Forest age map (inventory, large fire polygons, remote sensing)  DEM (hydrological effect on carbon)  Drainage class  Global CO 2 time series  Nitrogen deposition (interpolated from 29 stations)  Soil texture and total carbon  Forest biomass

Chen et al. 2003, Tellus

Spatiotemporal Carbon Dynamics in Canada’s Forests and Wetlands NBP

Chen et al., 2003, Tellus Ju et al., 2006, Tellus.

Top-down Modeling

Nested Global Inversion System 30 small regions in North America, 20 large regions for the rest of the globe (Transcom 3), and 88 CO 2 stations (GlobalView) Deng et al., 2006, Tellus

Models and Data Models –NIES (National Institute of Environmental Studies of Japan), a transport model –BEPS, an ecosystem model, driven by NCEP data, linked with NIES –InTEC NBP results ( ) for partial bottom-up constraint Key Datasets –Globalview baseline station CO 2 data + tall towers (2004 and 2005 versions) –Ocean carbon balance (Takahashi et al., 1997) –Global fields of fossil fuel emission in national emissions in 2002

Nested Global Inversion Results ( , 30 Regions in North America and 50 Regions for the Globe) 2005 version of GlobalView data USA: ± 0.21 PgC/y (sink) Canada: ± 0.18 PgC/y (sink) Red: source Green: sink

Comparison of Results Using Two Versions of GlobalView Data 2004 version of GlovalView data: USA: ± 0.15 PgC/y (sink) Canada: ± 0.14 PgC/y (sink) 2005 version of GlobalView data USA: ± 0.21 PgC/y (sink) Canada: ± 0.18 PgC/y (sink) Upper Bound Lower Bound

Temporal Comparison Between Top-down and Bottom-up Results for Canada’s Forests and Wetlands sink source

Spatial Comparison between Top-down and Bottom-up Results for Canada’s Forests and Wetlands (region by region, 10 year average) sinksource Issues: Large uncertainty in top-down modeling Old forest carbon sink C & N coupling Non-forest sinks Lower bound Upper bound

Effect of Non-diagonal Co-variance Based on Meteorological Conditions

Summary  Both bottom-up and top-down modeling results suggest that Canada’s forests and wetlands were carbon sinks on average in the period from 1994 to  Top-down results show much larger sinks than bottom-up results. Atmospheric CO 2 data pull the surface flux strongly toward the sink direction, indicating that bottom-up sinks values are underestimated.  There are encouraging similarities in the temporal and spatial variation patterns between top-down and bottom-up results, indicating that this mutual constraining methodology is worth pursuing further under the Canadian Carbon Program. Acknowledgement: Bottom-up modeling is mostly supported by FCRN, and top-down modeling is so far supported by two CFCAS individual grants

The issue of old forest sinks Productive forest Non-productive forest

Spatial Comparison between Top-down and Bottom-up Results for Canada’s Forests and Wetlands (region by region, 10 year average) After adjusting for old forests Lower bound Upper bound

Too Much Carbon and Nitrogen Coupling? FACE: nutrient is less limiting at higher CO 2 (W. Schlesinger) Carbon and nitrogen are completely decoupled in LPJ (C. Prentice) C & N coupling can be relaxed by allowing the soil C/N ratio to increase with CO 2 (evidence?)