Vanessa Stelzenmüller 1, Janette Lee 2, Eva Garnacho 2 & Stuart Rogers 2 1) vTI - Institute of Sea Fisheries, Hamburg, Germany 2) Centre for Environment, Fisheries & Aquaculture Science (CEFAS), Lowestoft, UK Practical tools, methods and approaches to support marine planning

Outline 1.Why do we need marine planning? 2.Practical tools, methods and approaches to support marine planning Example 1: Mapping human activities and human pressures Example 2: A geospatial modeling framework to quantify the risk of cumulative impacts of human activities Example 3: BN-GIS framework to assess marine planning opinions

Multiple human uses of the sea lead to two types of conflicts: 1) uses and environment and 2) between uses Potential conflicts should be solved by a more strategic ecosystem approach to marine management A tool to implement an ecosystem approach to marine management is marine planning (MP) Marine planning (MP) manages the spatial and temporal distribution of human activities to achieve ecological, economic, and social objectives Practical (spatial explicit) tools and methods are required to support the implementation of MP 1. Introduction – Why do we need marine planning?

Example 1: Mapping of human activities and human pressures 2. Tools to support marine planning – Example 1

How many activities ? Where are the busiest areas? 2. Tools to support marine planning – Example 1 GIS tool to count the number of activities

2. Tools to support marine planning – Example 1 From human activities to human pressures - how to convert fishing activity with physical impact on the seabed in fishing pressure maps ? Time series of VMS data ( ) of UK and non-UK fishing vessels ≥ 15 m using beam trawls, scallop dredges and otter trawls Conversion of VMS pings to fishing pressure layers More details on the method in Eastwood et al. (2007), Mills et al. (2007), and Stelzenmüller et al. (2008)

2. Tools to support marine planning – Example 1 Annual aggregated fishing pressure as proportion of cell (2 x 2 nm) fished Stelzenmüller et al. (2008). ICES Journal of Marine Science, 65: 1081–1091.

2. Tools to support marine planning – Example 1 Average proportion of UK marine landscapes fished Stelzenmüller et al. (2008). ICES Journal of Marine Science, 65: 1081–1091.

Example 2: A geospatial modelling framework to quantify the risk of cumulative impacts Ecosystem approach to marine management such as marine planning (MP) needs to consider a range of human activities Human activities vary in their intensities, footprints and impacts on the marine environment MP requires an evaluation of the risk of cumulative and interactive effects of numerous human activities 2. Tools to support marine planning – Example 2

Human activities exert pressures Human activity 1 Human activity 2 Human activity 3 Human activity 4 Pressure A Pressure B 2. Tools to support marine planning – Example 2

Ecosystem components are sensitive to different pressures Impact = Pressure * Sensitivity Cumulative impacts = combined impacts 2. Tools to support marine planning – Example 2

Mapping of human pressures A Activity 1: footprint and intensity Fuzzyfication of pressure layers Selection of human activities Sensitivity scores of ecosystem components … Activity 2: footprint and intensity Activity 3: footprint and intensity Mapping of human pressures B … CI scenario 1 Mapping ecosystem components Scenario evaluation Impact maps GIS – Multi-criteria-analysis CI scenario 2 CI scenario 3 CI scenario 4 Stelzenmüller et al (2010). MEPS 398: 19– Tools to support marine planning – Example 2

Selection of human activities Fishing (bottom trawling) Wind farm (licence areas and application area) Oil and gas (well heads and platforms) Cables Pipelines Aggregates (licence area and application area) Disposal Other constraining activities (e.g. wrecks, obstructions) Human uses geodata - available for UK&W waters 2. Tools to support marine planning – Example 2

Habitat map for sensitivity scores ……… Sensitivity scores of ecosystem components Taken from DEFRA (2007) Cost impact of marine biodiversity policies on business – the marine bill, London. Conner et al (2006) 2. Tools to support marine planning – Example 2

