Consequences of Regional-Scale Nuclear Conflicts: Understanding and Avoiding Nuclear Catastrophe.

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Presentation transcript:

Consequences of Regional-Scale Nuclear Conflicts: Understanding and Avoiding Nuclear Catastrophe

R.S. Norris, H.M. Kristensen, Bull. Atom. Scientists, 62 (4), 64 (2006). History of Nuclear Warheads

New nuclear states continue to appear

Nuclear Weapons States D. Albright, F. Berkhout, W. Walker, Plutonium and Highly Enriched Uranium, 1996 (Oxford, 1997) R.S. Norris, H.M. Kristensen, Bull. Atom. Scientists, 61 (3), 64 (2005). NWS DeFacto Israel, 116 ( ) Pakistan, 52 (44-62), 1998 South Africa 7, dismantled 1989, 1979? North Korea, 10?, 2007 India, 85 (65-110), 1974, 1998

Fatalities relative to previous conflicts

Fatality Estimates for Nuclear Wars SourceTotal Yield# of WeaponsFatalities Ambio (1982) (world) 5569 Mt14,747950,000,000 Harwell (1984)1400 Mt> ,000,000 (blast) OTA (1979) U.S. 1000s Mt1000s20-160,000,000 OTA (1979) Counterforce ““2-20,000,000 (fallout) Daugherty (1986) Counterforce 1340 Mt ,000,000 (blast) Regional U.S.0.75 Mt504,000,000 Regional India/Pakistan 1.5 Mt10026,000,000 The deaths per kt are 100 times greater for small yield weapons than for large ones.

Fuel loading per person We assume fuel loading is proportional to population

Soot Generation from 50, 15 kt Weapons

Global ozone loss Edge of the Ozone hole

Summary The number of nuclear states is growing 40 countries have enough fissionable materials for weapons. Modern nuclear weapons are small and lightweight. One weapon detonated by a terrorist could cause a million casualties. 50 nuclear explosions of 15 kt yield can cause as many fatalities as once projected for a full scale “counterforce” war between the superpowers. Large amounts of smoke can be generated from a regional war that could trigger global climate change and ozone loss affecting non-combatant countries.

ATMOSPHERIC EFFECTS AND SOCIETAL CONSEQUENCES OF REGIONAL SCALE NUCLEAR CONFLICTS AND ACTS OF INDIVIDUAL NUCLEAR TERRORISM Owen B. Toon, Richard P. Turco, Alan Robock, Charles Bardeen, Luke Oman, Georgiy L. Stenchikov Atmos. Chem. Phys.. 7, , 2007 and Based on the Papers: CLIMATIC CONSEQUENCES OF REGIONAL SCALE NUCLEAR CONFLICTS Alan Robock, Luke Oman, Georgiy L. Stenchikov, Owen B. Toon, Charles Bardeen, Richard P. Turco Atmos. Chem. Phys., 7, , 2007

End of talk the following are spare slides

1-100 weapons weapons>1000 weapons D. Albright, F. Berkhout, W. Walker, Plutonium and Highly Enriched Uranium, 1996 (Oxford, 1997) 40 countries have the fissile material to build at least one bomb

Radiation Fatalities for Various Countries from 50 weapons with yield of 15 kt