1 The Medium of Wireless An in Depth Analysis of Spectrum Demand, Measurement, and Policy Department of Engineering and Public Policy (EPP) Department of Social and Decision Sciences (SDS) Heinz School of Public Policy and Management (Heinz) Carnegie Mellon University February 14 th 2002

2 Review Panel  Public Officials  Private Industry Representatives  Professors

3 Facts and Focus  “The three most important issues before the FCC today are Spectrum, Spectrum, and Spectrum” - Reed Hundt –Concentrate on broadband wireless applications –The 300MHz – 3GHz range is contentious –Cover both licensed and unlicensed use

4 Research Motivation  Carriers are demanding more spectrum  Unlicensed device sales are exploding  Government agencies want to keep spectrum allocations  There is known about actual spectrum utilization  It is hard to shift spectrum from one service to another

5 Goals  To provide the FCC, NTIA, and other interested organizations with constructive knowledge and insights –Address the “spectrum shortage” –Forecast future demand from emerging technologies –Measure current spectrum usage and demand –Develop and evaluate possible policy frameworks

6 Stakeholders  Public –Consumers  Private Sector –Service Providers –Equipment Manufacturers  Government –FCC –NTIA –Department of Defense –Public Service Providers

7 Presentation Outline  Introduction, Spectrum Demand –Eugene Kim  Spectrum Measurement –Michelle Ng  Spectrum Policy –Lynna Quandt

8 Demand of Spectrum Eugene Kim

9 Agenda  How much spectrum should the FCC allocate to wireless broadband networks? –3rd Generation Licensed Wireless Networks –Unlicensed Wireless Networks spectrum policy epp project course demand group

10 Key Questions  How much spectrum should be allocated to 3G? –Infrastructure costs are influenced by the amount of spectrum, thus influencing market penetration  Is the current allocation of unlicensed spectrum appropriate? –A rising demand for unlicensed wireless devices spectrum policy epp project course demand group

11 Demand Projections  To understand how spectrum should be allocated, we plan to understand and analyze the demand projections for: –Licensed Networks  3G –Unlicensed Networks  x  Bluetooth –Other Unlicensed Uses  Cordless Appliances spectrum policy epp project course demand group

12 Supply  To understand the realized demand we need to understand what services cost spectrum policy epp project course demand group 3G Wireless

13 Methodologies  Contact cellular providers in Pennsylvania about infrastructure plans and costs –Cell density and coverage –Maximum calls per cell –Pricing plans for consumers spectrum policy epp project course demand group 3G Wireless

14 Supply spectrum policy epp project course demand group 3G Wireless

15 Demand  To determine the amount of spectrum needed for the unlicensed band, two key issues need to be taken into consideration –Sales projections –Device density spectrum policy epp project course demand group Unlicensed Spectrum

16 Methodologies  Look at current and past sales (demand) projections –802.11x chipsets –Bluetooth chipsets –Cordless Appliances  Cordless Phones  Baby Monitors spectrum policy epp project course demand group Unlicensed Spectrum

17 Methodologies  Determine a model on user densities in various environments –Academic –Corporate –Public –Private spectrum policy epp project course demand group Unlicensed Spectrum

18 Methodologies  Based on current and future figures and our density models we hope to extrapolate the necessary spectrum needed spectrum policy epp project course demand group Unlicensed Spectrum

19 Issues With Projections  Are current projections independent of each other? –Do projections take into consideration the effect of substitute services? –Are they reasonable?  Total minutes of use  Cost spectrum policy epp project course demand group

20 Proposed Deliverables  Survey of demand projections for 3G  A model of how spectrum allocation affects 3G infrastructure costs  Determine the amount of spectrum needed for the unlicensed band  Critique projection figures and determine their credibility spectrum policy epp project course demand group

21 Current Usage Of Spectrum Michelle Ng

22 Overview  Develop an empirical picture of spectrum utilization levels –Establish usage metrics for contentious licensed bands –Determine whether there is high congestion in unlicensed bands –Create a well-documented measurement methodology spectrum policy epp project course measurement group

