1 Welcome & Overview 2 nd Annual Workshop “What are National Security Threats?” Kathleen D. Morrison Co-Director, JTAC Professor of Anthropology Director, Center for International Studies The University of Chicago Charles M. Macal Co-Director, JTAC Director, Center for Complex Adaptive Agent Systems Simulation Argonne National Laboratory

2 What is the Joint Threat Anticipation Center (JTAC)? Joint venture of the University of Chicago and Argonne National Laboratory  Research, Education, Modeling, and Communication  Innovative, forward-thinking work on National Security Threats  Interdisciplinary, international Leading the nation in integrating social science and technology  Constructing the foundations of computational social science for applications to national security  Actively developing and recruiting a new generation of researchers A unique institutional base; cooperative “Center of Excellence”  Dynamic and flexible in project selection and execution  Discovering the “hidden gems” of threat research  Creating a permanent “knowledge management” base

3 Basic Propositions Efforts to identify, understand and anticipate threats to U.S. national security require an appreciation of social, cultural, economic and psychological processes as well as a grounding in regional and historical contexts. An integrative, cross-disciplinary approach is needed to advance efficacy in both modeling and practical decision making relevant to courses of action. Validation of formal and computational models relative to social science theory is the key to establishing standards against which models should be judged.

4 Why Argonne and Chicago? Argonne: Decision and Information Sciences  Multidisciplinary approach to research  Systems: analysis, integration, engineering  Computational social sciences, agent-based modeling and simulation  Expertise in delivery of real-world solutions The University of Chicago: Academic Excellence  Renowned for innovative social science: Political science, economics, sociology, anthropology, psychology, linguistics, history, human development  Area Studies and language  Computational Institute Ongoing Collaborations  Conferences & Workshops  Courses & Training  Research Projects & Publication  Students

5 The Center for International Studies

6 Argonne is a Multi-purpose National Laboratory Operated by the University of Chicago for the U.S. Dept. of Energy

7 1.Establish a recognized “center of excellence” for threat anticipation expertise, promotion, and products 2.Develop the science of threat anticipation through the support of relevant research and education Conduct new social, cultural, behavioral, and economic research relevant to anticipating future threats Develop frameworks and models for integrating cultural knowledge in meaningful ways to support policy analysis Develop a repository for models, publications, and institutional memory of threat anticipation 3.Facilitate a broader dialogue within the research community and between the research, operations, and policy communities Provide activities and contacts that facilitate federal interagency participation and international collaboration Objectives

8 JTAC Activities: Overview 1.Development of Knowledge, Models, Databases, and other tools for Threat Anticipation 2.Frameworks for Verification and Validation of Threat Modeling 3.Communication, Collaboration, and Dissemination of Information and Tools 4.Education and Training

9 Development of models, databases, and other tools Research in Support of Threat Anticipation: –Terrorist Strategy and Tactics  Suicide Terrorism Database and Analysis  Failed States, Insurgent Sanctuaries, & Terrorist Havens –Socio-Cultural Processes and Precursors to Terrorism Terrorist Strategy and Tactics  Poverty, Inequality and Terrorism: GIS Analysis  State Versus Non-State Actors in Territorial Disputes –Language Studies Related to Threat Anticipation and Terrorism  Automatic Machine Translation from Poorly Studied Languages  Emotive Dictionary of Arabic Conflict Terms

10 JTAC Activities: Overview 1.Development of Knowledge, Models, Databases, and other tools for Threat Anticipation 2.Frameworks for Verification and Validation of Threat Modeling 3.Communication, Collaboration, and Dissemination of Information and Tools 4.Education and Training

Spring TAP Workshop, April 7-9, 2005 Threat Anticipation: Social Science Methods and Models  Threat-related research  ASCO model review and panel discussion  Validation of models and relevant social science theory  Government requirements and user needs  Breakout sessions: Area Studies Validation Science Initiative at Argonne  Validation of frameworks for agent based models and social science theory 2006 Spring TAP Workshop, April 3-5, 2006 Frameworks for Verification & Validation of Threat Modeling

12 JTAC Activities: Overview 1.Development of Knowledge, Models, Databases, and other tools for Threat Anticipation 2.Frameworks for Verification and Validation of Threat Modeling 3.Communication, Collaboration, and Dissemination of Information and Tools 4.Education and Training

13 Communication, Collaboration, and Dissemination of Information and Tools Establishment of JTAC web site, jtac.uchicago.edu  Publication of research data, findings  Detailed workshop and conference reports Organization of JTAC list, listhost.uchicago.edu/mailman/listinfo/jtac  187 subscribers, 137 from 45 distinct domestic and international government and military organizations. Hosting and Visits: academic centers of excellence, national labs, & US and international government departments and agencies  Hosted Delegation from Finnish Ministry of Defense/EU  Defense Science and Technology Laboratory, UK  Department of Defense & Department of Foreign Affairs/Trade, Australia

14 JTAC Activities: Overview 1.Development of Knowledge, Models, Databases, and other tools for Threat Anticipation 2.Frameworks for Verification and Validation of Threat Modeling 3.Communication, Collaboration, and Dissemination of Information and Tools 4.Education and Training

15 Education and Training Training graduate students  Enhancing early integration of social science, area studies, and modeling through internships and collaborative research  In FY06, established intern program for advanced Ph.D candidates  Recruiting and connecting students with relevant interests and expertise Established Post-Doctoral “Bridge” Position  Coordinates students, university faculty, and Argonne researchers Enhancing participation in existing programs  Argonne courses, Chicago graduate workshops

16 Workshop Overview  Broad, expert perspectives on national security threats  Biological, Political, Nuclear, Terrorism  Showcase recent JTAC-sponsored research  Breakout sessions on insurgency, terrorism, inter-state conflict  Highlighting graduate research initiatives  Promote participant interaction  Work on social science modeling  Verification, Validation, and Vetting of social and cultural models  Examples of historical and computational research on insurgency