Grocery Wars The Fight for Sales Howard Gerelick, Safeway Inc. November 12, th Annual Rocky Mountain Commercial Real Estate Expo - DU Fall Forecast
Past Changes in the competitive battlefield Changes in store size & additional departments Present Reviewing the competitive battlefield Who’s winning the war? Future Who will win? How the winners will change the way we shop How this will impact shopping center development
Changes In The Competitive Battlefield Denver SMSA Population # Store’s KS, Swy, ALB # People per Store ,675, , ,027, , ,291, ,100
Changes In The Competitive Battlefield % Change - Population 1989 to % 2000 to % 1989 to % % Change - # Stores 19% 42%
Changes In Store Count KSSWYALBTOTAL % Change %30%52%42%
Changes in Size KSSWYALB Pre ,000 SF 35,000 SF 30,000 SF ,000 SF 55,000 SF 50,000 SF Post , ,000 SF 58,000 SF 55,000 SF
Specialty Departments FloralBanksFuel Natural Foods Service Meats & Seafood Starbucks Photo Centers Other Changes
Changes In Market Share KSSWYALBTOTAL %22.2%13.7%83.2% %27.4%13.2%85.1% %23.6%11.7%78.5% Net Change (4.1%)1.4%(2.0%)(4.7%) % Change (8.7%)6.3%(14.6%)(5.6%)
National Trends Market Share PriceOperator ConventionalSupermarketsSpecialtyStores 21%76%3% %67%4% %55%6% 2009 E
Market Share Comparison Denver SMSA King Soopers Safeway Albertson’s Cub Foods Wal-Mart Wild Oats %47.2%43.2% 22.2%24.7%23.6% 13.7%13.2%11.7% 8.5%6.8%0.0% 0.0%1.5%8.8% 0.0%1.7%1.8%
Summary Population Growth 37% Store Growth 42% Market Share Total (5.6%) King Soopers Market Share (8.7%) King Soopers Store Count 47% Safeway Market Share 6.3% Safeway Store Count 30% Albertson’s Market Share (14.6%) Albertson’s Store Count 52%
Future Conventional Supermarkets will experiment with alternative formats More emphasis on remodels than new stores Continued expansion of Super Wal-Mart, Super Target and Specialty Food Stores Fewer Grocery Stores will be built
Grocery Wars: The Fight for Sales Howard Gerelick, Safeway Inc. November 12, th Annual Rocky Mountain Commercial Real Estate Expo - DU Fall Forecast