Climate Change and the Tart Cherry Industry in the Great Lakes Region: Introducing the Pileus Project: 18 January 2005

What is the Pileus Project?

Components of the Pileus Project Corn & Wheat Quality Compre- hensive Golf Skiing Tart Cherry Industry TOURISM AGRICULTURE Climate

Pileus Project Players MSU Core Team Dr. Jeffrey Andresen Dr. Roy Black Tracy Beedy Dr. Costanza Zavalloni Agriculture Galina Guentchev Krerk Piromsopa Dr. Julie Winkler Dr. Jeffrey Andresen Climate Lori Martin Charles Shih Jeonghee Noh Dr. Don Holecek Dr. Sarah Nicholls Tourism Administration/Coordination/Communications Dr. Peter Sousounis Jeanne Bisanz

Overall Project Objectives (Agriculture) Cultivate research partnerships with tart industry stakeholders to establish research goals, identify specific needs, and provide expertise. Create physically-based models to quantify past and projected impacts of climate and climate variability on the tart cherry industry. Develop decision-support tools for weather and climate- related risk management for tart cherry production, grain quality & the tourism/recreation industry.

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Tree phenology? Tart cherry production? Economic cost of production? Net returns over time? The need for insurance? How might past and potential future climates impact…..

Why study climate variability and tart cherries ? 1.Michigan is the primary producer of tart cherries in the U.S. and most parts of the value chain are in the state. 2.This provides a unique opportunity to link expertise in tart cherry production, economics, and climate science. 2.Tart cherries are extremely vulnerable to temperature extremes 3.The impact of climate on the tart cherry industry has not been well understood and has not been investigated in an industry-wide context. 4.Few previous studies of climate change and agriculture have considered ‘indirect’ impacts such as insect or disease pressure.

Stakeholder are KEY Cherry Marketing Institute Northwest Horticulture Research Station Cherry Bay, Inc. National Agriculture Statistics Service Tart Cherry Industry Task Force Individual cherry growers

Climate Observations or Scenarios Ecological or Activity (e.g. fruit tree or tourism/ recreation) Model Economic Model(s) Risk/ Decision Making /Policy Framework Socioeconomic Scenarios Land use change scenarios

Solar radiation Vapor pressure Phenology ET, PET Soil water Disease pressure Yield Winter mortality LAI Temperature Precipitation

Simulated vs. Observed Reproductive Phenology Southwest Lower MI, Stage 4 - Tight Cluster 6 - First White 7 - First Bloom 8 - Bloom 9 - Petal Fall Side Green Weather data: Eau Claire, MI Location of observations: SWMREC and Berrien County Number of observations Mean difference (days) Mean absolute difference (days)

Simulated historical day of the year of Stage 2 ‘Side Green’ (red line = 9 year moving average)

Bud Stages and Damage Temperatures Source pictures: Mark Longtroth and Dennis and Howell Side greenTight cluster  C  C  C  C Green tip Threshold temperatures from Dennis and Howell, 1974 Open cluster

Projected Climate of the Great Lakes Region Mean air temperatures are projected to increase 1-3  C by the end of this century. Projected trends in precipitation are unclear, with some climate simulations suggesting a wetter climate and others a drier climate. Future changes in the frequency and magnitude of weather extremes, a key factor for cherry production, remain unknown.

Simulated fraction of viable buds in the period

Projected Average Annual Returns per Acre Southwest Lower MI ( ) per Acre

Development of simple crop models that can be used to evaluate the impact of future climate trends and variability on tart cherry production Providing a better understanding of historical climate trends, variability, and their past impacts on the tart cherry industry Explicit incorporation of climate into a framework that may assist in economic decision-making Potential benefits of the Pileus Project

Questions?