TRI-COUNTY ECONOMIC FORECAST CONFERENCE California Economic Outlook Nancy D. Sidhu, Ph.D. VP & Senior Economist January 11, 2007.

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Presentation transcript:

TRI-COUNTY ECONOMIC FORECAST CONFERENCE California Economic Outlook Nancy D. Sidhu, Ph.D. VP & Senior Economist January 11, 2007

THEMES FOR 2007 Slower economic growth Slower economic growth Housing activity declines Housing activity declines Still Strength elsewhere Still Strength elsewhere

3 U.S. ECONOMIC GROWTH % Change in Real GDP, Year-Over-Year Sources: BEA, estimate & forecasts by LAEDC

4 GDP COMPARISONS % Change in Real GDP, Year-Over-Year Source: BEA

CONSUMER INFLATION RATE Year/Year % Change Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

SPOT ENERGY PRICES $/Mcf$/Barrel Sources: EIA, Natural Gas Weekly

PRICE/COST PRESSURES % Change vs. Previous December Sources: BLS, USDA, Bridge/Commodity Research Bureau

LABOR COMPENSATION -- WEST Source: BLS

UNEMPLOYMENT HAS COME DOWN Source: BLS, CA EDD % (SA) Latest 4.5% 4.6%

AFTER-TAX CORPORATE PROFITS Unadjusted, Yr/Yr % Change Latest Quarter Plotted: 3Q 2006 Year: Quarter Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

BUSINESS SPENDING -- EQUIPMENT Billions of $ 2000 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Sources: BLS, CA EDD

Source: California Employment Development Dept. CHANGE IN NONFARM EMPLOYMENT -- MAJOR INDUSTRIES IN CALIFORNIA (Nov ‘06 / Nov ‘05) 0

16 REGIONAL GROWTH PATTERN Year/Year % Change (Smoothed) Source: CA Employment Development Dept. Latest month: November 2006

Source: CA BOE

CALIFORNIA VEHICLE REGISTRATIONS 000s of Passenger-type Vehicles Source: CA DOF

MEDIAN HOME PRICE IN CALIFORNIA $ Thousands Nov ‘06 $555,290 Source: California Association of REALTORS®

CALIFORNIA NONRESIDENTIAL BUILDING PERMITS

PUBLIC CONSTRUCTION Billions of $2005 Source: Construction Industry Research Board

AGRICULTURE: BETTER (Gross Cash Income in CA) Billions of $ Sources: CA Dept. of Agriculture

DoD PRIME CONTRACT AWARDS $ Billions

27 LOCATION PRODUCTION DAYS 26,698 33,982 43,982 47,669 45,653 46,41046,808 43,976 44,44244,231 52,707 All Others Features Source: FilmLA Inc. 54,904 42,19841,619

TECHNOLOGY JOB TRENDS IN CALIFORNIA Thousands of Jobs Source: California Employment Development Department

CA EXPORTS BY INDUSTRY Year/Year % Change Source: MISER

TOTAL CARGO HANDLED AT LA/LB PORTS TEU in Thousands Sources: Ports of Los Angeles & Long Beach Latest month plotted: November 2006

TOTAL CARGO HANDLED AT PORT OF OAKLAND TEUs (000) Source: Port of Oakland Latest month plotted: November 2006

HOTEL OCCUPANCY RATES Source: PKF Consulting Occupancy rates (%)

HOTEL AVERAGE DAILY ROOM RATES Source: PKF Consulting $

CALIFORNIA TAX REVENUES Year/Year % Change Source: CA Department of Finance

CALIFORNIA ECONOMIC FORECAST Forecast Source: LAEDC

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