Tel-Aviv University Renewable Energy Conference May 21 st 2008 Climate Change and Middle East Geopolitics: Risks and Opportunities Prof. Dan Rabinowitz.

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Presentation transcript:

Tel-Aviv University Renewable Energy Conference May 21 st 2008 Climate Change and Middle East Geopolitics: Risks and Opportunities Prof. Dan Rabinowitz Dept. of Sociology and Anthropology, TAU and Porter School of Environmental Studies, TAU Vice-Chair, Greenpeace UK

Especially Effected Systems ( IPCC 2007) Mediterranean-type ecosystems (reduction in rainfall) Water resources in some dry regions at mid-latitudes and in the dry tropics (changes in rainfall and evapo-transpiration) Low-lying coastal systems (threat of sea level rise; increased risk from extreme weather events) Agriculture in low latitudes (reduced water availability) Coastal mangroves and salt marshes (multiple stresses) Risks to human health (populations with low adaptive capacity).

Climate Change – Main Impacts Desertification, food crop failure Water stress Sea level rise Ecosystem damage Stronger, more frequent (tropical) storms Disease and epidemic spread (wider insect distributions)

Modelling the recent evolution of global drought and projections for the 21st century with the Hadley Centre climate Model, Eleanor J. Burke, Simon J. Brown and Nikolaos Christidis, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Met Office

איזור המפרץ הפרסי, המזרח התיכון

דלתת הנילוס, מצריים

Source: El Raey (OECD) 2004

"Climate change is best viewed as a threat multiplier which exacerbates existing trends, tensions and instability. The core challenge is that climate change threatens to overburden states and regions which are already fragile and conflict-prone. The risks include political and security risks that directly affect European interests.“ (Solana and Ferrero-Waldner 2008)

The result may be "a vicious circle of degradation, migration and conflicts over territory and borders that threatens the political stability of countries and regions". And: more ‘failed states’, where frustration and disenchantment breed ethnic and religious strife, and political radicalisation. (Solana and Ferrero-Waldner 2008)

Tel-Aviv University Renewable Energy Conference May 21 st 2008 Climate Change and Middle East Geopolitics: Risks and Opportunities Prof. Dan Rabinowitz Dept. of Sociology and Anthropology, TAU and Porter School of Environmental Studies, TAU Vice-Chair, Greenpeace UK