23 Target Bands  WRC-2000 proposed bands for 3G –698 – 960 MHz (UHF TV) –1710 – 2025 MHz (Military/NTIA) –2110 – 2200 MHz (Satellite) –2500 – 2690 MHz (MMDS)  Unlicensed bands –902 – 928 MHz (ISM, Crowded) –2400 – 2484 MHz (ISM, ) –5725 – 5850 MHz (UNII) –1910 – 1930 MHz (Unlicensed PCS) spectrum policy epp project course measurement group

24 Pittsburgh Area  Representative urban environment –Pittsburgh Area Population: 2.3 Million  Shadowing issues – area is hilly spectrum policy epp project course measurement group

25 Measurement Sites  High Altitude Measurement Sites –Cathedral of Learning –Mt. Washington  CMU Campus –Model for future spectrum use  Other Locations spectrum policy epp project course measurement group

26 Measurement Issues  Time of Day –Day vs. Night  Signal duration dictates scan rate – (ms) –Cellular (min) –TV (days)  Targeted utilization vs. survey measurements  Limited Resources spectrum policy epp project course measurement group

27 Example Results spectrum policy epp project course measurement group

28 Proposed Deliverables  Analysis of frequency utilization data in the Pittsburgh area –Determine whether current license holders are utilizing their spectrum –Identify underutilized bands in which sharing could potentially be implemented –Measure traffic congestion in unlicensed bands  Documented measurement methodology to facilitate future research  Evaluation of previous studies and analysis of the respective results spectrum policy epp project course measurement group

29 Spectrum Policy Lynna Quandt

30 “Spectrum is the life-blood of your business. Without it, your businesses can’t grow. So my challenge is a straight forward one. We simply have to redouble our efforts to manage the spectrum resource in ways that make more spectrum available. It’s as simple as that. Spectrum scarcity is the ultimate spectrum cap.” -Frm. Chairman Kennard in his remarks to the CTIA, spectrum policy epp project course policy group

31 Increasing Utilization  Past ways the FCC has increased utilization: –Spectrum sharing –Reallocation of users –Considering secondary markets –License flexibility spectrum policy epp project course policy group

32 Past Policy Options  Reallocation of band –FCC reallocated incumbents and re- auctioned licenses –Auction winners paid moving expenses for incumbents  Adding flexibility to bands –FCC rewrote restrictions on license holders so the band could be used for additional services spectrum policy epp project course policy group

33 Reallocation  Used to create PCS band  Pros –Spectrum used for more valuable services –Auction revenue to federal budget  Cons –Must agree on payment to incumbent moving expenses spectrum policy epp project course policy group

34 Adding Flexibility  Used in 900 MHz cellular band  Pros –Doesn’t require moving incumbents –Transition is faster  Cons –Monetary windfall to incumbents spectrum policy epp project course policy group

35 A Different Approach  Combination of past options  Allow flexibility without the relocating incumbents  Decrease windfall to incumbents for selling of flexible licenses –Similar to lottery allocation problem spectrum policy epp project course policy group

36 Extracting Rents for Flexibility  Licensees pay for flexibility to be introduced into existing licenses –Allows for quick introduction of flexibility to bands –No reallocation of incumbents –Federal government retains some income from added services spectrum policy epp project course policy group

37 Issues  Pricing –How to determine cost  Legalities –What legal changes need to be made  Implementation –Is this feasible? spectrum policy epp project course policy group

38 Pricing  Options for implementation –FCC set price that varies by band –Market-based price for flexibility  Which option is more feasible? spectrum policy epp project course policy group

39 Case Studies  Examine band where flexibility has been introduced  Possible Options –900 MHz cellular band –Creation of PCS band –MMDS band  What was the market price of a license before and after flexibility was introduced? spectrum policy epp project course policy group

40 Legalities  Is this legal under current regulation? –If not, what changes would be needed?  How can the current auction system be modified to sell flexibility? spectrum policy epp project course policy group

41 Tasks  Create case studies of past policy options  Examine current auction system and propose modifications  Evaluate current legal regulations and propose possible changes spectrum policy epp project course policy group

42 Questions for Panel  How can we tailor our project to meet the needs of policy makers?  Other comments and feedback