Climate Change and the Caribbean the Case and the Responses Ian C King Project Officer Adapting to Climate Change in the Caribbean (ACCC) Project tel. (246)

IDSD Presentation - Oct '032 Overview Is GCC really happening Why GCC is an issue for the Caribbean What have we been doing Challenges for the future – particularly for National Meteorological and Hydrological Services

IDSD Presentation - Oct '033 The Evidence Prof. G. O. P. Obasi, WMO Secretary-General at 8 th UNFCCC COP Recalled that the WSSD held in South Africa called for GHG stabilisation to prevent dangerous anthropogenic influence and allow ecosystems to adapt naturally and so ensure sustainable development

IDSD Presentation - Oct '034 The Evidence - GHGs GHG Atmospheric concentrations –By 1 st COP in ppmv Increase of 28% since industrialization –By end ppmv –Annual growth rates fluctuates from 0.5 ppmv/year to 3.5 ppmv/year

IDSD Presentation - Oct '035

6 The Evidence – Temperatures & SLR 1990s warmest decade on record –1998 the warmest year –2001 the second Global average surface temperature –Increase by 0.6 o C since the 1860’s –Most of warming in the 20 th Century especially 1920 – 1945 Post 1976 –IPCC suggest that most of the warming in last 30 – 50 years due to anthropogenic sources –Reduction in snow and ice cover – especially in non-polar mountain glaciers Rise in average sea-level of 18 – 20 cm

IDSD Presentation - Oct '037 Global Temperature Variation 1860 – 2000 IPCC TAR

IDSD Presentation - Oct '038 Global Temperature Variation over 1000 years (Northern hemisphere) - IPCC TAR

IDSD Presentation - Oct '039 Variations of the Earth’s Surface Temperature 1000 to 2100

IDSD Presentation - Oct '0310

IDSD Presentation - Oct '0311 Green = increasing, Brown = decreasing Annual Precipitation (1901 – 1995)

IDSD Presentation - Oct '0312 Fig. 2. Annual mean sea level at Key West from : insert shows the bootstrap estimate of the linear trend and its variability. The dashed line is the least squares linear trend and the solid lines are the 99% CI for the trend. Annual Mean Sea Level in Key West

IDSD Presentation - Oct '0313 Change in Annual Precipitation for the 2050’s

IDSD Presentation - Oct '0314 Red = warming, Blue = cooling Temperature Trends (1901 – 1996)

IDSD Presentation - Oct '0315 Figure SPM-10a: Atmospheric CO 2 concentration from year 1000 to year 2000 from ice core data and from direct atmospheric measurements over the past few decades. Projections of CO 2 concentrations for the period 2000 to 2100 are based on the six illustrative SRES scenarios and IS92a (for comparison with the SAR). Q9 Figure 9-1a Past and Future CO 2 Atmospheric Concentrations

IDSD Presentation - Oct '0316 The Evidence – Weather Unprecedented weather extremes such as tropical cyclones, severe floods & droughts –Recently major storm events & floods in Europe, Asia, Africa and South America Mozambique, 2000 storm events Elyne & Gloria est. direct & in-direct economic cost of 11.6% of GNP –Record breaking droughts in middle Eastern countries, Brazil, Horn of Africa & central Asia to N China China 2001 drought 2 nd most severe since 1949 (<1978) 13 million people in Southern Africa affected by severe drought in 2002

IDSD Presentation - Oct '0317 IPCC Assessments of Extreme Events with Climate Change (TAR Summary for Policy Makers (SPM) – Working Group II, 2001) Very likely (90%)Likely (66-90%)Moderately likely (33- 66%) (or lack of agreement between models) More hot days & heat waves Reduced frost days & cold waves More intense precipitation events over many areas Increased summer drying over most mid-latitude continental interiors Increase in tropical cyclone peak wind intensities mean and peak precipitation intensities (over some areas) Intensified floods and droughts associated El Nino events in many different regions Increased Asian summer monsoon precipitation variability Increased intensity of mid- latitude storms (especially in winter)

IDSD Presentation - Oct '0318 The Evidence – ENSO Warm ENSO episodes –consistently leads to regional variabilities in precipitation & temperature over tropics, sub-tropics & some mid-latitudes –More frequent, persistent and intense since the mid-1970’s compared to previous 100 years Note 1997/1998 El Nino event was very strong affecting 110 million people and estimated to cost US $96 billion in damage Current El Nino is predicted to be weak –IPCC The Scientific Basis, SPM "...global warming is likely to lead to greater extremes of drying and heavy rainfall.....that occur with El Nino events in many regions".

IDSD Presentation - Oct '0319 IPCC Third Assessment Report IPCC TAR in 2001 concluded –“there is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the past 50 years is attributable to human activities.”

