1 Sensitivity of air-sea exchange coefficients (Cd and Ch) on hurricane size and intensity of HWRF Young Kwon and Robert Tuleya EMC/NCEP/NWS/NOAA HFIP.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Impact of cumulus parameterization on motion, structure, intensity: preliminary results Robert Fovell and Yizhe Peggy Bu University of California, Los.

Advertisements

A thermodynamic model for estimating sea and lake ice thickness with optical satellite data Student presentation for GGS656 Sanmei Li April 17, 2012.

First Law of Thermodynamics The internal energy dU changes when: 1.heat dQ is exchanged between a parcel and its environment 2.work is done by a parcel.

Operational Hurricane Model Diagnostics at EMC Hurricane Diagnostics and Verification Workshop NHC, Miami, FL 4 May 2009 – 6 May 2009 Vijay Tallapragada,

A drag parameterization for extreme wind speeds that leads to improved hurricane simulations Gerrit Burgers Niels Zweers Vladimir Makin Hans de Vries EMS.

Hurricanes Innovative Grid-Enable Multiple-scale Hurricane modeling system Konstantinos Menelaou International Hurricane Research Center Department of.

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Review June 30 - July 2, 2009 Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Review June 30 - July 2, 2009.

Further Development of a Statistical Ensemble for Tropical Cyclone Intensity Prediction Kate D. Musgrave 1 Mark DeMaria 2 Brian D. McNoldy 3 Yi Jin 4 Michael.

Circulation in the atmosphere

Sensitivity of High-Resolution Simulations of Hurricane Bob (1991) to Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterizations SCOTT A. BRAUN AND WEI-KUO TAO PRESENTATION.

Ensemble Forecasting of Hurricane Intensity based on Biased and non-Gaussian Samples Zhan Zhang, Vijay Tallapragada, Robert Tuleya HFIP Regional Ensemble.

2013 Upgrades to the Operational GFDL/GFDN Hurricane Model Morris A. Bender, Timothy Marchok Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NOAA Isaac Ginis, BijuThomas,

Progress in Developing Coupled Tropical Cyclone-Wave-Ocean Models for Operational Implementations at NOAA and Navy Isaac Ginis Morris Bender, Tetsu Hara,

Tropical Cyclones - genesis depends on ocean conditions - huge removal of heat energy from ocean - damage primarily from storm surge caused by strong.

1 Progress Towards Developing a Coupled Atmosphere-Wave-Ocean Framework for Research and Operational Hurricane Models Isaac Ginis B. Thomas, R. Yablonsky,

Christina R. Holt 1,2,3, Greg Thompson 1,4, Ligia Bernardet 1,2,3, Mrinal Biswas 1,4, Craig Hartsough 1,2,3 Testing Hurricane WRF with Alternate Radiation.

4-6 May 2009 Co-hosted by Naomi Surgi, Mark DeMaria, Richard Pasch, Frank Marks 4-6 May 2009 Co-hosted by Naomi Surgi, Mark DeMaria, Richard Pasch, Frank.

HWRF Model Sensitivity to Non-hydrostatic Effects Hurricane Diagnostics and Verification Workshop May 4, 2009 Katherine S. Maclay Colorado State University.

1 Short term plan to assist 2011 HWRF implementation HFIP Stream 1 Regional Hurricane Model Diagnostics Planning Meeting, 11/08/2010.

Air-Sea Interaction in Hurricanes Kerry Emanuel Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Genesis Potential Index and ENSO Suzana J. Camargo.

Hurricane Model Transitions to Operations at NCEP/EMC 2007 IHC Conference, New Orleans  Robert Tuleya*, V. Tallapragada,  Y. Kwon, Q. Liu, W. O’Connor,

Chris Birchfield Atmospheric Sciences, Spanish minor.

Improvements to GFDN Planned for Operational Implementation in 2008 Morris Bender, Timothy Marchok (GFDL) Isaac Ginis, Biju Thomas, Richard Yablonsky (URI)

USE OF A MODIFIED SHIPS ALGORITHM FOR HURRICANE INTENSITY FORECASTS

2011 operational HWRF model upgrades EMC/NCEP/NWS/NOAA Young C. Kwon, V. Tallapragada, R. Tuleya, Q. Liu, K. Yeh*, S. Gopal*, Z. Zhang, S. Trahan and J.

Applications of ATMS/CrIS to Tropical Cyclone Analysis and Forecasting Mark DeMaria and John A. Knaff NOAA/NESDIS/STAR Fort Collins, CO Andrea Schumacher,

Diurnal Water and Energy Cycles over the Continental United States Alex Ruane John Roads Scripps Institution of Oceanography / UCSD February 27 th, 2006.

