luci2 Urban Simulation Model John R. Ottensmann Center for Urban Policy and the Environment Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis

luci2 Urban Simulation Model What the Model Does  Simulates urban growth for Central Indiana  Forecasts employment change by ZIP code for major industry groups  Separately simulates residential and employment- related development for mile-square grid cells  Allows users to create and compare scenarios reflecting policy choices and assumptions about future development

luci2 Urban Simulation Model Central Indiana 2000 Percent Urban

luci2 Urban Simulation Model Central Indiana Data Sources  LandSAT satellite images for 1985, 1993, and 2000  Land cover classification by Jeff Wilson  Employment by ZIP code for 1995, 2000  Indiana Department of Workforce Development (ES-202) data

luci2 Urban Simulation Model Estimation of Land Use  Reclassification of classified land cover data  Developed set of classifiers based on…  Land cover in vicinity of each pixel  Population and housing units from census  Road network

luci2 Urban Simulation Model Predictive Equations in the Model (9)  Employment change for four industry groups by ZIP code  Probabilities of residential and employment-related development by grid cell  Densities of residential and employment-related development  Journey to work

luci2 Urban Simulation Model Prediction of Development  Prediction of probability of conversion of land to residential and employment-related uses  Based on random utility theory  Estimated aggregated logit models  Dependent variables logits of proportions of land converted  Prediction of densities of development  Estimated using 2000 data

luci2 Urban Simulation Model Predictors of Probability of Residential Development  Accessibility to employment and employment change  Availability of water and sewer  Distances to interstate interchanges and other four-lane highways  Proportion residential in 3x3 neighborhood and it square (logistic growth trend)  Logit proportion converted to residential in preceding period (persistence)  ISTEP scores for school districts

luci2 Urban Simulation Model Accessibility to Employment

luci2 Urban Simulation Model How luci2 Simulates Urban Development  Works in 5-year simulation periods  Simulation driven by exogenous, user- specified population growth for entire region  Predicts employment change by industry group for ZIP codes  Predicts employment-related and residential development

luci2 Urban Simulation Model Prediction of Employment- Related Development  Predicts employment-related land use per employee by ZIP code  Predicts probability of conversion of land to employment-related uses by grid cell  Allocates employment-related development within each ZIP code to grid cells with highest probabilities

luci2 Urban Simulation Model Prediction of Residential Development  Predicts probability of conversion of land to residential use  Predicts population density  Adjusts probabilities to accommodate specified population growth

luci2 Urban Simulation Model Use of Scenarios in luci2  Purpose not to produce “best” forecast but alternative scenarios  Scenarios can reflect policy choices, including restrictions on development on certain lands, utility expansion, densities, urban growth boundaries  Scenarios can reflect alternative assumptions about factors influencing development, including population growth and importance of accessibility to employment

luci2 Urban Simulation Model The Current trends Scenario  luci2 starts with the Current trends scenario  Assumes population growth at the rate from  Uses all model parameters as estimated for the period prior to 2000  Assumes no changes to policies from recent period

luci2 Urban Simulation Model luci2 Simulation Results  Results provided for active and comparison scenarios  Maps show land urban and change and generalized land uses  Tables provide summary results for region for land use and population  Tables provide urban land and employment and their change by county

luci2 Urban Simulation Model Enhanced User Capabilities  Automatic output of more detailed simulation results Capability to add user scenarios  Restrictions on development in specified areas  Restrictions on development  Minimum or maximum densities  Areas to be provided with utility service  New transportation alternatives

luci2 Urban Simulation Model luci2 as a General-Purpose Urban Simulation Model  Models can be implemented for different areas…  With different datasets…  Using regular or irregular simulation zones (including TAZs)…  Using distances or travel times…  For models of varying complexity  Could implement LUCI and LUCI/T in luci2

luci2 Urban Simulation Model LUCI/T Model  Developed for Central Indiana Suburban Transportation & Mobility Study  Starting point original LUCI model  9-county area surrounding Indianapolis  Uses travel times from travel demand model to calculate accessibility

luci2 Urban Simulation Model Comparison of Baseline and Maximum Change Alternatives  Simulations to 2025, 2040  Baseline: existing and planned transportation improvements  Maximum change: 360º circumferential limited-access highway in outer part of area (outer belt)  Use of LUCI/T forecast development for 2025 travel demand model

luci2 Urban Simulation Model Differences between Baseline and Maximum Change Traffic Forecasts

luci2 Urban Simulation Model LUCI/T Baseline and Maximum Change Forecast of Urban Change to 2025 Baseline (Minimum Change)Maximum Change

luci2 Urban Simulation Model LUCI/T Differences between Baseline and Maximum Change Forecasts

luci2 Urban Simulation Model Possible Reasons for Small Differences  In general, the periphery of significant urban development does not extend out to outer belt by 2025 (or 2040)  Households will find locations at urban periphery more accessible to employment than locations near outer belt  Major effect on travel times is to reduce times between locations near outer belt, but those have limited employment

luci2 Urban Simulation Model luci2 Indiana Statewide Model  Simulates residential and employment- related development for 4,579 TAZs in INDOT travel demand model  Simulates local-service employment growth for TAZs  Uses travel times from travel demand model

luci2 Urban Simulation Model Integration of luci2 with INDOT Travel Demand Model  Simulation starts with 2000 travel times from the travel demand model  Simulates employment growth and urban development for 2005  Results used by travel demand model to simulate 2005 travel, travel times  New travel times used by luci2 to simulate growth and development for 2010  Process continues to 2030

luci2 Urban Simulation Model luci2 Indiana Statewide Model