The New Security Agenda Transnational Organised Crime and International Security Derek Lutterbeck, PhD GCSP

Overview Changing Security Paradigms Transnational Organised Crime as a Security Challenge Transnational Organised Crime and Terrorism

Changing Security Paradigms Traditional Challenges –state-based –military –external –direct –territorial –enemy strength –military stability –conquest New Challenges –non-state actors –socio-economic –internal / transnational –diffuse –non-territorial –state weakness –rule of law –corruption

European Security Strategy: “A Secure Europe in a Better World” (12 December 2003) “Large-scale aggression against any Member State is now improbable. Instead, Europe faces new threats which are more diverse, less visible and less predictable” Key threats Terrorism Proliferation of WMD Regional conflicts (Middle East, Kashmir, Great Lakes region, Korean peninsula) State failure Organised Crime

UN High Level Panel: “ (December 2004) UN High Level Panel: “ A more secure world: our shared responsibility” (December 2004) Poverty, infectious disease, environmental degradation Poverty, infectious disease, environmental degradation Inter-state Conflict Inter-state Conflict Conflict within states, including genocide and other large-scale atrocities Conflict within states, including genocide and other large-scale atrocities Proliferation of nuclear, radiological, chemical, biological weapons Proliferation of nuclear, radiological, chemical, biological weapons Terrorism Terrorism Transnational organised crime Transnational organised crime

US National Security Strategy “Enemies in the past needed great armies and great industrial capabilities to endanger America. Now, shadowy networks of individuals can bring great chaos and suffering to our shores for less than it costs to purchase a single tank.” (National Security Strategy of the US, 2002)

Security concerns of EU citizens

What do People fear most? (Human Security Centre poll in 11 countries)

Defence Deepening and Widening of Security Deepening and Widening of Security Vertical Regional/ international SocietyHuman Sectoral Health HealthEconomyEnvironment Politics Politics State

New Security Actors within States Interior/justice ministries Finance ministries Environment ministries Energy ministries Health ministries

Multilateral Security Actors International Organisations - the UN and peace operations - specialised agencies Regional Organisations - military operations - peace-building - multilateral police missions

Private Security Actors NGOs Multinational corporations Private military companies Transnational criminal networks Terrorist groups

Convergence of Internal and External Security Transnational challenges (such as transnational organised crime or transnational terrorism) → blurring of separation between internal and external security → convergence of police and military functions Increasing involvement of military forces in domestic security missions (critical infrastructure protection, border control etc.) Internationalisation of policing

Transnational organised crime: factors behind its expansion Globalisation: Globalisation: –Economic and financial liberalisation –Increasing mobility and migration Political liberalisation Political liberalisation State weakness / economic underdevelopment in some regions of the world State weakness / economic underdevelopment in some regions of the world

Definition of Organised Crime UN Convention Against Transnational Organised Crime: UN Convention Against Transnational Organised Crime: “Organized criminal group” = structured group of three or more persons acting together, over a period of time, with the aim of committing one or more serious crimes ” US Organised Crime Control Act: “The unlawful activities of...a highly organized, disciplined association...”

The Network of Organised Crime Business Organized Crime State Authorities Bribery Corruption Partiality Fraud Money laundering Protection rackets Front Companies Smuggling Bribery Cronyism Economic espionage Monopoly Protection

Transnational crime Crossing of state borders: perpetratorsproductspeopleproceeds digital signals

Transnational crime Transnational crimes committed by: individuals licit enterprises organised crime groups terroristsgovernments

Transnational organised crime: Principal sources of revenue (estimates) Drug trafficking: 321 billion USD (retail level) Human trafficking: billion USD Illicit arms trafficking: billion USD

Illicit Drug Trade in Comparison

Threat of transnational organised crime Direct security threat to weak states Indirect security threat to less vulnerable states Threat to: –good governance –state institutions –legal markets / economic development –individuals

Dimensions of state weakness Territorial: territories escaping control of state (lawless areas, no-go zones etc.) Legal: gaps in legislation which organised crime may exploit Political: lack of legitimacy, corruption Economic: poor economic performance, large illegal economy Social: ‘culture’ of criminality / corruption

Current trends in Organised Crime in the EU area (Europol assessment) Organised crime dominated by indigenous groups, but growing links with non-indigenous groups ‘ Ethnic’ basis of organised crime Linked to illegal immigration / fraudulent asylum applications Widening of crime portfolio (diversification) Trend towards more loose network structures Abuse of legal company structures to conduct or hide criminal activities

Transnational Organised Crime as an Issue of ‘Hard Security’ Organised Crime and Terrorism Organised Crime and Violent Conflict Organised Crime and Nuclear Material Trafficking

Transnational Organised Crime and Terrorism : Key Differences Transnational Organised crime Economic motivation Seeks to weaken but not to destroy state institutions Terrorism Political motivation Seeks to destroy the state or to change the political system in fundamental ways

Convergence between organised crime and terrorism Alliances between organised crime groups and terrorists Terrorist groups pursuing criminal activities (to finance their activities) Organised crime groups using terror tactics (to shape their operational environment) Hybrid groups

Example of Terrorism/Crime nexus: Madrid bombings Involvement of both religious extremists and criminals Key role: Moroccan drug trafficking network (Jamal Ahmidan) Purchase of explosives against hashish Other criminal activities: robbery, credit and phone card fraud, vehicle theft etc. Importance of contacts from prison Radicalisation of criminals in prison Criminals not only in support/logistics but also in operational / attack role

Organised Crime and Violent Conflict Changing nature of violent conflict Organised crime have impact on –outbreak –course –aftermath of armed conflict of armed conflict

Fighting Transnational Organised Crime: International Police Cooperation Expansion of police cooperation in response to growth in cross-border crime International –Interpol –G8 Lyon Group Regional –Europol –SECI Centre (Bucharest) Bilateral cooperation between countries –Exchange of evidence –Legal assistance –Extradition etc.

Some Dilemmas in Fighting Transnational Organised Crime Combating illicit cross-border activities typically also hampers legal cross-border exchanges More intrusive policing might threaten civil liberties Criminal employment might be better than high unemployment Dirty money might be better than no FDI