The diagram shows weather instruments A and B.

Prediction of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones with the Advanced Hurricane WRF (AHW) Model Jimy Dudhia Wei Wang James Done Chris Davis MMM Division, NCAR Jimy.

Implementation of New Air-Sea Exchange Coefficients(Cd/Ch) into the Operational HWRF Model: Impact on Hurricane Intensity Forecast Skill Young C. Kwon,

Statistical Evaluation of the Response of Intensity to Large-Scale Forcing in the 2008 HWRF model Mark DeMaria, NOAA/NESDIS/RAMMB Fort Collins, CO Brian.

Hurricane structure and intensity change : Effects of wind shear and Air-Sea Interaction M é licie Desflots Rosenstiel School of Marine & Atmospheric Science.

Upgrades to the GFDL/GFDN Operational Hurricane Models Planned for 2015 (A JHT Funded Project) Morris A. Bender, Matthew Morin, and Timothy Marchok (GFDL/NOAA)

Jian-Wen Bao Christopher W. Fairall Sara A. Michelson Laura Bianco NOAA/ESRL/Physical Sciences Division in collaboration with N. Surgi, Y. Kwon and V.

Energy Production, Frictional Dissipation, and Maximum Intensity of a Numerically Simulated Tropical Cyclone 4/ 蘇炯瑞 Wang, Y., and J. Xu, 2010: Energy.

Ligia Bernardet 1*, E. Uhlhorn 2, S. Bao 1* & J. Cione 2 1 NOAA ESRL Global Systems Division, Boulder CO 2 NOAA AOML Hurricane Research Division, Miami.

Air-Sea Exchange in Hurricanes by Peter G. Black & Hurricane Intensity and Eyewall Replacement by Robert A. Houze Jr. Lynsie M. Schwerer Atmospheric Science.

Read. Answer the following in your notebook:  What type of pressure systems produce hurricanes, tornadoes, and winter weather storms?  What things do.

Three Lectures on Tropical Cyclones Kerry Emanuel Massachusetts Institute of Technology Spring School on Fluid Mechanics of Environmental Hazards.

Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP): Where do we stand after 3 years? Bob Gall – HFIP Development Manager Fred Toepfer—HFIP Project manager Frank.

Dynamical MJO Hindcast Experiments: Sensitivity to Initial Conditions and Air-Sea Coupling Yehui Chang, Siegfried Schubert, Max Suarez Global Modeling.

Challenges in the Development of Ocean Coupled, Operational Hurricane Forecast Model at National Weather Service (NWS ) Hyun-Sook Kim Environmental Modeling.

Research on the HWRF Model: Intensification and Uncertainties in Model Physics Research on the HWRF Model: Intensification and Uncertainties in Model Physics.

Atlantic Simplified Track Model Verification 4-year Sample ( ) OFCL shown for comparison Forecast Skill Mean Absolute Error.

An Atmosphere-Ocean coupled model Morris, A., Bender and Isaac Ginis, 2000 : Real-case simulations of hurricane-ocean interaction using a high-resolution.

Ocean Surface heat fluxes

Diurnal Water and Energy Cycles over the Continental United States from three Reanalyses Alex Ruane John Roads Scripps Institution of Oceanography / UCSD.

Cycling Variational Assimilation of Remotely Sensed Observations for Simulations of Hurricane Katrina S.-H. Chen 1 E. Lim 2, W.-C. Lee 3, C. Davis 2, M.

Parameterizations of the Sea-Spray Effects

Verification of model wind structure and rainfall forecasts for 2008 Atlantic storms Tim Marchok NOAA / GFDL Collaborators: Rob Rogers (NOAA / AOML / HRD)

Hurricanes and Global Warming Kerry Emanuel Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Morris Bender, Timothy Marchok (GFDL) Isaac Ginis, Biju Thomas, Il-Ju Moon (URI) Aleksandr Falkovich (EMC/NCEP) 2006 GFDL HURRICANE MODEL UPGRADES.

Improving air-sea flux parameterization in the GFDL/URI Coupled Hurricane-Wave-Ocean Model for Transition to Operations Isaac Ginis Il Ju Moon, Tetsu Hara,

Forecasting Oceanic Cyclones at the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center Joseph M. Sienkiewicz, D. Scott Prosise, and Anthony Crutch NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Ocean Prediction.

1 Current and planned research with data collected during the IFEX/RAINEX missions Robert Rogers NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division.

Andrea Schumacher, CIRA/CSU, Fort Collins, CO Mark DeMaria and John Knaff, NOAA/NESDIS/StAR, Fort Collins, CO NCAR/NOAA/CSU Tropical Cyclone Workshop 16.