Sensitivity Score ABR Impact ABR Impact maps Stelzenmüller et al (2008). ICES Journal of Marine Science, 65: Tools to support marine planning – Example 2

GIS Multi-criteria-analysis (GIS - MCA) Pressure ranked by likelihood of recovery Scenario 1: Equal weights Scenario 2: Linear weights Scenario 3: Logistic weights Scenario 4: Simulated stakeholder consultation 2. Tools to support marine planning – Example 2

Scenario 1: Equal weights Scenario 3: Logistic weights 2. Tools to support marine planning – Example 2

Testing the sensitivity of predicted cumulative impacts by randomising pressure ranking 2. Tools to support marine planning – Example 2 Scenario evaluation

Conclusions Model outputs depend on input data quality Uncertainty is partly captured by fuzzyfication of pressure layers - uncertainty remains for sensitivity measures Risk assessment framework highlights both range of possible modelled scenarios and range of uncertainty For decision making in the case of remaining uncertainty models with less strong assumptions should be used 2. Tools to support marine planning – Example 2

Example 3: Bayesian Belief networks (BN)-GIS framework to assess marine planning options Visualisation of relationships between sensitive marine landscapes, human activities, cumulative pressures and landscape vulnerability Spatial assessment of uncertainty of marine planning options Baseline scenario – Current status on UK continental shelf Scenario 1 – What are the mitigation measures under a given marine planning objective ? Scenario 2 – How does the vulnerability state change after the implementation of a spatial management measure? 2. Tools to support marine planning – Example 3

CP EC = Σ 1-N Intensity HA1 +.. Intensity HAN Conner et al (2006) 2. Tools to support marine planning – Example 3

Sensitivity EC = Σ 1-N Sensitivity HA1 +..Sensitivity HAN Vulnerability EC = CP EC * Sensitivity EC 2. Tools to support marine planning – Example 3

BBNs represent probabilistic correlative and causal relationships BBNs specify joint and conditional relationships, and express uncertainty Conditional probability tables are populated from GIS data GIS: Quantitative, qualitative, and categorical data BN 2. Tools to support marine planning – Example 3 Stelzenmüller et al (submitted). Marine Pollution Bulletin.

Probabilities of the parent nodes reflected the proportion of grid cells in the respective state or category 2. Tools to support marine planning – Example 3 Baseline scenario UKCS

Scenario 1: What are the necessary management measures to achieve a planning objective on cumulative pressure ? 2. Tools to support marine planning – Example 3

Human activities related to the oil and gas industry and demersal fishing need to be regulated most Oil and gas infrastructure Aggregate extraction Fishing pressure State %+ 1.2 %- 5 % State 2+ 6 %- 0.3 % % State %- 0.5 %- 5 % State %- 0.4 %- 2.5 % Scenario 1 outcomes in relation to baseline scenario (current state): 2. Tools to support marine planning – Example 3

Scenario 2: How does the vulnerability state change in the planning area after the relocation of fishing pressure ? 2. Tools to support marine planning – Example 3

Before the implementation: Northern offshore area showed a reduced probability of being in vulnerability state 1 and 2 Southward shift of increased vulnerability, but “pristine” areas experienced increase in fishing pressure and showed increased vulnerability After the implementation: 2. Tools to support marine planning – Example 3

Northern offshore area showed a reduced probability of being in vulnerability state 3 and 4 Overall decrease of surface area being in vulnerability state 4 Before the implementation:After the implementation: 2. Tools to support marine planning – Example 3

is constrained by the available geodata, and in this case does not reflect a comprehensive assessment of vulnerability can be applied at any spatial scale and adapted to any relationships when data becomes available can be used to address a wide range of questions and decisions, with their potential consequences allowed to examine the spatial pattern of uncertainty related to planning targets Our BN-GIS framework…. 2. Tools to support marine planning – Example 3

Future work Future work requires …. the inclusion of more ecosystem components the consideration of socio-economic planning objectives to promote an integrated approach for the development of marine plans the development of planning tools that consider environmental change

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