National Centers for Environmental Prediction: An Overview “Where America’s Climate, Weather, Ocean and Space Weather Services Begin” Dr. Louis W. Uccellini National Centers for Environmental Prediction Director 1 March 2, 2011 Visit of Southeastern University Research Association

2 Research, Development and Technology Infusion Respond & Feedback NCEP’s Role in NOAA’s Seamless Suite of Products and Forecast Services IBM Supercomputer Gaithersburg, MD Distribute Observe Products & Forecast Services To Serve Diverse Customer Base e.g., Energy Officials, DHS/FEMA, Emergency Managers, Water Resource Planning, Transportation, Health organizations (CDC…) NCEP Feedback - Process - Assimilate - Predict - Process - Assimilate - Predict Prediction is now inherently linked to numerical models Central Guidance Central Guidance Local Offices Local Offices

Mission: NCEP delivers science-based environmental predictions to the nation and the global community. We collaborate with partners and customers to produce reliable, timely, and accurate analyses, guidance, forecasts and warnings for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy. 3 Organization: Central component of NOAA National Weather Service NCEP Supports the NOAA Seamless Suite of Climate Weather and Ocean Products Vision: The Nation’s trusted source, first alert and preferred partner for environmental prediction services Space Weather Prediction Center NCEP Central Operations Climate Prediction Center Environmental Modeling Center Hydromet Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center National Hurricane Center Storm Prediction Center Aviation Weather Center

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5 What Does NCEP Do? -Model Development, Implementation and Applications for Global and Regional Weather, Climate, Oceans and now Space Weather -International Partnerships in Ensemble Forecasts -Data Assimilation including the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation -Super Computer, Workstation and Network Operations “From the Sun to the Sea” Solar Monitoring, Warnings and Forecasts Climate Seasonal Forecasts El Nino – La Nina Forecast Weather Forecasts to Day 7 Extreme Events (Hurricanes, Severe Weather, Snowstorms, Fire Weather) Aviation Forecasts and Warnings High Seas Forecasts and Warnings 5

6 Climate/Weather Linkage Week 2 Hazards Assessment ForecastUncertaintyForecastUncertainty Minutes Hours Days 1 Week 2 Week Months Seasons Years NOAA Seamless Suite of Forecast Products Spanning Climate and Weather CPC Forecast Lead Time Warnings & Alert Coordination Watches Forecasts Threats Assessments Guidance Outlook Benefits TPCOPC HPC SWPCAWCSPC Service Center Perspective Winter Weather Desk Days 1-3 Tropical Storms to Day 5 Severe Weather to Day 8 Fire Weather Outlooks to Day 8 : NDFD, Days Day Forecast MaritimeMaritime Life & Property Space Operations RecreationRecreation EcosystemEcosystem EnvironmentEnvironment Emergency Mgmt AgricultureAgriculture Reservoir Control Energy Planning CommerceCommerce HydropowerHydropower Fire Weather HealthHealth AviationAviation Seasonal Predictions

7 Climate/Weather Linkage ForecastUncertaintyForecastUncertainty Minutes Hours Days 1 Week 2 Week Months Seasons Years NOAA Seamless Suite of Forecast Products Spanning Climate and Weather North American Ensemble Forecast System Climate Forecast System Forecast Lead Time Warnings & Alert Coordination Watches Forecasts Threats Assessments Guidance Outlook Benefits Short-Range Ensemble Forecast Ocean Model HYCOM Wave Watch III Global Forecast System North American Forecast Rapid Update Cycle for Aviation Dispersion Models for DHS NCEP Model Perspective MaritimeMaritime Life & Property Space Operations RecreationRecreation EcosystemEcosystem EnvironmentEnvironment Emergency Mgmt AgricultureAgriculture Reservoir Control Energy Planning CommerceCommerce HydropowerHydropower Fire Weather HealthHealth AviationAviation Hurricane – GFDL, WRF GLOFS Bays Chesapeake Tampa Delaware

WRF NMM/ARW Workstation WRF Chesapeake Tampa Delaware ADCIRC 8 Air Quality WRF: ARW, NMM ETA, RSM GFS, Canadian Global Model Regional NAM WRF NMM North American Ensemble Forecast System Hurricane GFDL HWRF Global Forecast System Dispersion ARL/HYSPLIT For eca st Severe Weather Rapid Update for Aviation Climate CFSv2 Short-Range Ensemble Forecast NOAA’s Model Production Suite MOM4 NOAH Land Surface Model Coupled Global Data Assimilation Oceans HYCOM WAVEWATCH III NAM/CMAQ 8 Regional DA Regional DA Satellites + Radar 99.9% 3.5B Obs/Day NOS PORTS GLOFS

