Systems Thinking and Decision Making Models Mediated Modeling 1/30/07

To accomplish Introduction Workshop guidelines Goal STELLA software Pre-model Questions model should address Conceptual model building Students ask clarifying questions Process requests/suggestions from participants 7 PM Closing

Example Goal To develop viable recommendations toward the prevention of shoreline degradation in VT. Recommendations can be developed in the form of information requirements or policy suggestions.

esult: Consensus on both problems/goals and process - leading to effective and implementable policies Degree of Consensus among Stakeholders

Listening cycle Source: Conklin, 2006

Linear thinking Example?

Systems Thinking Example?

Events Patterns Structure What When, where How, why

Levels of Understanding ActionTime Orientation Way of Perceiving EVENTSReactPresentWitness PATTERNSAdaptMeasure or track events STRUCTURECreate Change FutureCausal loops diagrams & SD tools

Questions you would ask EVENTSWhat is the fastest way to react to this event now? PATTERNSWhat kinds of trends or patterns of events seem to be recurring? STRUCTUREWhat structures are in place that are causing these patterns?

Example of “questions the model aims to address”: 1.How is shoreline degradation/protection monitored and measured? 2.What are the most important human activities causing shoreline degradation? 3.How do the long-term consequences present themselves ecologically and economically over time? How are they linked? 4.Based on the system discussed and modeled, what are viable recommendations to achieve a mutually desired outcome?