IDSD Presentation - Oct '0320 Climate Change: A Priority for the Caribbean World’s industrial powers (OECD) account for 20% world’s population, but are responsible for >50 % of global emissions – the cause of global warming and resultant climate change. Developing countries emit < 25 % of total GHG emissions. Small Island States emit < 1% of global emissions. SIDS have contributed little to the problem but are among the most vulnerable groups to GCC, and have low adaptive capacity. –Hence adaptation rather than mitigation is most appropriate course

IDSD Presentation - Oct '0321 Climate Change: A Priority for the Caribbean Expected climate change impacts for region includeExpected climate change impacts for region include: –Sea level rise Saline intrusion into freshwater aquifers Coastal flooding and erosion –Increased temperatures Heat stress Coral bleaching Biodiversity loss Increased emergence of vector borne diseases

IDSD Presentation - Oct '0322 Climate Change: A Priority for the Caribbean –Changes in rainfall patterns Droughts or floods Decreased fresh water availability –Increased intensity of storm activity Direct damage of infrastructure Loss of lives

IDSD Presentation - Oct '0323 Possible Climate Change Impacts on Tourism Direct damage to tourism plant and natural resources –Coral reefs –Beaches Loss of attractiveness of the region as a destination –Impacts on health – emergence of dengue, malaria, etc. –Reduced dive tourism if coral reefs are damaged –Milder Winters in the North Loss of employment in the industry Increased insurance costs for properties in vulnerable areas

IDSD Presentation - Oct '0324 Significance of Estimated Changes Economists Erik Haites (IPCC leader)and Dennis Pantin (UWI St. Augustine) asked by World Bank to estimate damages that may arise to CARICOM countries based on IPCC TAR projections Temperature, rainfall, SLR, tropical storms and hurricanes

IDSD Presentation - Oct '0325 Economic Impact of Climate Change in the Caribbean (1999 US$ million) (components may not sum to the total due to rounding)

IDSD Presentation - Oct '0326 Economic Impact of Climate Change in the Caribbean (1999 US$ million) (components may not sum to the total due to rounding)

IDSD Presentation - Oct '0327 Economic Impact of Climate Change in the Caribbean (1999 US$ million) (components may not sum to the total due to rounding)

IDSD Presentation - Oct '0328 Economic Impact of Climate Change in the Caribbean (1999 US$ million) (components may not sum to the total due to rounding)

IDSD Presentation - Oct '0329 Summary of Economists Estimates Low scenario to 2050 –$1.5 billion in total damages –Ranging from 3.5% to 16% GDP High Scenario US $9 billion per year 24% to 103% of GDP

IDSD Presentation - Oct '0330 Increased Cases Due to Climate Change and Associated Costs for Selected Diseases, Cuba

IDSD Presentation - Oct '0331 Climate Change: A Priority for the Caribbean SIDS meeting, 1994 –BPOA Climate change identified as priority area of concern, requiring “urgent action” CPACC Project formulated after a series of national and regional consultations

IDSD Presentation - Oct '0332 The Caribbean Planning for Adaptation to Global Climate Change (CPACC) Project The GEF-funded Project ( ) was executed by the Organization of American States in partnership with the University of the West Indies for Environment and Development, (UWICED) for the World Bank as the GEF Implementing Agency. The Project’s overall objective was to support Caribbean countries in preparing to cope with the adverse effects of GCC, particularly sea-level rise in coastal areas, through vulnerability assessment, adaptation planning and related capacity building.

IDSD Presentation - Oct '0333 CPACC Project Components 1.Design and Establishment of Sea Level/Climate Monitoring Network 2.Establishment of Databases and Information Systems 3.Inventory of Coastal Resources and Use 4.Formulation of a Policy Framework for Integrated Adaptation Planning and Management 5.Coral Reef Monitoring for Climate Change 6.Coastal Vulnerability and Risk Assessment 7.Economic Valuation of Coastal and Marine Resources 8.Formulation of Economic/Regulatory Proposals 9.Green House Gas inventory

IDSD Presentation - Oct '0334 Accomplishments Nationally, all countries have NFP’s and NICU’s. –In some countries, National committees have been established to address climate change. Establishment of a sea level and climate monitoring system that contributes to regional and global assessment of the issues Improved access and availability of data Increased appreciation of climate change issues at the policy-making level and technical support to better define the regional position at the conventions

IDSD Presentation - Oct '0335 Accomplishments Meeting country needs for expanded vulnerability assessment, economic evaluation techniques, developing economic instruments and methodology for coral reef monitoring Created a network for regional harmonization Development of National Climate Change Adaptation policies and action plans

IDSD Presentation - Oct '0336 After CPACC Adapting to Climate Change in the Caribbean (ACCC) – Oct – Sept Mainstreaming Adaptation to Climate Change (MACC) – Jan Dec Caribbean Community Climate change Centre (CCCCC) – Feb