Computing Capability Number of Hits (Millions) Popularity of NCEP Models Web Page “reliable, timely and accurate” Transition to IBM Power 6 complete –Declared operational August 12, 2009 –73.1 trillion calculations/sec –Factor of 4 increase over the IBM Power5 –156 POWER6 32-way nodes –4,992 processors –20 terabytes of memory –330 terabytes of disk space –3.5 billion observations/day –27.8 million model fields/day Primary: Gaithersburg, MD Backup: Fairmont, WV –Guaranteed switchover in 15 minutes –Web access to models as they run on the CCS 2010

Examples of Forecast Metrics 10

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EMCWRF Developmental Test Center, NASA/ NOAA/DoD Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation CPCClimate Test Bed NHCJoint Hurricane Test Bed HPCHydrometeorological Test Bed SPCHazardous Weather Test Bed with NSSL SWPCSpace Weather Prediction Test Bed with AFWA AWCAviation Weather Test Bed OPClinked with EMC’s Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch(CSDL and CO-OPS) Test Beds Service – Science Linkage between the Operational and Research Communities 14

Joint Hurricane Testbed Managed through the NOAA USWRP Designed to accelerate R2O at the USWRP Principal Investigators apply for funding through NOAA A seven member Steering Committee rates all proposals Funded projects are tested during one or two hurricane seasons in conjunction with NHC/EMC points of contact At the project’s end, each are evaluated by NHC/EMC staff Implementation of successful projects are then carried out by NHC/EMC staff/PIs 1) Number of projects supported: 62 –50 completed, 35.5 accepted for operational implementation, 5 rejected –9.5 completed but pending further investigation –12 projects in process: 12 2) Number of projects implemented: 31.5 –10 numerical modeling related projects implemented by EMC/NCO –21.5 projects implemented by NHC –4 projects accepted but not yet fully implemented by NHC: 4 15 Process 2001 – 2010 Summary

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Hazardous Weather Testbed Jointly managed by NSSL, SPC and WFO Norman Designed to accelerate the transition of promising new meteorological insights and technologies into advances in forecasting and warning for hazardous mesoscale weather events throughout the United States Composed of two program areas –Experimental Forecast Program focuses on application of cutting edge numerical weather prediction models to improve severe weather forecasts Accelerated Multi-Model Ensemble mesoscale application Introduced probabilistic severe wx outlooks based on ensembles –Experimental Warning Program tests research concepts and technology specifically aimed at short-fused warnings of severe convective weather Annual NOAA HWT Spring Experiment attracts about 100 researchers and forecasters to Norman each year. 17

Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation Partners: NASA, NOAA, and DoD (USAF &USN) Mission: To accelerate use of satellite observations in partners’ operational environmental modeling systems Keys to Success –Common science priorities, coordinated efforts, shared results –Research based on operational needs – transitionable results –Balance Research Program ~ 40 External Projects ~ 100 Internal Projects Notable Achievements –Community Radiative Transfer Model –Assimilation of Advanced Sensor Data AIRS, IASI, SSMIS, Winds, COSMIC –Joint OSSE System Development –Strong Outreach Program Annual Science Workshop Joint Workshops – ECMWF, HFIP Biennial Colloquium for Students 18

Advancing Climate Prediction: The Climate Test Bed Jointly established in 2004 by NCEP and NOAA Climate Program Office Serves as conduit between the operational, academic and research communities 19 Mission To accelerate the transition of scientific advances from the climate research community to improved NOAA climate forecast products and services Mission To accelerate the transition of scientific advances from the climate research community to improved NOAA climate forecast products and services Research to Operations (R2O) Operations to Research (O2R) Focus Areas –CFS Improvements –Multi Model Ensemble (MME) Prediction Systems –Climate Forecast Products Competitive Grants Program CTB Seminar Series CPC/CTB - RISA Program Distinguished Visiting Scientist Program Delivered unified statistical post- processing after CFS version 1 Research to Operations (R2O) Operations to Research (O2R) Focus Areas –CFS Improvements –Multi Model Ensemble (MME) Prediction Systems –Climate Forecast Products Competitive Grants Program CTB Seminar Series CPC/CTB - RISA Program Distinguished Visiting Scientist Program Delivered unified statistical post- processing after CFS version 1

