Update on Emissions Component of GCAP Phase 2 Project David G. Streets Argonne National Laboratory Science Team Meeting Harvard University, October 12, 2007

2 Contents Update on recent emissions in China: NO x growth Update on current Asian emissions: INTEX 2006 inventory Update on future emissions for 2050 Improvements to current Hg emissions for China Forecasting future global Hg emissions for 2050

3 We have been developing annual NO x emission inventories for China, , to compare with satellite observations (Zhang et al., JGR, in press, 2007JD008684).

4 We cannot replicate the exceptionally high growth rates reported by Richter et al. [Nature, 2005] (95%, ), but we still get a 61% increase.

5 We have been investigating the seasonal trends in emissions and satellite observations in China.

6 Best-guess inventory scenario Maximum inventory scenario Winter Summer

7 Incompatibility between current trends and long-term forecasts of NO x emissions in China

8 SO 2 emissions growth in China through 2006

9 INTEX inventory for 2006 is now available at this website: NO x CO PM 2.5 SO 2

10 The new INTEX inventory includes SO 2, NO x, CO, PM 10, PM 2.5, BC, OC, NMVOC (several speciation mechanisms). No change to NH 3 and CH INTEX-B Inventory Unit: Gg of SO 2 PowerIndustryResidentialTransportationTotal China Total Other East Asia Total Southeast Asia Total South Asia Total Asia Total TRACE-P Inventory Unit: Gg of SO 2 PowerIndustryResidentialTransportationTotal China Total Other East Asia Total Southeast Asia Total South Asia Total Asia Total Changes PowerIndustryResidentialTransportationTotal China Total82.8%32.3%13.0%-69.8%52.8% Other East Asia Total-20.0%-24.0%-23.6%15.4%-19.0% Southeast Asia Total86.1%88.2%16.0%39.5%74.0% South Asia Total-13.6%87.6%-11.2%13.8%23.5% Asia Total56.9%43.0%7.6%-3.7%43.4%

11 Future projections for 2050 are based on IPCC scenarios

12 We follow the IMAGE (RIVM) regional nomenclature

13 We have re-estimated future BC and OC emissions, including more source types and better matching to IMAGE sources. Anthropogenic BC emissions have increased, mainly in A1B. Old New

14 Global mercury emissions, year 2000, 0.5° resolution (Wilson et al., Atmos. Environ., 2006)

15 Hg emission estimates for China and uncertainty In general, the uncertainty level has diminished over time, But, this is primarily due to decreased emissions from those Hg sources that have the largest uncertainty in both activity levels and emission factors, such as artisanal gold smelting, mercury mining, and battery/fluorescent lamp production.

16 Projections of coal use and electricity demand for power plants in China 1)Nationwide, coal-based electricity is projected to increase at an annual rate of 7.5% in , and 3.8% in )As a result, coal use reaches 1.29 billion tons in 2010 and 1.77 billion tons in 2020.

17 Expected penetration of FGD in China 2010: 58% nationwide We assume the Hg removal efficiency of future plants to be: 74% (ESP+FGD) 2020: 67% nationwide

18 Projected trends of mercury emissions in the power sector in China out to 2020 Reduction by planned FGD Reductions by S1 and S2 1)By 2010, penetration of FGD should keep Hg emissions close to the 2003 level. 2)By 2020, only faster penetration of new control technology combinations (Activated Carbon Injection or SCR) can offset the increasing Hg emissions.

19 We will follow our general approach for estimating future emissions of BC/OC to estimate future global mercury emissions

20 We have detailed fuel/technology/world region profiles for the four main IPCC SRES

21 Just like with BC and OC, we will forecast future Hg emissions (never been done before), combining the BC/OC and China Hg forecasting experience. Year 2000Year 2050 A1B, A2, B1, B2

22 Summary Emissions growth has been high in Asia since 2000 and we can provide updated emission estimates for 2006 via the INTEX dataset. We are working to expand our abilities to improve VOC speciation (which will change overall reactivity) and rapidly generate alternative schemes. Only changes to future emissions right now are slightly increased BC and OC emissions from anthropogenic sources (no big change to biomass emissions). We have emissions trend data for Hg emissions from China in recent years (growing fast like NO x ). We have forecast future Hg emissions from China. We have present-day global Hg emissions, updated for China. Also we are checking natural emissions, re-emission, and compatibility with observations for China. In this present project, we will combine experiences to estimate future global Hg emissions.