The Perfect Problem

Why climate change is the “perfect problem” “complex and inaccessible scientific content; “complex and inaccessible scientific content; a substantial (and uncertain) time lag between cause and effect; a substantial (and uncertain) time lag between cause and effect; Americans and Climate Change Abbasi, D. Americans and Climate Change, Yale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies 2006.

inertia in all the key drivers of the problem, from demographic growth to long-lived energy infrastructure to ingrained daily habits at the household level; inertia in all the key drivers of the problem, from demographic growth to long-lived energy infrastructure to ingrained daily habits at the household level; psychological barriers that complicate apprehension and processing of the issue, due in part to its perceived remoteness in time and place; psychological barriers that complicate apprehension and processing of the issue, due in part to its perceived remoteness in time and place; Americans and Climate Change

partisan, cultural, and other filters that cause social discounting or obfuscation of the threat; partisan, cultural, and other filters that cause social discounting or obfuscation of the threat; motivational obstacles, especially the futility associated with what is perhaps the quintessential “collective action problem” of our time; motivational obstacles, especially the futility associated with what is perhaps the quintessential “collective action problem” of our time; Americans and Climate Change

mismatches between the global, cross- sectoral scope of the climate change issue and the jurisdiction, focus, and capacity of exiting institutions; mismatches between the global, cross- sectoral scope of the climate change issue and the jurisdiction, focus, and capacity of exiting institutions; a set of hard-wired incentives, career and otherwise, that inhibit focused attention and action on the issue.” a set of hard-wired incentives, career and otherwise, that inhibit focused attention and action on the issue.” Americans and Climate Change

Urgency and Hope Intergenerational Justice Golden Rule and the Moral Insight Place Prosperity and Individual Wealth Prosperity Alternative Futures The Date of Technological Transition

Important facts, figures and dates Industrial revolution start date, 1750 Industrial revolution start date, 1750 The concentrations of CO 2 has increased by 31% since 1750 The concentrations of CO 2 has increased by 31% since % comes from the combustion of fossil fuels 75% comes from the combustion of fossil fuels The current increase in CO 2 is the greatest in at least the last 20,000 years The current increase in CO 2 is the greatest in at least the last 20,000 years By 2100 the concentrations of CO 2 will be percent of preindustrial levels By 2100 the concentrations of CO 2 will be percent of preindustrial levels

Important facts, figures and dates Estimated temperature increase degrees Celsius Estimated temperature increase degrees Celsius Climate surprises: such as the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, which would raise global sea levels 4-6 meters. Climate surprises: such as the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, which would raise global sea levels 4-6 meters. An increase of 2 Celsius from 1990 levels over the next 100 years places the world at greater risk for catastrophic surprises (2002 article in Science by O’Neil and Oppenheimer) An increase of 2 Celsius from 1990 levels over the next 100 years places the world at greater risk for catastrophic surprises (2002 article in Science by O’Neil and Oppenheimer)

To achieve a fair and effective global response to climate change. Goal

What constitutes a fair response?

What constitutes an effective response?

General alternative approaches Adaptation Mitigation Adaptation-Mitigation

“The core ethical issue concerning global warming is that of how to allocate the costs and benefits of greenhouse gas emissions and abatement.” (Stephen Gardiner, ) What about harms? Questions of Justice

Varieties of Justice and Climate Global Change Distributive Justice Distributive Justice Mitigation Mitigation Adaptation Adaptation Procedural Justice Procedural Justice Intergenerational Justice Intergenerational Justice Environmental Justice Environmental Justice

Intergenerational Justice (Fairness) “How and to what extent can the present generation harm future generations?” “In what ways should the interests of subsequent generations guide present decisions?”

“Given our limited knowledge of people who will live in the future, how should we relate to them under conditions of risk and uncertainty?” “What motivations should we have for fulfilling our duties to future people, given that we know neither their individual identities nor their particular preferences?” Intergenerational Justice (Fairness)

The Golden Rule “So in everything, do to others what you would have them do to you, for this sums up the Law and the Prophets.” Matt. 7:12

The Moral Insight Treat others as you would treat your future self. “But simply try to know the truth. The truth is that all the world of life about thee is as real as thou art. Pain is pain; joy is joy, everywhere even as it is in thee. The result of thy insight will be inevitable.” “Moments of insight, with their accompanying resolutions, long stretches of delusion and selfishness: that is our life.”

“Despite grim warming outlook, scientists say there is still hope” -- Missoulian “I am not about to give up, Hansen wrote. He has hope, he says, because he has grandchildren.” quoting James Hansen, NASA

The Vision Problem: Imagining Alternative Futures “I have a dream!” versus “I have a nightmare!”

“Place prosperity” vs “Individual wealth prosperity” One way children help create our moral world is by keeping us from becoming too self-absorbed. A key point in moral development is learning to think of the needs of others.

The Date of Technological Transition “Climate change policy is energy policy” The date of technological transition is the year in human history in which the accumulated totals of GHGs ceases to grow. “Achieving technological transition will require utilizing current sustainable systems, phasing out fossil fuel systems, retro-fitting and investing in alternative technologies wherever possible.” Henry Shue, “Responsibility to Future Generations and the Technological Transition”

The Date of Technological Transition Time Quantity GHGs Date of Technological Transition for Society B Difference in Quantity of GHGs from A & B Date of Technological Transition for Society A

Physical Dimensions “Consuming what remains of fossil fuels could well lead to a four- to eight-fold increase in CO 2.” At some future point in time it may be impossible to take mitigating efforts. “There may be harms that will occur only if we do nothing because only if we do nothing will climate change become severe enough to cause those harms (Shue).”

Ethics and Risk “The really vital issue does not concern the presence of scientific uncertainty, but rather how we decide what to do under such circumstances (Gardiner).” Decisions under conditions of uncertainty (know unknowns (plausible scenarios) and unknowns (surprises)

Climate Change and Intergenerational Justice The current generation has a moral responsibility to future generations not to let GHG concentrations exceed critical limits. The research and development required for technological transition is a time consuming process. Delays in starting the process may not leave enough time for future generation to accomplish the task and avoid severe consequences.

A Fair Response is an Effective Response There is a general consensus among scientists that the level of CO 2 in the atmosphere is on pace to exceed 450 ppm, a level that could result in unpredictable catastrophic events. Therefore, an effective global climate strategy must aim to limit CO 2 emissions to a level 450 ppm or less (Athanasiou and Baer).

The Date of Technological Transition Time Quantity GHGs Date of Technological Transition for Society B Difference in Quantity of GHGs from A & B Date of Technological Transition for Society A

The moral judgment of future generation on the present generation may be harsh: “They were not for the most part evil people… but they were simply preoccupied with their own comfort and convenience, not very imaginative about human history over the long run, and not particularly sensitive to the plight of strangers distant in time (Shue, 279).”

Steven Gardiner’s summary of the ethical issues Many of the predicted outcomes from climate change seem severe, and some are catastrophic For gradual change, either the probabilities of significant danger from climate change are high or we do not know the probabilities; and for abrupt change the probabilities are unknown. There is widespread endorsement of the view that stabilizing emission would impose a cost of “only” 2 percent of world production Stephen Gardiner, “Ethics and Climate Change” Ethics 114 (April 2004):

“It is people who are now children and people who are not yet born who will reap most of the benefits of any project that mitigates the effects of global warming.” John Broome, 1992, Counting the Costs of Global Warming