Hydrometeorological Prediction Center HydroMeteorological Testbed Jointly managed by OAR/ESRL and HPC Goal: To accelerate the transfer of scientific and technological innovations into operations to enhance HPC products and services Roles: Identify and test new techniques to improve HPC forecasts Provide training in new techniques to HPC forecasters Host visiting forecasters and scientists Principal Collaborators: Other NOAA Testbeds (e.g. HWT, JHT) Forecasters and academia Description 32

Hydrometeorological Prediction Center HMT-HPC Winter Weather Experiment Jan 10 – Feb 11, 2011 HRW-NMMObservedHRW-ARWExperimental NAM 14 participants (WFOs, SPC, AWC, HPC, EMC, ESRL, and COMET) Can high-resolution models improve Day 1 forecasts of precipitation type and amount? Can we better quantify and communicate winter weather uncertainty for Day 1-2 forecasts?

OPC thoughts on an Ocean-Coastal Testbed Ocean Prediction Center within NOAA family Traditional role Provides operational data and forecast services Facilitate R2O by linking science and users Future Directions An operational infrastructure to deliver relevant (e.g., clock driven) NOAA services Enabling a broad range of NOAA applications (e.g., ocean, coastal, ecological) services Must rely on NOAA (e.g., NOS) R&D resource and expertise for product development Potential testbed focus areas Physical forecasts and guidance Storm Surge / Inundation Wind Current Interactions Water quality services Sea Surface Salinity data applications and assessments Ocean Color data applications Enhancement of Harmful Algal Blooms, service delivery Ensemble (probabilistic) approaches

23 Forces for Change Model Region 1 Model Region 2 Global/Regional Model Domain ESMF-based System Increasing emphasis on multi-model ensemble approaches that build on the NCEP model suite –SREF –NAEFS –Climate Forecast System (EUROSIP) Entering the JPSS era –More rapid access to hyperspectral data –GPS soundings –Higher resolution surface radiance data All models run within ESMF –Models run concurrently –Hybrid vertical coordinate –Coupled –Spanning all scales Operational Earth System model – more explicit hydro, climate and ecosystems applications

Land Ocean Predictions Driven by Global Observing Systems Real-time operations require world’s largest computers BIOLOGY/CHEMISTRY NOW BEING INCLUDED Atmosphere Cryosphere Model Production Suite 24

25 Ecological Forecast System: Ongoing Prototype Projects Chesapeake Bay Beach/Water Quality Living Resource Distribution Dissolved Oxygen Predictions Harmful Algal Bloom Disease Pathogen Progression Gulf Coast Gulf of Maine Great Lakes California Current Oysters, Fish, Sea nettles... Vibrio... Satellite Images of Saharan Dust Moving Across Atlantic Algal Blooms and Dead Zones Barnacles, Muscles

Ecosystem Prediction 26 Predicted chance of encountering sea nettles, C. quinquecirrha, on August 17, 2007 Automatically generate daily nowcasts and 3-day forecasts of Sea Nettles, Chrysaora quinquecirrha, in Chesapeake Bay Generated since 2002 Important for water management and recreational purposes * Research initiated, developed and results demonstrated by NOS and NESDIS with regional partners and customers Predicting Sea Nettles in Chesapeake Bay Current Demonstration Ready for Transition*

Many of the oceanic consequences of climate change can best be explored with realistic high- resolution global ocean climate models, like those now being developed at GFDL. Example below: The roles of ocean transport and microbial decay in determining the impacts of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, explored with a 1/8° global ocean climate model in a collaboration between NOAA/GFDL & NOAA/OR&R. Simulated Dissolved Oil Concentrations in the Mixed Layer on July 15, 2010 Reference: A. Adcroft, R. Hallberg, J.P. Dunne, B.L. Samuels, J.A. Galt, C.H. Barker and D.Payton (2010): Simulations of underwater plumes of dissolved oil in the Gulf of Mexico, Geophys. Res. Lett., doi: /2010GL044689, in press. Recent Research Highlight from GFDL: High-resolution Ocean Modeling of DWH Recent Research Highlight from GFDL: High-resolution Ocean Modeling of DWH Omitting Microbial Decay with Microbial Decay (6 day Half-life)

