CCG 1 MoSeS Introduction and Progress Report Andy Turner

All Hands 2006 NCeSS Booth Presentation 2 Outline What is MoSeS What are we looking to do How far have we got What next

All Hands 2006 NCeSS Booth Presentation 3 What is MoSeS Modelling and Simulation for e-Social Science NCeSS Node Mark Birkin (Geography) Haibo Chen (Transport) Martin Clarke (Geography) Justin Keen (Health) Jie Xu (Computing) Phil Rees (Geography) Paul Townend (Computing) Andy Turner (Geography) Belinda Wu (Geography)

All Hands 2006 NCeSS Booth Presentation 4 Develop means of generating, storing and disseminating urban and regional simulations based on national level models Use simulations tools to support research and policy applications What if? Develop demonstrator applications for Health Service Planning Business Pensions Property prices Transport Vision

All Hands 2006 NCeSS Booth Presentation 5 Model and simulate the evolution of the UK human population Contemporary planning focus Concentrate on the period Operating at individual and household level Aggregating to community and larger regions Open source Grid Technology Window into modelling everything Complexity added over time Develop a dynamic geographic agent based micro-simulation of the UK SimCity™ for real

All Hands 2006 NCeSS Booth Presentation 6 Develop an Agent Based Model Agents to represent Individual people Family, household and social networks Reasonably complex and evolutionary characteristics and behaviour Households Communities Business Education Schools Colleges

All Hands 2006 NCeSS Booth Presentation 7 Designing and developing standards compliant tools in an open way Developing generic and modular solutions Complex systems modelling Visualisation Collaboration Developing applications and use cases Data security and disclosure risk Develop a portal for users and developers Key Challenges

All Hands 2006 NCeSS Booth Presentation 8 There are approximately 60 million people in the UK 20 million households and communal establishments 200,000 UK Population 2001 Census Output Areas Data Census micro-data UK 3% Individual SAR 1% Household SAR for England and Wales Census Area Statistics Demographic Modelling

All Hands 2006 NCeSS Booth Presentation 9 Initialisation (2001) Sets of SARs used to populate Households and Communal Establishments Genetic Algorithm Constraints and optimisations Large number of potential solutions Each Census Area or aggregation can be concurrently processed Dynamic Simulation ( ) Annual basis Birth, Death and Migration

All Hands 2006 NCeSS Booth Presentation 10 Progress Population initialisation Datasets for demographic simulation produced for Leeds and UK MSOA vs OA HSAR vs ISAR for household population Sampling without replacement Dynamic simulation model Birth and death modules written Difficulties with migration module Portal development set up