LANDIS-II Workshop April 1, 2006

LANDIS-II Workshop Agenda 1.Introduction to LANDIS-II presentation 2.Tour of the Web Site 3.Downloading new extensions 4.Running the model 5.Input validation 6.Running multiple scenarios 7.Viewing output 8.Future Modifications

Forest Landscape Simulation Models Simulate change through time due to the interactions between succession and external drivers (e.g., disturbances or climate change) across a spatially extensive ecosystem. Are used in conjunction with Scenarios  configurations of alternate potential future conditions  examine management consequences  understand process interactions  a suite of discrete stories of forest change Forest Landscape Simulation Models

Why Use Forest Landscape Models? Provide projections of long-term (100 – 200 yrs) and broad-scale forest change. Allows experimentation and comparisons between scenarios. Tools for synthesizing data and models of smaller-scale processes. Multi-disciplinary: incorporate concepts and theories from landscape, ecosystem, and community ecology.

Madison, Wisconsin  ~1.5 million ha  aspen-pines- northern hardwoods  fragmented LANDIS-II Example: Interactions among climate change, fragmentation, and harvesting in northern Wisconsin.

LANDIS-II Example: Effects of insects on carbon storage and succession (NASA) FORESTED LANDSCAPE SPRUCE BUDWORM GYPSY MOTH SPECIES ESTABLISHMENT LIVING BIOMASS DEAD BIOMASS NPP Mortality

LANDIS-II Example: Effects of fire and nitrogen cycling in New Jersey Pine Barrens.

LANDIS-II Example: Climate change, harvesting options, and conservation implications in northern Minnesota (TNC).

LANDIS-II Introduction

LANDIS-II Features Stochastic  disturbance events dependent upon probabilities  regeneration also probabilistic Spatially Dynamic  emphasis is on contagious processes: dependent upon neighborhoods and landscape configuration

LANDIS-II Features Optimized for Large Landscapes  spatially explicit and dynamic  results can be viewed in a GIS Spatial and Temporal Flexibility  variable time steps for each process  variable spatial resolution and extent

LANDIS-II: Forest Landscape Simulator FORESTED LANDSCAPE WINDTHROW FIRE HARVESTING INSECTS / DISEASE DISPERSAL SPECIES ESTABLISHMENT AGEING & GROWTH (optional) CLIMATE AGE-RELATED MORTALITY

LANDIS-II Introduction LANDIS simulates succession, seed dispersal, harvesting, and other natural disturbances. Landscape Sites Ecoregions Homogeneous soils and climate Dynamic community composition

LANDIS-II Introduction Question: How to represent trees? Problem: At broad scales, we cannot represent individual trees. Solution: Aggregate individuals into SPECIES and AGE cohorts. Example: Actual site10 year species and age cohorts Sugar maple ages:Sugar maple cohorts: 2,3,16,89, , 11-20, 81-90, Hemlock ages:Hemlock cohorts: 6,8,24,56, , 21-30, 51-60,

LANDIS-II Introduction Why Species and Age? LANDIS is founded on the principle of vital attributes (Noble and Slatyer 1980). Vital attributes are the unique life history characteristics of each species. Vital attributes define how a species will respond to disturbance and competition. longevity seed production age Examples include: shade tolerance, longevity, fire tolerance, seed production age, seed dispersal distances, etc.

LANDIS-II Introduction Species and Age Cohorts: 1.Tree species cohorts defined by age 2.Cohort age ranges are flexible 3.Multiple cohorts at each site, multiple cohorts for each species. Species Age range An abstract cohort Acer rubrum years old An example cohort

LANDIS-II Introduction Species and Age Cohorts: 1.Can be extended to include quantitative data 2.Example: Cohorts with aboveground biomass. Species Age range Biomass An abstract cohort Acer rubrum years old 5 Mg ha -1 An example cohort

LANDIS-II Introduction LANDIS-II has a Core and many extensions. Extensions contain the ecological processes - succession and disturbances. There can be many different extensions for each process - different questions, different extensions. Extensions are designed to be shared and modified. Ours will be open source. Many disturbance types possible.