The developer stopped work in December 2008 when NCWCP construction was 80% complete. In May 2009, the developer filed a claim in Federal Court to recover “damages” from the Government. This claim was dismissed without prejudice in August In October 2010, the developer filed an appeal; resolution of this appeal is pending. In June 2009, the developer filed for bankruptcy with the County Court. In response, the court appointed a “Receiver” to complete the project. In November 2010, the court approved the Receiver’s plan and granted the receiver permission to resume construction. In December 2010, the Receiver petitioned the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit for dismissal of the previous claim filed by Maryland Enterprises. The Federal Court granted the motion on February 9, 2011 and dismissed the claim filed by the developer. These actions cleared away all remaining legal obstacles for the restart of work on the NCWCP project. GSA’s goal is to reach project completion approximately 12 months after re-start of construction. GSA’s most current estimate for the building’s substantial completion is March 2012 with complete move-in by July New Building Status

29 Summary NCEP is –Strategically aligned with NOAA’s “seamless suite” of products from the “Sun to the Sea” –Continually improving collaborative forecasts – especially for extreme events –Working with NOAA on expanded responsibilities (e.g, oceans air and water quality, ecology, space weather…); success is based on interdisciplinary approach –A critical transition agent in the NOAA “research to operations” process involving observations, data assimilation, modeling, and service delivery –Actively pursuing opportunities for collaboration in research, transition to operations and operational production and delivery of services with national and international communities 29

Appendix 30

32 Organizational Chart for the National Weather Service Space Weather Prediction Center National Hurricane Center

33 Climate/Weather Linkage Week 2 Hazards Assessment ForecastUncertaintyForecastUncertainty Minutes Hours Days 1 Week 2 Week Months Seasons Years NOAA Seamless Suite of Forecast Products Spanning Climate and Weather CPC Forecast Lead Time Warnings & Alert Coordination Watches Forecasts Threats Assessments Guidance Outlook Benefits TPCOPC HPC SWPCAWCSPC Service Center Perspective Winter Weather Desk Days 1-3 Tropical Storms to Day 5 Severe Weather to Day 8 Fire Weather Outlooks to Day 8 : NDFD, Days Day Forecast MaritimeMaritime Life & Property Space Operations RecreationRecreation EcosystemEcosystem EnvironmentEnvironment Emergency Mgmt AgricultureAgriculture Reservoir Control Energy Planning CommerceCommerce HydropowerHydropower Fire Weather HealthHealth AviationAviation Seasonal Predictions

Record Scores Record Improvement

35 AttributeOperational ConfigurationQ1FY11 Configuration Analysis Resolution200 km38 km Atmosphere model1995: 200 km/28 levels Humidity based clouds 100 km/64 levels Variable CO2 AER SW & LW radiation Prognostic clouds & liquid water Retuned mountain blocking Convective gravity wave drag Ocean modelMOM-3: 60N-65S 1/3 x 1 deg. Assim depth 750 m MOM-4 fully global ¼ x ½ deg. Assim depth 4737 m Land surface model (LSM) and assimilation 2-level LSM No separate land data assim 4 level Noah model GLDAS driven by obs precip Sea iceClimatologyDaily analysis and Prognostic sea ice CouplingDaily30 minutes Data assimilationRetrieved soundings, 1995 analysis, uncoupled background Radiances assimilated, 2008 GSI, coupled background Reforecasts15/month seasonal output25/month (seasonal) 124/month (week 3-6) Climate Forecast System (CFS) Planned Upgrade for Q1FY11

36 National Environmental Modeling System FY11; Q3 12 km 4 km 6 km 3 km 1.5 km 1.33 km Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM)  NonHydrostatic Multiscale Model on B grid (NMMB) -- Physics retuned for NMMB -- Additional data sets: Windsat, ASCAT, ACARS humidity, NOAA-19 (HIRS and AMSU-A), IASI radiances, AQUA (AMSU-A), GPS (radio occultation) Parent (12 km) – 84 hrs Children (6, 4 & 3 km) – 60 hrs IMET (1.5 & 1.33 km) – 36 hrs

37 EUROSIP Update MOU signed in July 2010 to include NCEP as EUROSIP partner (along with ECMWF, Meteo- France, UKMet) The EUROSIP hindcast data files have been downloaded to computers VAPOR and STRATUS (in restricted access directories) CPC has FY11 milestone to develop and test a seasonal multi-model ensemble forecast tool that combines CFS and EUROSIP 37

Day at which forecast loses useful skill (AC=0.6) N. Hemisphere 500hPa height calendar year means Forecast day 8.02d

(preliminary)