Rapid Intensification of Tropical Cyclones by Organized Deep Convection Chanh Q. Kieu, and Da-Lin Zhang Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science University.

HIRLAM coupled to the ocean wave model WAM. Verification and improvements in forecast skill. Morten Ødegaard Køltzow, Øyvind Sætra and Ana Carrasco. The.

Moisture and the Ageostrophic Wind in a Cool-season Coastal Cyclone Matt Vaughan ATM 619.

Evaluating HWRF Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Structure in the North Atlantic Basin Dany Tran 11/2/2011.

2. WRF model configuration and initial conditions  Three sets of initial and lateral boundary conditions for Katrina are used, including the output from.

Shuyi S. Chen, Robert A. Houze Bradley Smull, David Nolan, Wen-Chau Lee Frank Marks, and Robert Rogers Observational and Modeling Study of Hurricane Rainbands.

TC Structure Theta_e Structure Grid 3: Vertical motion surfaces 15:30 UTC 26 August, m/s – red -1 m/s -blue +0.5 m/s – red -0.5 m/s -blue.

Accounting for Variations in TC Size

Enhancement of Wind Stress and Hurricane Waves Simulation

A Simple, Fast Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm for Risk Models

Coupled atmosphere-ocean simulation on hurricane forecast

Statistical Evaluation of the Response of Intensity

Scott A. Braun, 2002: Mon. Wea. Rev.,130,

Presentation transcript:

1 Sensitivity of air-sea exchange coefficients (Cd and Ch) on hurricane size and intensity of HWRF Young Kwon and Robert Tuleya EMC/NCEP/NWS/NOAA HFIP Regional model physics team

2 Motivations 1.Intensity skill of HWRF is not as good as track forecast skill (sometimes worse than statistical models). 2.Part of the poor intensity forecast skill might result from incorrect wind-pressure relationship of HWRF. 3.Subjective verification indicates that HWRF has the tendency of producing a larger storm with time, and this tendency seems to cause the wrong wind- pressure relationship. (wind speed is proportional to dp not p). 4.The goal of this work is to improve the intensity forecast skill of HWRF by correcting storm size and pressure-wind relationship with tuning Cd and Ch.

3

4 Hurricane Katrina ( ) Simulation Result (HWRF and GFDL) P: 939.7hPa W: 58.4 m/s P: 943.5hPa W: 74.1 m/s

5 Motivations 1.Intensity skill of HWRF is not as good as track forecast skill (sometimes worse than statistical models). 2.Part of the poor intensity forecast skill might result from incorrect wind-pressure relationship of HWRF. 3.Subjective verification indicates that HWRF has the tendency of producing a larger storm with time, and this tendency seems to cause the wrong wind- pressure relationship. (wind speed is proportional to dp not p). 4.The goal of this work is to improve the intensity forecast skill of HWRF by correcting storm size and pressure-wind relationship with tuning Cd and Ch.

6 Background Hurricane intensity is proportional to Emanuel (1995) Besides intensity, the size of storm might also depends on surface exchange coefficients (espeially Cd)

7 OCEAN H Low level inflow Upper level outflow Energy gain from sea surface (sensible and latent heat) Ch Energy loss by surface friction Cd

8 Method and Case 1. Change HWRF surface physics code in order to use prescribed Cd and Ch separately over the ocean. 2. Conduct experiments using fixed Ch/various Cd in order to examine the sensitivity of Cd on storm size and intensity forecast skill. 3.Conduct experiment as in 3. except fixing Cd but varying Ch. 4.Case for this study: Hurricane Hanna( UTC) Stays in the Ocean most of time, positive intensity bias

9

10 Preliminary Results

11

12

13 24hr Forecast (MSLP and 850mb wind speed) Inc cdDec cd H209 Lin cd 980mb 38.2m/s 981mb 40.7m/s 980mb 37.8m/s 980mb 34.6m/s

14 72hr Forecast (MSLP and 850mb wind speed) Inc cdDec cd H209 Lin cd 938mb 59.4m/s 956mb 54.7m/s 942mb 65.6m/s

15 Future plan 1.Conduct experiments using more Cd profiles with cycled simulation 2. After investigating the sensitivity of Cd to hurricane, examine the Ch sensitivity to hurricane forecast skill with Cd value fixed 3.Find the optimum combination of Cd/Ch values in order to produce most accurate HWRF’s intensity and track forecast 4.Tune the surface exchange coefficients with inclusion of sea spray parameterization

16 Wind Speed Ch Cd Exchange Coeff. Spray effects on Cd and Ch