IDSD Presentation - Oct '0337 Adapting to Climate Change in the Caribbean (ACCC) Project $ Cdn. 3.4 million CCCDF grant from the Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA) to further capacity building efforts initiated under CPACC. Includes: –Development of business plan for Climate Change Centre –Support for RPIU until CCCCC established and operational –Development of a M.Sc. Programme in Climate Change at U.W.I. –Developing sectoral studies on climate change impacts and adaptive responses

IDSD Presentation - Oct '0338 Project 1: Detailed Project Design and Business Plan for Regional Climate Change Centre Project 2: Public Education and Outreach (PEO) Project 3: Integrating Climate Change into a Physical Planning Process using a Risk Management Approach Project 4: Strengthening Technical Capacity – through CIMH and National institutes, supporting Masters level course at UWI, development of region-specific climate change scenarios and liaison with other SIDS (in Caribbean and Pacific) ACCC Projects

IDSD Presentation - Oct '0339 ACCC Projects Project 5: Integrating Adaptation Planning in Environmental Assessments for National and Regional Development Projects Project 6: Implementation Strategies for Adaptation in the Water Sector Project 7: Formulation of Adaptation Strategies to Protect Human Health Project 8: Adaptation Strategies for Agriculture and Food Project 9: Fostering Collaboration/Cooperation with non-CARICOM Countries

IDSD Presentation - Oct '0340 ACCC Progress to Date Developing risk management approach to address climate change impacts in the public and private sectors –Following several workshops and training seminars to discuss approach –Adapted the Canadian RM standard and terminology but adjusted to suit the region as well as utilising some aspects of the South pacific CHARM (Comprehensive Hazard and Risk management) methodology

IDSD Presentation - Oct '0341 ACCC Progress to Date Regional Public Education and Outreach (PEO) Strategy drafted after extensive consultation Regional Capacity Development –Commencement of the CC Masters –Supporting and enhancing climate modeling capability at UWI –CIMH support Commenced interaction with Pacific Collaboration with the CDB DMFC on the incorporation of natural hazards consideration into the EIA process

IDSD Presentation - Oct '0342 Mainstreaming Adaptation to Climate Change (MACC) PDF B grant to assist in defining MACC project components –Support national and regional consultations Sectoral and cross sectoral –Prepare full project proposal/document MACC – in final phase MACC finally approved by World Bank in April ’03 and should commence in late 2003 after some delay – some elements commenced already under the ACCC

IDSD Presentation - Oct '0343 MACC (a) Mainstreaming adaptation to climate change in national development planning and public and private investment decisions. –A key activity of the project will be the work with key sectors (such as water supply, agriculture, forestry, land use planning) to incorporate climate change impact and risk assessment in their ongoing programs and long- term planning.

IDSD Presentation - Oct '0344 MACC (b) Assisting Institutional and Technical Support mechanisms: –(i) Assisting participating countries with Stage II adaptation under the UNFCCC: –(ii) Support and coordination for the preparation of the 2 nd National Communications –(iii) Mainstreaming through a Permanent Institutional Mechanism to Address GCC in the Caribbean

IDSD Presentation - Oct '0345 MACC (c) Expand GCC monitoring and impact assessment as a basis for national and regional level decision making on adaptation. The following activities will be supported: –strengthening monitoring network wider geographical coverage; integration of global and Caribbean networks increased scope of measurements and data collection –downscaling global models –modeling under climate change scenarios

IDSD Presentation - Oct '0346 MACC (d)Cross-regional Dissemination and Replication –Under this component, the project will undertake activities to facilitate replication by disseminating results and lessons learned to other regions. Specifically, the project will support efforts aimed at disseminating mainstreaming activities in the Caribbean, to Pacific Island Nations and other low lying areas.

IDSD Presentation - Oct '0347 Climate Change Centre First Ministerial Meeting to consider the progress in the implementation of the BPOA mandated that a mechanism be in place to continue climate change work in the region after the conclusion of the CPACC Project On the recommendation of the Eighth Meeting of the Council for Trade and Economic Development (COTED) The initiative to establish a Regional Climate Change Centre was endorsed by the CARICOM Heads of Government at their “Twenty-First Meeting of the Conference of Heads of Government of the Caribbean Community”, 2-5 July, 2000 Established as a legal entity at the CARICOM Heads of Government Intersessional Meeting, February, Set to commence following the start of the MACC project but building on that activity and the CPACC Project

IDSD Presentation - Oct '0348 The Objectives of the Centre Promoting protection of the earth’s climate system Enhancing regional institutional capabilities for the co-ordination of national responses to the adverse effects of climate change Providing comprehensive policy and technical support in the area of climate change and related issues and spearheading regional initiatives in those areas Performing the role of executing agency for regional environmental projects relating to climate change Promoting education and public awareness on climate change issues Facilitating regional consensus for negotiations related to the UNFCCC