Landscape Site Data Ecoregion Data Species Cohorts Other site data: - Time since fire - Leaf litter & fine woody debris -Coarse woody debris - Disturbance regimes - Growth, decomposition, establishment Species Cohorts: Minimally Includes: Species ID + Age Can Include: Aboveground Live Biomass, Density, Diameter, etc. LANDIS-II Core ` Species Data Life History or Physiological Data: - Shade Tolerance - Fire Tolerance - Maturity Age - Longevity spp2 5 … 0.5 … sppN x … z

Disturbance Extensions Each disturbance can also define and have its own data: Unique Set of Ecoregions Additional Species Data Additional Site Data LANDIS-II Extensions Succession Extensions Defines what type of cohort will be used. Determines how site-level light is calculated. Manages reproduction. Output Extensions Summarizes data into useful outputs. Does not alter the landscape or sites in any way.

LANDIS-II Flexible Architecture Example Scenario of User Interactions

LANDIS-II Core and Extensions Interactions Succession Extension Fire Extension Wind Extension The User downloads extensions (‘plug-ins’) from the LANDIS-II web site Main Module Landscape Module Site Landscape Shared Data Species Module Ecoregion Module LANDIS-IICore Other Modules User Computer

LANDIS-II Core and Extensions Interactions Succession Extension Fire Extension Wind Extension The User indicates which extensions to use Each extension has its own time step, determined by the User. Main Module Landscape Module Site Landscape Shared Data Species Module Ecoregion Module LANDIS-IICore Other Modules

Main Module Landscape Module Site Landscape Shared Data Species Module Ecoregion Module LANDIS-IICore Other Modules Succession Extension Fire Extension These data are shared with other extensions. Examples include: time since last fire, dead biomass, etc. Each extension defines its own site variables. Wind Extension

Main Module Landscape Module Site Landscape Shared Data Species Module Ecoregion Module LANDIS-IICore Other Modules LANDIS-II Core and Extensions Interactions Succession Extension Fire Extension Each extension can also add species or ecoregion data. Wind Extension

Main Module Landscape Module Site Landscape Shared Data Species Module Ecoregion Module LANDIS-IICore Other Modules LANDIS-II Core and Extensions Interactions Succession Extension Fire Extension Main Module determines the order and executes succession, disturbance, and output. Wind Extension

LANDIS-II Variable Time Steps

Variable Time Steps Each extension (‘plug-in’) operates at its own time step, from years. Extension types:  succession  disturbance  output Species cohorts match the succession time step. For example: If succession = 20 yrs, then cohorts = , , yrs and so on.

Variable Time Steps Each extension operates at its own time step. For example: Successionevery 10 years Fireevery 3 years Outputevery 5 years 1.The Main Module (MM) operates at an annual time step. 2.Every year, MM checks whether each module need to run. 3.Some modules (e.g. fire) will only alter a sub-set of sites.

Variable Time Steps Example: a single site Succession (S)every 10 years Fire (F)every 3 years Output (O)every 5 years time If a disturbance alters a site, reproduction occurs at that site (add C2). C1 aged into age class C2 (7 yrs old) are placed into age class 1-10 yr. New cohorts (C1) added to age class 1-10.

Variable Time Steps Example: a single site Succession (S)every 10 years Fire (F)every 3 years Output (O)every 5 years time Disturbance alters a site, reproduction occurs (add C2). C1 aged into age class C2 (7 yrs old) and C3 (4 yrs old) are combined into age class 1-10 yr. New cohorts (C1) added to age class year 6: Incorporates presence of C2. Reproduction occurs (add C3).

Eastern Fire Zone Western Fire Zone LAKE WINNIPEG MANITOBA ONTARIO MINNESOTA N. DAKOTA WINNIPEG CANADA USA Variable Time Steps Example: Manitoba Model Forest

1 yr. Fire / Succession 5 yr. Fire / Succession 10 yr. Fire / Succession Variable Time Steps Example: Manitoba Model Forest

Balsam fir White birch Black ash Tamarack White spruce Lowland black spruce Upland black spruce Jack pine Balsam poplar Big-toothed aspen 1 year fire and succession5 year fire and succession 10 year fire and succession Variable Time Steps Example: Manitoba Model Forest

LANDIS-II Workshop Agenda 1.Introduction to LANDIS-II presentation 2.Tour of the Web Site 3.Running the model 4.Input validation 5.Running multiple scenarios 6.Viewing output 7.Calibrating fire rotation periods 8.Future Modifications

LANDIS-II Future Modifications 1.Dependent Upon User Feedback! 2.Insect extension now available 3.Harvesting soon 4.Version 5.1 with biomass and downloadable extensions soon 5.New input/output formats