Candidate Selection First essay assignment reminder Last time: campaign finance Getting the nomination –Who runs –The nomination process

Essay assignment Write no more than 3 double-spaced pages (exclusive of title/abstract page and references page) on the following: –Are major-party nominees for president different systematically today from the nominees typically produced before the 1930s? Why or why not? Include a one-paragraph (short!) abstract on a separate title page, summarizing your answer –example of abstract is on the website 3-paragraph introduction: hook, thesis, roadmap Due in class Oct. 13

Last time: campaign finance Candidates get money from individuals, PACs, parties, self-contributions, and federal matching funds (primaries) or federal grants (convention and general election) Corporations and labor unions can’t give money directly to candidates, but… –can give through PACS –can bundle individual donations informally –can make independent expenditures on behalf of candidates or spend on “issue advocacy” campaigns via 527 committees (more than 60 days before the election)

The basics Donations: –federal law limits how much an individual may donate per election to candidates, parties and political action committees –no limit on individual donations to 527 committees, although disclosure is required to IRS and/or state agencies (not FEC) Expenditures: –Federal matching funds for primaries; federal grants for general elections, conventions –No limits in each phase if a candidate opts out –No effective limits on independent expenditures, but restrictions on electioneering ads in 60 days prior to general election (must be hard money-financed)

Donations restrictions Hard money: donations to candidates (for primaries) –individuals now limited to $2,000 per candidate per election (primary, general, special) up to $37.5K per 2-year cycle; multi-candidate PACs limited to $5,000 –PACs raise money from individuals, who are capped in totals they can give to parties and PACs –individuals can give up to $25K to national party, $10K to each state/local party, $5K to each PAC; subject to overall $57.5K aggregate limit (including PAC donations; excludes state/local parties); upheld in McConnell v. FEC –corporations and unions cannot give directly, but can cover overhead for PACs; money must be raised from individuals Soft money: spending by parties for “party building” and GOTV; Independent expenditures and issue advocacy spending by third-party groups (527 committees) – donations are unlimited for individuals; some restrictions apply to corporations

spending constraints Matching funds in the primaries: –Individuals’ donations UP to $250 each can be matched if candidate raises at least $5K in each of 20 states at $250 per or less –To retain eligibility once primaries begin, must get 10+ percent of vote in two consecutive primaries or 20 percent in one –Candidates’ personal contribs limited to $50K if accepting fed. dollars (see Perot) –Primary spending limited by state and overall (about $36.5 million this time) –A candidate who secures nomination early may be spent out well before the convention (Dole, 1996: only $1.5 million to spend between April and August) Convention grant ~$15 million General election limit ~$75 million (grant from feds)

Out or In? Federal law limits aggregate primary spending by a candidate to around $37 million if accepting matching funds –by Aug. 20, Bush had raised $338+ million ($264 million before the convention) and spent $222 million (compare to $186 million total in 2000) –Kerry raised $311+ million ($236.5 million before the convention) and spent $198 million. He reimbursed himself for some $6+ million of self-financing during the primaries and has received General election funding limited to ~$75 million

Candidate selection Who becomes a candidate? –In 2004, 5 current/ex-senators, 2 MCs, 1 governor, 1 ex-general, 1 minister/activist and 1 total looney ran for Dem. nomination –Cabinet secretaries were common nominees early in U.S. history –governors, senators, veeps are most common nominees since the Civil War fundraising base? organizational base?

The nomination process If a candidate accepts matching funds, primary spending is limited by state population Different rules for delegate selection by party and state; states vary in voter eligibility rules Dems use proportional representation of candidates with a high threshold (15 pct of vote), selected at 2+ levels (cong dist; at-large) but delegates may “vote their conscience); Repub. thresholds vary by state & they allow winner-take- all Dems use “super-delegates” to represent national party hierarchy; Repubs don’t

Pre-convention campaigning The pre-primary campaign –Organizing, fundraising take time and effort Howard Dean formed an exploratory committee in fall 2002, followed by Kerry. Chicken-egg problem for candidates w/o nat’l rep. Examples: 6 of 12 Repub candidates in 2000 quit before Iowa; Gephardt, others used their PACs to start the fundraising process –State organizations: get out the vote, momentum Primaries and caucuses are very low-turnout elections Primaries and caucuses were front-loaded this year

Proximity voting? spatial theory of elections: what kinds of issue platforms/candidate reputations are favored? –assumes participants are known in advance; candidate goal is to maximize share of vote; usual conclusion is centripetal incentives vis-à-vis the distribution of voter preferences –consequences for the general election? mobilization models of election –both turnout and vote choice are in question for voters; –preference intensity matters –consequences for the general election?