Identifying systems that can lead to extreme weather events in the Caribbean

Tropical Depressions, Storms and Hurricanes §Intense and high volume rainfall §Strong winds §Rough seas and surges

Other systems §Tropical waves §Inter-tropical convergence zone §Upper-level troughs §Cold fronts §El Niño-related drought

Tropical Waves §Perturbation in easterly wind flow §Move off the West Coast of Africa §Migrate across the Atlantic §May to October/November §One every 3 to 4 days §Spawn tropical storms and hurricanes §Potential for intense rainfall §Potential for high sea swells

ITCZ §Confluence of NE and SW Trades §Migrates north and south with the sun/seasons §Hot towers §Gives Guyana double rainfall peak §Potential for intense rainfall §Often interacts with Tropical Waves

Upper Level Troughs §Trough in the mid to upper level westerlies §Moves east to west §Interacts with TW which can result in explosive cloud development and intense rainfall

Cold Front Intrusion §Moves from the colder north in the tropics §Brings with it cold air §In the past has been a concern for banana and citrus farmers in Belize §Brings ‘unseasonal’? rainfall as far as eastern Caribbean during the dry season

Preparing/planning for climate variability now provides the initial framework for adaptation to any future change in climate